From the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in the summer of 2007 to July of 2008, the asset price bubble in the United States burst in turn, many banks holding subprime loans and financial institutions related to mortgage loans went bankrupt one after another, and the risk and liquidity shortage of financial products further spread, which triggered the continuous turmoil in major financial markets around the world. By July 2008, the American subprime mortgage crisis and the international financial market turmoil, which lasted for nearly a year, seemed to show signs of easing. Some international financial institutions and scholars even optimistically estimate that the worst period of the US subprime mortgage crisis may have passed. But in fact, since this year, the real estate industry in the United States has been in a downturn, and house prices have continued to fall. In the panic, many American bank stocks were sold off, and the phenomenon of bank runs was increasing. Judging from the current real estate market in the United States, there is still room for real estate prices to fall (the relevant institutions predict that there is still room for housing prices to fall by nearly 10%), and the panic that pervades the market has not been eliminated. It can be seen that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is still deepening this year, and it has further penetrated into the American financial field related to mortgage loans. Risks in the financial sector are increasing, and the crisis caused by subprime mortgage may further spread rapidly around the world. The consequences of the crisis getting out of control will be very serious. The American financial crisis has not only reached a more dangerous stage, but also its global impact cannot be underestimated. Therefore, it is still necessary to analyze the formation, essence and recent impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and guard against financial risks.
First, the deepening subprime mortgage crisis in the United States
Indymac Bank, a well-known mortgage bank in the United States, closed down for the first time since July 2008 due to the liquidity crisis caused by a large number of withdrawals from customers (within 65,438+065,438+0 days from the bank payment crisis at the end of June to the closure at the beginning of July, customers withdrew about $6,543,803 billion). This is the second largest failed bank in American history, second only to 1984 National Bank of enoch. Then, the shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage financing institutions supported by the US government, were sold in large quantities, with their share prices falling by 50% in a week and their market value losing by 80% in a year. On July 25th, two small banks, First National Bank in Nevada and First Traditional Bank in California, declared bankruptcy. So far, due to the deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis, three banks in the United States have closed down this year. At present, many banks and mortgage-related financial institutions in the United States are facing the risk of bankruptcy or huge losses, and even big banks such as Citigroup and Wachovia Bank have suffered serious losses this year. According to the published second quarter results, the losses of Citigroup and Wachovia Bank reached $2.5 billion (less than expected) and $8.86 billion respectively. In the second quarter of this year, nearly 65,438+000 banks and mortgage-related financial institutions in the United States experienced different degrees of crisis. The mortgage market in the United States is as high as $6.5 trillion, which is bigger than the national debt market in the United States. At present, subprime mortgage accounts for 12.6% of the whole housing mortgage market. In the subprime mortgage crisis, American lending institutions that specialize in lending to high-risk borrowers can do nothing about the number of defaults and the rise of foreclosure rights of mortgagor. However, the US subprime mortgage crisis penetrated into mortgage-related financial institutions, which made the US real estate market worse. For this reason, many experts and scholars believe that the subprime mortgage crisis has gone beyond the subprime mortgage field and is spreading to banks and financial institutions related to mortgage loans. The new round of subprime mortgage crisis in the United States may be the "prelude" to the financial crisis in the United States, which will gradually evolve into a comprehensive financial crisis and trigger a new round of global financial turmoil.
Because the subprime mortgage loans in the United States are packaged into standardized bonds and sold to investors of various financial institutions (mainly including commercial banks, asset management companies, hedge funds, insurance companies, central banks of some countries, sovereign funds and other financial institutions), coupled with the rapid expansion of global financial market integration, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has deepened and spread to a large extent. The subprime mortgage crisis not only brought great changes to the financial field in the United States, but also expanded to related countries and international markets outside the United States, causing shocks in major global markets, and the stock market reacted more strongly. According to incomplete statistics, at present, the losses related to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States have exceeded 2 trillion US dollars, and the potential losses may exceed 3 trillion US dollars, equivalent to more than 20% of the US GDP. Although the current subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was caused by the bursting of the US real estate price bubble and the rising market interest rate, it exposed some problems, such as lending institutions lowering credit standards, ignoring risk management, borrowers over-lending, and weak supervision by regulatory authorities. Because similar problems always exist in other credit markets, the subprime mortgage crisis has aroused people's attention to other credit market problems and caused more panic. Since the beginning of this year, many banks and mortgage-related financial institutions in the United States have encountered various difficulties, reflecting the long-standing problems and potential risks in the American financial system. Once something goes wrong, it may lead to a full-scale financial crisis.
