Factor 1: In fact, the US dollar is the dominant player in the financial market at present and for a long time to come. The price fluctuations of all hard currencies and non-hard currencies are largely affected by the rise and fall of the US dollar. So the first factor to be discussed today is, of course, the relationship between the dollar trend and the gold price trend.
Simply put, the trend of the dollar and the trend of the price of gold are opposite to each other. In other words, when the dollar strengthens and the price rises, the price of gold will inevitably weaken and fall, showing a trend of being suppressed. Similarly, when the dollar weakens and falls, the price of gold will inevitably rise. Perhaps many investors and friends have doubts about this: what factors affect the trend of the US dollar? It's actually quite simple. American officials will release some American economic data from time to time. For example, on the first Friday of each month, at 8: 30 pm Beijing time, the data of non-agricultural employment population in the United States (referred to as non-agricultural data).
Factor 2: Just mentioned that the trend of gold price is opposite to that of US dollar. It should be noted here that the price of gold is positively related to the price of oil. Since both gold and oil are quoted in US dollars in the world trade market, and the US dollar is the main medium of international trade, when the US dollar appreciates or depreciates, it will drive the prices of gold and oil to change in the same direction. With the appreciation of the US dollar, the prices of gold and oil will inevitably fall under pressure. By the same token, when the dollar depreciates, the prices of gold and oil will rise. In recent years, in order to get rid of the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008, the US government has to implement quantitative easing policy to stimulate economic growth. A large number of US dollars were issued, which led to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, which directly led investors to switch from the US dollar to other assets with less risk, such as gold and crude oil. Gold is hard currency, and it is recognized as the best product to preserve and hedge. People transferred more assets to gold to avoid risks, which pushed up the price of gold. As an indispensable resource in today's industry, people think that the depreciation of the US dollar may push up oil prices and buy a lot of oil, which also pushes up oil prices. This is the positive correlation between gold price and oil price. ?
Factor 3: War and political turmoil will also boost spot gold prices. I believe everyone should understand that war will make the region turbulent, affect the local economy, devalue the national currency or turn it into a pile of waste paper. Therefore, people want to preserve their property. Gold is a world currency, which has the function of maintaining and avoiding risks. With the spread of this panic, the demand for gold increased, which in turn pushed up the price of gold.
Factor 4: The impact of the world financial crisis on the price of gold. First of all, I want to say that the world financial crisis is a double-edged sword for our gold market. Why? As you can imagine, in the face of the financial crisis, everyone's first thought must be how to keep their cash from depreciating, so they will seek other investment varieties to replace the banknotes in their hands. At this time, gold is undoubtedly the first choice in everyone's mind, which is a powerful factor to stimulate the rise of gold. However, it must be noted that in the face of the financial crisis, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises will be unable to maintain their operations or even go bankrupt, and the wealth of ordinary investors with a huge base will be seriously reduced. To put it bluntly, retail investors cannot enter this market because of lack of money, which puts some pressure on the price of gold. ?
Factor 5: Introduce the influence of inflation on the price of gold. The reason for inflation is actually very simple, that is, what we usually say is that the currency has depreciated and the money is worthless. For example, at the beginning, 654.38+10,000 yuan can buy a scooter, but it may not be bought after inflation. In the face of inflation, most people's first consideration is how to preserve wealth to avoid negative growth. Like the third and fourth points above, most people will choose to invest in gold, a hard currency. In the face of such a strong seller's market, the skyrocketing gold is a natural thing. ?
Factor six: the change of local bank interest rate, here we mainly look at the change of American bank interest rate. For example, if the United States raises their interest rates, it means that the dollar will appreciate relatively (the money deposited in the bank can earn more interest and enhance purchasing power), and it can also be converted into more other currencies in the global foreign exchange market. First, we have talked about the negative correlation between the dollar and gold, and a strong dollar is bound to suppress the price of gold.