During this pricing cycle, the international crude oil as a whole showed an upward trend of shock. At first, the market waited for the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and remained cautious. The meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries finally kept the production plan unchanged, and the European and American crude oil futures did not fluctuate greatly. However, due to supply concerns caused by hurricanes, crude oil rose again over the weekend.
The overall rise of international crude oil led to the change rate of domestic reference crude oil from negative to positive, and then continued to rise, which eventually led to the increase of retail price limit of refined oil in this round.
As of the close of September 3, WTI crude oil futures closed at $69.29 per barrel, down 0.7%; Brent crude oil futures price closed at $72.665438 +0 per barrel, down 0.42%.
Last week, WTI futures rose 0.8% and Brent crude oil futures rose 1.3%.
According to Zhuo Chuang information data monitoring model, as of the close of September 3, the change rate of crude oil referred to in the 10 working day in China was 3.43%.
The peak of summer tourism in the United States has ended and seasonal consumption has subsided. At the same time, the global epidemic is still grim, and concerns about the economy and demand still exist. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be stranded.
In addition to the possibility of stranding, the next round of retail price limit of refined oil products may also be raised.
The international crude oil market demand is still contained by the epidemic, and the supply side is slightly bearish. It is difficult for the oil market to have a relay-style rise, with a high probability of adjusting the market before high and then weak, and the trend is weak. However, the rate of change after recalculation is at a low level, so there is still great uncertainty in the next round of retail price limit adjustment of refined oil products, and there is the possibility of grounding or upward adjustment.
(1) The number of acquired units has increased.
On April 15 this year, the newly revised Regulations on the Administration of Grain Circulation was officially implemented, and one of them was particularly touching. We will thoroughly implement the reform spirit of "simplifying administration and decentralizing power, strengthening supervision and improving services", change the way of grain circulation supervision, cancel the administrative license for grain purchase qualifications, strengthen supervision after the event, establish credit files for grain operators, and clarify and improve the supervision and inspection measures of the regulatory authorities.
This means that the grain purchase threshold is cancelled and large troops can run into the grain purchase industry. With the increase in the number of buyers, the so-called "insufficient" grain has become the material for major buyers, occupying the C position, and the price is naturally competitive.
This is good for us ordinary people. If there are girls in the family who are not worried about marriage, the highest bidder wins. In the end, we farmers will benefit. Of course, middlemen are not fools. Who will do unprofitable business, but the profits will flow to us slightly.
(2) International environmental impact
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and bad weather, the grain output of many countries in Europe and America, including Spain, was hit, and the circulation link and time became longer. In addition, the United States has released a large amount of money, and inflation has shrouded countries that rely on the US dollar for settlement, resulting in an increase of more than 20% in international food prices compared with last year, and an increase of more than 50% in some agricultural products.
Although the self-sufficiency rate of staple food in China can basically meet the domestic demand, the dependence of soybeans and corn on imports is still high, thus affecting the trend of domestic food prices.
(3) The market circulation has narrowed.
First of all, the large number of purchasers mentioned above means the increase of social acquisitions, and the existence of a large number of storage units leads to the decrease of grain circulating in the market. In addition, the grain output was officially increased last year. It's actually hazy. This year, people began to question the accuracy of the data.
Secondly, China experienced COVID-19 for the first time on 20 19. The whole country is closed, and cities and villages are closed. Many people, mainly citizens, feel the importance of grain reserves. At that time, major supermarkets were facing a wave of food grabbing, and citizens began to hoard food. And the villagers can't feel it? Of course not. Farmers who have not built granaries for many years have also begun to consciously build granaries to store grain.
Under the superposition of several items, the market circulation decreases, and according to the relationship between supply and demand, the price naturally increases.
(4) Demand rises.
Two years ago, no one would have thought that the price of corn would be ahead of the price of wheat. We should know that there is no protective price for corn except in Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, that is, even if it drops to a catty 10, the government will not care, and it will be completely regulated by the market. Now the price of corn is soaring, which is more than 60% higher than 20 18. Now the purchase price is still above 1.45 yuan.
This is actually related to demand. With the continuous recovery of pig production capacity, due to environmental problems, the demand for industrial corn has greatly increased, the number of laying hens is at a historical high, and broiler breeding is also high, all of which are inseparable from corn and soybeans.
As a substitute for corn, the feed consumption of wheat has increased greatly year by year, especially when the price of corn is at a high level, the demand for wheat will further increase, and the rising demand will lead to higher prices.
The simplest reason for inflation is that the currency circulation is higher than the actual gold reserve. In the past, the dollar was linked to gold, but now it is linked to oil. Most goods in the world are settled in dollars. If the dollar falls excessively, it will inevitably lead to inflation in the United States and the world, especially the soaring energy prices. The development of all countries is based on energy, and the rise in energy prices has led to price increases in all aspects. As a result, inflation has appeared all over the world. In order to pass on the crisis, the United States desperately used dollars to buy things from other countries and turned paper into a real product. After that, most enterprises in other countries went bankrupt because of inflation. Then, the United States began to buy companies around the world. When this step was completed, the United States began to shrink the dollar, making the dollar in short supply. In order to maintain the normal operation of international commodities, countries have to buy dollars in large quantities at high prices. Therefore, the United States has completed the acquisition of wool from all over the world. This is a tried-and-true way for the United States to export inflation and pass on the crisis. Because other countries have no right to speak in the world, they can only swallow their voices.
Is it caused by inflation?
Both fuel and grain and oil are rising in price, which is mainly affected by the international environment. Europe, America, Japan and South Korea are all raising prices. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2000. If something meets international standards, you won't lose money if you don't increase the price for others to buy your cheap goods.