According to the current market analysis, it is judged that the overall cost of urea will move down in 2022, and the demand for replenishment caused by weak winter storage in the first half of the year is expected to support the price of urea; In the second half of 2022, the supply and demand structure may be weak and prices may go down. It is suggested that the operation should be based on more first and then empty. The price range is between 0/500-2,500 yuan per ton/kloc. In addition, we need to pay close attention to changes in export policies, changes in raw material prices and the impact of the epidemic.

In 2022, the overall cost of urea is expected to move down, and the supply and demand pattern is weak. On the supply side, the supply of urea may be excessive in 2022. It is estimated that the new production capacity will be 6.5438+0.5 million tons, but the growth rate will slow down; As exports are still expected to be limited, production may decline.

On the demand side, agricultural demand will remain relatively stable in 2022, and seasonal factors may increase. In terms of industrial demand, the main industrial demand of urea is wood-based panels and melamine, which is closely related to the real estate market. Considering that real estate is in the down cycle in 2022, the demand of urea industry is likely to be weak.

In 2022, it is expected that the inventory peak will appear after the Spring Festival 1-2 weeks, and then the agricultural demand will start to drive the inventory of urea enterprises to continue to fall; The mid-year low of urea inventory appeared in the third quarter, the fluctuation of urea inventory rebounded in the fourth quarter, and the second peak appeared at the end of 1 1. In terms of cost, the main raw material of urea production in China is coal, and the price of urea is highly positively correlated with the price of coal.