Judging from the current financial situation in the United States, although the US government has injected a lot of capital into the market and given emergency measures such as special financing to relevant banks and financial institutions related to mortgage loans, it is expected that the interest rate cut may temporarily alleviate the liquidity crisis in the market and prevent a possible full-scale financial crisis. However, due to the current credit crunch and the pressure of the financial market, it is still difficult to eliminate all kinds of crisis hidden dangers. In addition, the international oil and food prices are still high, and the resulting inflationary pressure puts the United States in a dilemma on the federal benchmark interest rate. Since the US federal benchmark interest rate has now dropped to 2%, there is very limited room for further interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Therefore, many uncertainties in the economic and financial situation in the United States can alleviate the further impact of the deepening subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and the prospects for the next few months are still unclear. There is not enough evidence to assert that the US subprime mortgage crisis has bottomed out.
The recent release of a new round of asset price bubbles in the United States shows that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is still deepening and its impact is still continuing. The United States is once again facing the risk of financial sector and economic recession. From an economic point of view, the economic recession and financial turmoil caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States are similar to the previous Great Depression in the United States. This is reflected in the huge losses of subprime loans and the sharp drop in real estate prices of banks and financial institutions, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount of default loans, which has caused serious losses to related financial institutions and sustained economic decline. At the same time, the inflationary pressure brought by the high international food and crude oil prices further weakened the consumption power and the willingness of enterprises to invest, aggravated the economic recession, and made the United States face both economic and financial tests.
Second, the deep-seated reasons for the formation of the US subprime mortgage crisis
The subprime mortgage crisis is a typical financial crisis in which the government encourages residents to buy houses and financial institutions securitize mortgage assets, resulting in a shortage of liquidity. However, from the current subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the appearance is formed by the bursting of the real estate bubble, and the deep-seated fundamental reason is the long-term imbalance between the real economy and the financial sector, which eventually broke out in the form of mortgage-related financial sector crisis. Its essence is the serious crisis in the financial field released by the bursting of the asset price bubble.
Since the American subprime mortgage crisis broke out and spread to the whole world, its main focus has been the deeper international financial market problems, including the imbalance of the international financial market and even the imbalance brought about by the changes in the international financial system. The concept of international financial market imbalance is complex, which includes many financial problems, such as the imbalance of international financial structure and the resulting currency and exchange rate problems, as well as the resulting global economic problems such as trade imbalance and inflation. The imbalance between global economy and international finance was very serious before the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and it spread to the macro field of economic growth and structural adjustment. The root causes are the growth of the US deficit and the global trade imbalance, as well as the depreciation of the US dollar, spreads and disorderly flow of investment funds. Undoubtedly, the global financial imbalance is linked with the development process of economic globalization. Driven by the process of global economic growth and economic globalization, economic growth and increased demand have made some very obvious characteristics in the international financial market, that is, a large amount of funds continue to flow into the real economy of real estate, minerals, energy and other resource industries around the world. Because the speed and scale of global liquidity flowing into the real economy have reached a certain or even crazy level, it not only leads to serious imbalance in the international financial field, but also promotes the expansion of asset price bubbles. With the continuous accumulation of real estate bubbles in the United States in recent years, the crisis of long-term imbalance between the real economy and the financial sector is first reflected in the subprime mortgage crisis. Due to the serious imbalance between the real economy and the financial sector, it is not only difficult to alleviate the subprime mortgage crisis in a short time, but also may further evolve into a full-scale crisis in the financial sector.
