(1) In the short term, the relationship between international oil supply and demand is generally loose, but we should pay close attention to the growth of oil consumption in China.
In the short term, the total supply can meet the total demand, and there will be no large-scale oil supply shortage. According to the statistics in 2002, the remaining proven recoverable reserves of global oil were 6543.8+0427 billion tons, and the proven reserves increased. The annual consumption of the world's top ten oil consuming countries is 3.52 billion tons, and the annual output of the world's top ten oil producing countries is 3.59 billion tons. Supply and demand are basically balanced, with a slight surplus. However, we should pay close attention to the increase of oil demand and the rapid growth of imported oil in China. 1995, China's oil consumption was1580,000 tons, ranking third in the world. In 2002, China's oil consumption was 246 million tons, ranking second in the world. In 2003, the global oil trade volume was 2 billion tons, and China imported 90 million tons of oil, accounting for 4.5% of the world and 34% of China's total oil consumption. While China's oil consumption is increasing year by year, China's dependence on imported oil is also increasing. By 20 10, the oil demand in China will reach 350 million tons, and the oil import will reach10.50 billion tons, so the oil demand will depend on imports to a great extent. Although China is the second largest oil consumer in the world, its impact on international oil prices is less than 0. 1%. China needs to adopt an active strategy to change from a passive recipient of international prices to a positive influencer.
(2) Global oil prices will remain high.
At present, the direct reasons for pushing the international oil price to hover at a high level are as follows:
The first is the recovery of the world economy. With the rapid economic growth in the United States, Japan and China, as well as the global economy, the demand for oil has greatly increased. The world oil forecast report from 2004 to 2005 released by the Intelligence Bureau of the US Department of Energy shows that the world oil demand will increase substantially. After the world oil demand increased by 1.8% in 2003, the increase in 2004-2005 may exceed 2%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the world oil demand will increase by 1 10,000 barrels per day in 2004, and in March, the demand increase will be raised to 1.65 million barrels per day, reaching 79.9 million barrels per day. The principle of economics tells us that in the short term, when the demand rises rapidly and the supply cannot increase correspondingly, the price increase is inevitable. This is the most basic and powerful explanation for the current rise in oil prices.
Second, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to adopt the policy of limiting production and protecting prices. In particular, the exchange rate of the US dollar is falling, and in order to reduce losses, oil prices will continue to increase. Although the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced in early June that the oil production will increase by 2 million barrels in July and 500,000 barrels in August, the actual increase is limited, because the oil production of OPEC countries has actually greatly exceeded the output. As the exchange rate of the US dollar continues to weaken, OPEC countries will be more determined to raise oil prices.
Third, the proven recoverable oil reserves are insufficient. Oil is a strategic commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and it is also a non-renewable resource. According to experts' analysis, it has been basically found that the world oil production will reach its peak before 20 15. After the decline in oil production, there will be a shortage of oil supply. Up to now, human beings use about 80 million barrels of oil every day, 1 year about 30 billion barrels. At present, the proven recoverable oil reserves are 1 trillion barrels, and it is estimated that there are still 1 trillion barrels of undiscovered oil reserves, which is difficult to exploit and costly. It will be more difficult to exploit new oil resources in the future.
Fourth, oil speculation has pushed up oil prices. In the absence of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand, the turmoil in the oil market is largely caused by market speculation. The exchange rate of the US dollar fell against major international currencies, and the speculation of oil futures by international hot money, including hedge funds, kept the oil price at a high level. Futures speculation behind the oil market is often the black hand to manipulate oil price fluctuations. At present, the trading volume of oil futures is about several times that of spot trading. It is estimated that in the oil futures market, the real demanders only account for 30% of the total trading volume, and the rest are arbitrageurs.
The fifth is the influence of political factors. At present, the domestic situation in the Gulf region and some oil-producing countries is turbulent, the political situation in major international oil-producing countries, including Iraq, is still turbulent, and terrorist activities have occurred one after another around the world, which makes the oil production of major oil-producing countries face the risk of being blocked at any time and seriously affects the stability of the international oil market.
According to expert analysis, from the overall and long-term point of view, the decline of oil prices will be short-lived, while the rise and climb are long-term trends. In the near future, the distorted oil price will slowly fall back after the adjustment of the market and the contest of various forces, but the space for falling back will be very limited, and it is expected to fluctuate between 28-33 US dollars per barrel.