Tao Zhuang: There are two mistakes in judgment.
Since101October 3 1, the A-share market has started to rebound, but the products managed by Tao Zhuang, a private equity tycoon, have not performed well and their net value fluctuates obviously. Tao Zhuang said frankly during the roadshow, "The pressure in the last month is very great."
Reflecting on the recent operation, Tao Zhuang said that in the past month, the sharp fluctuation of net worth was by no means as simple as a stock selection mistake.
He bluntly said that before 10, he thought that the 10 meeting was an important investment opportunity, geopolitical risks would not occur in the near future, and the policy tone was based on stability, so he thought that the market might be a stable situation. Under this judgment, the portfolio focuses on two types of targets. One is consumer stocks that benefit from "liberalization", especially liquor stocks. The second category is "undisclosed" stable growth stocks, such as military industry, wind power and sea breeze. Due to the heavy overall positions, some stocks and indexes have been hedged to protect their portfolios.
"But what I didn't expect was that this complex combination structure encountered a more complicated market." Tao Zhuang said.
Tao Zhuang said that at the beginning of 10, the market expectation took a sharp turn for the worse, the expectation of "liberalization" was broken, and the fundamentals and industry policies were negative. At that time, it was impossible to judge the possibility and had to sell the target meat that benefited from the release of the epidemic. But the growth stocks and short positions in the portfolio are still there, and the situation is very dangerous.
Tao Zhuang concluded that there are two mistakes in this judgment. The first one is that I thought it would be released before the important meeting, so I formed a combination that benefited from the release of the epidemic. The second is that after the important meeting, the attitude towards the epidemic policy tends to be conservative, which leads to the passive construction of the portfolio.
"Unfortunately, we were all wrong at that time. The complex combination can't beat the extreme style rotation of A shares, and the whole combination is difficult to adjust, which leads to the' double kill' including combination and short position, and has experienced a decline that I have never seen since I started my career. " Tao Zhuang said.
Summarize three lessons
For the above operation, Tao Zhuang also sincerely summed up three experiences. First of all, the combination is too complicated, and "full bow and full string" is not desirable. Serious events have destroyed this combination in stages. The second lesson is that individual stocks are too concentrated. In September, it was judged that the economy was weak for a long time, and the positions were concentrated on the growth track. Under the expectation of liberalization, such stocks have become the hardest hit areas. Because the position is too concentrated, it affects the stability of the portfolio. The third is that the transaction judgment is incorrect. When I realize that the epidemic policy really needs to be relaxed, there is nothing I can do.
Tao Zhuang said that in the face of the market style of A-share sharp switching, positions should be more dispersed, so that holders can "sleep". In addition, we simplify the combination and do more subtraction, hoping to seize the investment opportunities brought by liberalization. Next year, we will still carefully select stocks and let the investment return to its original source.
Optimistic about the future market
Focus on the layout of consumption and growth stocks
Looking forward to the future, Tao Zhuang is optimistic about the next market, mainly based on the following three reasons: First, the current epidemic prevention policy is "marginally liberalized". With the strength of China's economy and the diligence of China people, there is hope for both economy and enterprises. Second, in terms of policies, there may be a series of measures to boost the economy and support manufacturing and emerging industries in the future. Third, "liberalization" needs a process. It is not ruled out that the whole economy is still weak, and it is a foregone conclusion that the government will release liquidity. Then, loose liquidity is the most important reason why the stock market is optimistic.
At the same time, Tao Zhuang warned of the risks, and the stock market may fluctuate greatly in the future. He said: after the whole liberalization, the challenge is great, and it is necessary to balance economic development in the swing. In the short term, the economic performance is not good, and the economic data may decline rapidly. However, from the perspective of the global market, the liberalized stock market will not form a trend decline. Because A shares are special, if there is a decline similar to that in early 2020, it will be a very good buying point.
Specific to the future investment direction, Tao Zhuang said that it will mainly focus on two aspects. On the one hand, it will benefit from the direction of epidemic liberalization, such as consumption. The increase of consumer stocks may not be great, but it is relatively certain that there may be fluctuations in the middle, but there will be a definitive repair in the end. When falling, we must seize the opportunity to add positions. On the other hand, it is a growth stock, and it is necessary to find companies that will determine growth in the future through strict stock selection methods, and be optimistic about sectors such as military industry, power equipment and energy storage.