Because the growth of economy and demand in recent years is mainly manifested in emerging economies, western developed countries always use this as an excuse to blame asset price bubbles and inflation on emerging economies or developing countries. However, the current imbalance in the international financial field, the inflation of asset price bubbles and inflation are not the crux. From the perspective of the international financial system, the imbalance between developed countries and emerging market economies or developing countries is mainly manifested in the difference in economic growth, which leads to a large number of global liquidity funds flowing into emerging market economies and developing countries. On the one hand, the expansion of economic scale in these countries has digested some investment funds, on the other hand, the growth of economy and demand is also digesting the inflow of "hot money". Even if there is a bubble, it is a bubble in the process of economic and demand growth, and will not trigger a global asset price bubble and inflation. At the same time, global investment funds flow into emerging economies and developing countries, which makes up for the shortage of funds in these countries, is conducive to the balance in the international financial field in a certain sense, and relieves the long-term excess liquidity in developed countries. The excessive capital flow in developed countries is not reflected in the macro-level economic growth, economic structure or trade imbalance, but in the imbalance between the real economy and the financial economy. The American subprime mortgage crisis and its spread in developed countries are the most typical examples. Because the imbalance between real economy and financial economy in developed countries is the most serious, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States first hit western economies, not emerging market economies and developing countries. Therefore, it is obvious that the global asset price bubble and inflation do not come from emerging market economies or developing countries. If there is a certain correlation, it should not be reflected in the financial field of asset price bubbles. Judging from the formation of asset price bubbles, in recent years, some real economy industries in developed countries such as the United States have grown too fast, and global liquidity funds have flowed into the real economy excessively, further worsening the imbalance in the international financial field and making international capital flows more disorderly. At the same time, the rapid development of American housing industry has promoted the rapid rise of housing prices, which has led to the development of mortgage industry and subprime securities market. The expansion of mortgage industry and sub-prime securities market has accelerated the investment of funds raised in financial and economic fields in real estate construction. This escalating cycle of investment forms an asset price bubble, which will eventually collapse. At the same time, the expansion of American mortgage industry and subprime securities market has involved many countries and financial institutions, and the bursting of asset price bubble is bound to spread all over the world. The spread of American subprime mortgage crisis to Asia is not so much a spread as a transfer crisis.
In addition, in recent years, the United States and other developed countries' excessive investment in the real economy of mineral resources, energy and other resource industries, as well as agricultural product subsidies and other issues have laid a "foreshadowing" for global inflation and provided incentives for rampant speculation in mineral products, oil and grain futures markets. In addition, after the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, the global economic and international financial imbalances became more and more serious. In particular, the subprime mortgage crisis led to the bursting of the asset bubble in the United States and the depreciation of the US dollar, which further evolved into problems in the fields of monetary policy and exchange rate in the international money market, making the international financial imbalance more complicated. Some people even predicted that if a new round of economic crisis appeared, it might start from the financial sector.
Third, the broader impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has brought an unprecedented crisis. We need to have a new understanding of the extension of the subprime mortgage crisis and attach great importance to it. At present, the subprime mortgage crisis caused by the sharp drop in American housing prices is still deepening, which not only makes banks engaged in the subprime mortgage crisis everywhere, but also gradually penetrates into the housing mortgage industry other than subprime mortgage. Coupled with market panic, investors fled the real estate market, which aggravated the liquidity crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the massive release of the bubble in the US real estate market may continue to extend to housing mortgage loans and evolve into a broader financial crisis, thus increasing the turmoil in the US financial market and spreading risks to the world.
From a global perspective, the huge impact of the current US subprime mortgage crisis on financial markets in many parts of the world may seriously weaken investors' confidence in the global capital market, eliminate expectations for the recovery of the US economy and real estate market, aggravate the further depreciation of the US dollar, and aggravate the panic atmosphere in the capital market. Any sign of trouble will inevitably lead to increased market turmoil. According to statistics, at present, foreign investors hold about 22% of long-term bonds issued by American government agencies, with a scale of about 1.4 trillion US dollars, among which there are many bonds related to American mortgage financial institutions. China and Japan are the biggest investors in this kind of bonds (of which China accounts for about 38% of foreign exchange reserves and Japan accounts for about 24%). If the US government intervenes in the real estate market and further alleviates the subprime mortgage crisis, it may trigger a new wave of dollar depreciation, which will directly lead to heavy losses for many banks and financial institutions holding huge dollar bonds. In particular, once such bonds shrink, China and Japan will bear the brunt. Judging from the situation in Japan, the most American institutional bonds held by Japan are private company and commercial bank bonds. In recent years, Japanese banks have been investing heavily in overseas bonds, such as institutional securities, because the demand for Japanese corporate loans has been sluggish, while customer deposits have continued to grow. American institutional bonds are considered to be safe and reliable and can provide high returns. American institutional bonds have become the main investment channels for Japanese private companies and commercial banks, so Japanese private companies and commercial banks are more seriously affected, which may directly lead to the turmoil in Japanese financial markets. Japan's consistent practice is to transfer funds from overseas to stabilize the domestic market and transfer the domestic crisis to other overseas financial markets in disguise, which has the most extensive impact on the Asian region. China and Japan are very different. Most of China's US institutional bonds are held by the government in the form of foreign exchange reserves, and China has not been spared by the new round of subprime mortgage crisis in the United States (according to the data of the US Treasury Department, China's "Fannie Mae" and "Freddie Mac" bonds reached $376 billion). In addition, the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States not only led to further tightening of the global credit market, but also affected the stock market and the real estate sector. As the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has shaken the whole international financial field, investors are worried that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States will further expand and the American economy will be further negatively affected, and they have thrown out stocks one after another, lowering the financial stocks related to real estate and mortgage loans. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the total market value of the world's 50 major stock markets has sharply decreased to less than 53 trillion US dollars. Compared with last year's peak period, the market value has evaporated by at least 10 trillion US dollars, with an average decline of more than 17%. Among them, real estate stocks in the stock market have plummeted repeatedly. In less than seven months, global real estate stocks fell by more than 50%, at least by 10%, and the global stock market fell the most.
