According to related news reports, Saudi Aramco, a Saudi state-owned oil company, released its first marketing statement after the OPEC+meeting. According to the statement document, the price of crude oil sold to Asia in April was lowered by 4-6 USD/barrel; In April, the price of crude oil sold to the United States was lowered by $7/barrel. In addition, informed sources also revealed that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production may increase from about 9.7 million barrels per day this month to 6.5438+million barrels per day in April. The direct impact of Saudi Arabia's "suicide" oil movement is the cliff-like decline in crude oil prices. With the sharp drop in crude oil prices, chemical futures fluctuated lower, including plastic futures. Today, L2005 opened lower, and PP futures plummeted, affected by this. The spot price of plastics also fluctuated and fell. The tensile price of PP market has fallen sharply. The quotation of wire drawing in East China, North China and South China decreased by 150-250 yuan/ton, and the linear price of PE also decreased by 50- 100 yuan/ton. Market sentiment was low, demand was weak and the transaction was bleak.
(3) What is the trend of the crude oil market in the later period, and what impact does it have on the plastic market? First of all, as far as the crude oil market trend is concerned, most operators think it is a bit pessimistic, because OPEC+will increase production as scheduled in the second quarter, and the international crude oil supply will increase substantially. In addition, the spread of overseas COVID-19 accelerated, and the demand for crude oil decreased. Therefore, under the pressure of oversupply, the price of crude oil fell. Moreover, the authoritative research institution Goldman Sachs also lowered the price of Brent crude oil in the second and third quarters, which is expected to be lowered to $30/barrel, and warned that oil distribution may fall to around $20/barrel. It can be seen that the short-term crude oil trend is not optimistic.
(4) So how will the plastic market develop with the decline of crude oil price? Judging from the current plastic futures trend and plastic spot quotation, crude oil plummeted, and the plastic market lacked cost support. Under the background that the downstream work is still slow, the prices of PP and PE are expected to plummet. But in the long run, both PE market and PP market will return to fundamentals. Although the fundamentals are not optimistic at present, they will improve with the recovery of downstream demand. From the perspective of PE market, the fundamentals may improve in the middle and late March, and several sets of devices have been overhauled recently. Secondly, due to health incidents, PE imports will also decrease from March to April, and the demand for greenhouse film will explode in the middle and late March, and the demand will increase substantially. In terms of PP, although the inventory is still at a high level, at present, domestic PP devices are in a small maintenance cycle, and due to the spread of COVID-19, the demand for masks has accelerated, which is beneficial to polypropylene. Secondly, the downstream of PP is about to resume work, and the rigid demand will gradually recover. Therefore, there are also good expectations for the fundamentals of PP. In terms of PVC, domestic PVC is mainly produced by calcium carbide, and the demand side is mainly affected by pipes and profiles. The oil price trend has limited impact on the PVC market, and the PVC market is relatively optimistic.
⑤ To sum up, due to the negative impact of crude oil plunge and futures shock callback, the short-term PP and PE plastic quotations were weakly lowered, but it had little impact on the PVC market, and PVC prices continued to be sorted within a narrow range. In the long run, the trend of PP and PE market will still return to the fundamentals. With the recovery of rigid demand for downstream work, the impact of oil price trend on PE and PP market will gradually weaken.