Accurately judging the movement direction and its law is the premise of accurate speculation. On the basis of a lot of research and practice, I have established a set of accurate judgment methods, that is, the judgment rule of peak-valley double deviation. Its contents are as follows:
Both peaks and valleys deviate from the law.
1, trend market judgment:
When the peaks and troughs of the recent K-line are consistent with those of the recent MACD, it indicates that the market is in a trend. -the peaks and valleys are synchronized and the market continues.
In short: the peaks and valleys are in the same direction, and the market is the trend. The market will still run in the original direction, as shown on the right of the above picture.
2. Top inversion judgment:
When the nearest trough line of K-line is opposite to the trough line of MACD and the future peak line is opposite, it proves that the top of the market has reversed and the trend has fallen. -the valley before the peak, see the top down.
In short: on the way up, as long as the valley value deviates first, then the peak value deviates, the market peaks and then falls, as shown in the middle structure of the above figure.
Note: When there is only valley deviation or only peak deviation, it cannot be regarded as the peak of the market. Because, only when there is a valley deviation, it means that the main cost of market bulls has risen, and it is not necessarily that the market will no longer hit a new high! Only the peak deviation can only show that the profitability of the market bulls is reduced, but it does not rule out the skyrocketing in the later period!
3. Bottom inversion judgment:
When the nearest trough line of K-line is opposite to the peak line of MACD, and the future trough line is also opposite, it proves that the market bottom is reversed and the trend is rising. -peak first and then valley, bottoming out.
In short: in the process of decline, as long as there is a peak deviation first and then a valley deviation, the market will bottom out and then rise, as shown in the structure on the left above.
Note: Only peak deviation or valley deviation can not be regarded as the bottom of the market. Because, only the peak deviation appears, which means that the main cost of short positions in the market rises, and it is not certain that the market will no longer innovate low! Only the valley deviation can only show that the profitability of short sellers in the market is reduced, but it does not rule out that there will be a plunge in the later period!
Judgment of Reversing Market after Peak-valley Mutation
The main method of cheating in the middle-
Note: Another inversion criterion-MACD deviation intensity.
The most important law of market reversal is discussed above, and another classic reversal structure is discussed below. That is, market reversal =MACD indicator is synchronized with K line +(KDJ indicator/force line) deviates from K line.
Judging from the previous double deviation operation, it is found that the reversal form is insufficient and it is difficult to open a position. If KDJ deviates from the K line and the external force line deviates from the K line to form a resultant force, it can be seen that it will inevitably reverse.
Conclusion:
From the above discussion, it can be concluded that the standard structure of market reversal is as follows:
Standard 1: double deviation structure = When =MACD indicator and K-line form have double deviation conditions, the market will reverse;
Features: The trend fluctuates greatly in the later period, generally twice as much as before the market continues.
Standard 2: Synchronous structure = When =MACD indicator is synchronized with K-line form, but the forms of power line and KDJ indicator deviate from the conditions, the market reverses.
Features: The fluctuation range of the later trend is relatively small, which is generally 1 times of the previous trend.
Continuous motion of one-way deviation
The market was forced to expand-
Generally speaking, when MACD and K-line form a single structural deviation (that is, peak deviation or valley deviation), the general trend market will continue to run along its double deviation structure, thus completing the natural reversal of the market.
However, due to the strong manipulation of market players, sometimes it will not continue to form a market reversal, but will continue to rise or fall strongly, thus forming a trend structure that forcibly extends the market. As shown in the following figure, the double deviation basically formed by the market should have been natural and upward, just controlled by the main force, and the market backhand continued to fall rapidly, thus forming a forced extension of the decline.
In the case of forcibly extending the market trend, the following conditions must generally be met:
1, on the k line of 15 minutes, it is consistent with the previous law and has corresponding "excess energy" (the force line does not tend to zero);
2. When the market continues the natural trend, it will encounter great resistance oppression, thus forming multiple market resistance.
3. In the long run, it has the characteristics of trend unity and consistency.