Of course, although the direct impact of the continuation of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China is not outstanding, the indirect impact is inevitable. First of all, the new round of subprime mortgage crisis in the United States means that the external financial environment is more uncertain, especially the bond investors in developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan are unwilling to bear more risks brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis, which is bound to pass on the crisis. Secondly, since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, China has become a "safe haven" for the subprime mortgage crisis due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the obvious expectation of the future appreciation of the China market. Especially in the case that the expectation of RMB appreciation has not changed, at present, international "hot money" not only shows no signs of leaving China, but also keeps pouring in. Although a large amount of capital inflow is not necessarily a bad thing, at least it makes China's financial market full of liquidity, because most of the "hot money" flowing into China's financial market and real estate industry is speculative, it will wait for opportunities in the reasonable valuation area of the financial and real estate markets, and even make waves, which increases the liquidity risk of domestic financial and real estate markets. In addition, speculative "hot money" has certain concealment. The carrier of "hot money" is diverse and difficult to monitor, and its scale and trend are difficult to judge, which increases the uncertainty of China's capital market, so the management difficulty is further increased. Although the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is not closely related to financial institutions in China, it has certain implications after all, including:
(1) As some financial institutions in China are involved in American mortgage bonds to varying degrees, the losses are huge and the financial sector is facing greater risks. According to the official statistics of the United States, by the end of May 2008, American institutional bonds held by financial institutions in China reached $433.3 billion. If the US economy is not effectively improved, the valuation of the mortgage bond asset market will continue to decline, not only will the global economy fall into a serious crisis, asset variables will be revalued, but financial institutions in China will also face irreparable losses.
(2) The security of the state's foreign exchange reserve assets is threatened. Since most of China's foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange assets are in US dollars, if the US subprime mortgage crisis continues to deepen, the real value of China's large amount of foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange assets in US dollars will be greatly reduced, and it will bear the huge risks brought by the continuous deepening of the US subprime mortgage crisis.
(3) The pressure of RMB appreciation and export decline is further increased. With the possibility of the deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the increase of the risk of economic recession in the United States, it is difficult to change the weakness of the US dollar in the short term. Driven by the depreciation of the US dollar, the pressure of RMB appreciation will further increase. The deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the continuous depreciation of the US dollar will reduce the investment and consumption confidence of American residents, lead to the decline of China's exports to the United States, and worsen the living conditions of some export enterprises in China.
(D) Macro-control is more difficult. Affected by the depreciation of the dollar. The prices of international commodities such as grain, crude oil and gold denominated in dollars are likely to rise further, and global inflation will continue to deteriorate. The increase of inflation risk will increase the difficulty of macro-control in China.
(5) The risks in the stock market and capital market have increased. As the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is difficult to solve in a short time, the market is pessimistic about the economic prospects of the United States and the world, which may lead to the continued downturn in the United States and even the global stock market, and the risks of the global stock market, including the China stock market, will continue to increase. If the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States continues to evolve, some overseas institutions that have invested in China's capital market may withdraw their funds, and China's capital market and stock market will bear greater risks.
In addition, from the perspective of the affordability of financial institutions, the subprime loan market in the United States is only a part of the loan market, and the main body is diversified. Even if these financial institutions go bankrupt, the loss of state-owned assets will not be too great. However, China is different. Many local governments regard the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the economy. Land transfer income and related taxes account for a considerable part of local government revenue. In addition, some local governments have failed to implement macro-control policies for real estate, so to some extent, local governments are responsible for high housing prices. At the same time, the mortgage in China's loan market is basically monopolized by several major state-owned commercial banks, and even other commercial banks have a certain scale of state-owned assets, so the real estate bubble is also a bubble of state-owned assets. Although the impact of the current US subprime mortgage crisis on China's real estate and real estate-related financial fields is not obvious, it does not mean that hidden dangers similar to the US subprime mortgage crisis do not exist, so it is necessary to strengthen risk assessment. There are many problems worthy of in-depth study and consideration in the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and we can't just pay attention to superficial phenomena.
Fourth, the global adjustment after the US subprime mortgage crisis.
Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global stock market has plummeted many times, the international money market has continued to fluctuate, the prices of financial commodities have been rising, and some large financial institutions have suffered huge losses or closed down. The US government injected capital, cut interest rates and cut taxes to save the market, but it still didn't help. There are indications that the current subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has triggered a crisis in the financial field, and the world is also facing a serious financial crisis. Therefore, the global adjustment after the US subprime mortgage crisis is imperative.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States reflects the bursting of asset price bubbles and the imbalance between the real economy and the financial sector. 10 years of overheating in the real economy has pushed up energy and food prices, and unbearable inflationary pressure will inevitably be manifested through the financial crisis. Although the emergence of subprime mortgage crisis is a bubble in American mortgage industry and subprime securities market, to alleviate the deterioration of subprime mortgage crisis, we must adjust from the imbalance between real economy and financial economy. This is a global adjustment, and the adjustment process will be long and has many uncertainties. From a deeper perspective, the subprime mortgage crisis and asset price bubble are actually the imbalance between the real economy and the financial economy, which is very different from the imbalance of the economic structure. The imbalance of economic structure can be adjusted in a short time through relevant policies and measures, while the imbalance in the real economy and the financial sector is the adjustment between the two major economies. It is difficult to achieve a relative balance in the short term. Because in the process of globalization, the main component of global economic imbalance is the imbalance between real economy and financial economy, and there are many globalization factors.
At present, affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global financial market turmoil is further manifested, and the global economic structure is facing a new round of comprehensive adjustment, mainly including three aspects. First, internal adjustment in developed countries. Due to the serious imbalance between the real economy and the financial economy among developed countries, the rift between the United States and other western developed countries, which has long dominated the international financial field, cannot be bridged and the differences are difficult to eliminate. So the adjustment difficulty can be imagined. The second is the adjustment between developed countries and emerging market economies and developing countries. This is not so much an adjustment as a game, which is actually a process of changes in the international financial structure. The dominant position of the United States will further decline and emerging market economies will play a more important role. The third is economic restructuring. The price bubble and subprime mortgage crisis caused by the imbalance between the real economy and the financial economy, as well as the global inflation, low market confidence and panic, trade balance, distorted energy and food prices and rampant speculation in the futures market, will eventually be completely solved after the global real economy and financial economy are rebalanced.
At present, there are indications that not only the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is far from over, but also the possibility of triggering a new round of subprime mortgage crisis still exists and continues to spread around the world. Even if the subprime mortgage crisis no longer worsens or eases, its lagging influence will be further manifested in the second half of the year. So far, American real estate is still facing difficulties, and may even continue to deteriorate. Affected by it, the American economy still faces many difficulties such as financial market turmoil, which will undoubtedly drag down the global economy. The American economy is the most important engine of the global economy. The United States is not only the largest consumer market in the world, but also the largest foreign investor. These two aspects can promote and stimulate the development of global economy. If the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States deepens further, it will lead to a recession in the United States, which will worsen the American consumer market and seriously affect the sales of goods in the United States in various regions of the world. In the investment field, if the US financial market deteriorates further, it will affect the stability of the global financial field. Therefore, there are still great uncertainties in the development and impact of the current subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, especially due to high oil prices, high food prices, the depreciation of the US dollar and the bursting of the asset bubble. Inflation may further intensify in the second half of the year, the slowdown of economic growth is a foregone conclusion, and the global economy will also enter a period of comprehensive adjustment.