Affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19 and traffic supervision, the sales and transportation of live pigs are not very smooth, and the market price of live pigs in the north and south still insists on bottom fluctuation.
At the same time, it is the off-season of seasonal consumption, and the impact of the epidemic on catering, travel and income is also unlucky.
In the continuous downturn of the spot market for live pigs, the futures market also ran out of a record low price! The main contracts of live pig futures of Dashang Institute 1 1 and 2205 (May 2022) hit new lows, closing at 12525 yuan/ton, falling for four days in five trading days, with a drop of 18.96% since 2022.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of April 1 1 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 17.83 yuan/kg, down 2. 1% from last Friday and 23.64 yuan/kg from the beginning of the year.
The decline in pig prices still exists, and it will take time for the productivity of fertile sows to decrease.
For farmers, the current pig price fluctuates at a low level, while the feed price remains at a high level, and the pressure on the cost of raising pigs faced by farmers is still expanding. Therefore, it can be guessed from the recent signs that the de-capacity of pig breeding will accelerate.
Recently, listed companies released the data of pig slaughter in March, and the number of pigs slaughtered in Mu Yuan was 5.986 million, up11.3% year-on-year, setting a new record. The monthly pig slaughter of listed companies such as Shi Wen, New Hope and Aonong Bio all increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
In addition, in February, 2022, the number of fertile sows was 42.682 million, which was more than 200,000 fewer than that in June (54.38+1 0), and this figure was more than110,000 more than the normal figure of 4 1 10,000.
Therefore, it may take time for the productivity of fertile sows to decrease.
Pig futures and spot prices are still at the bottom.
Judging from the trend of the whole hog market, due to the rising inertia and weak cost of hog slaughter in the middle and late April, it is particularly likely that the hog price will face loose supply and demand again, and there is still room for slaughter enterprises to lower the hog price.
Although the average purchase price of grass-roots pigs has dropped to 12.2~ 13 yuan/kg, the pig price has not reached the real bottom.
In terms of pig futures, the 2205 contract is in a weak shock pattern recently.
According to the data of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is still at a high level in the second quarter, but due to the seasonal demand, the pork cost is at the lowest level in the whole year from March to May, and the pig price in the second quarter is still weakly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.
Unusual pig cycle
Pig farming is an industry with obvious cyclical attributes.
After entering 2 1 century, China has experienced four pig cycles, each lasting about 4 years.
When the price of pork is high, it goes up periodically.
At this time, the overall profit of the industry has also risen.
Seeing profitability, pig enterprises began to expand production capacity, and oversupply eventually led to a decline in pork prices.
Pig enterprises have to bear the losses in the process of de-capacity.
In 20 18, the African swine fever epidemic became the fuse of a new pig cycle. In 20 1905, the number of fertile sows decreased to 1905, a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%.
The amount of live pigs slaughtered has also dropped sharply, resulting in a high price of live pigs.
Correspondingly, the price of pork kept hitting record highs, once soaring to 56 yuan/kg, up 220% year-on-year.
Seeing that the pig industry is so profiteering, players in the industry have greatly expanded their production capacity, and laymen outside the industry have also set foot in the pig industry.
However, in the second half of 20021year, pork prices dropped sharply, commodity prices soared, and the cost of pig feed further squeezed the profit space of pig enterprises, which was followed by losses of pig enterprises.
In the past, the loss per pig in pig cycle varied from 100-300 yuan. In this pig cycle, the loss of each pig even crossed 500 yuan, and even reached 1 1,000 yuan at the highest.
In order to reduce losses, in July of 20021year, many pig enterprises began to actively reduce production capacity and remove chemical energy to breed sows.
Although the number of fertile sows has decreased, most farms (households) are still full of hope for the future and reluctant to sell, so the productivity of fertile sows has decreased relatively slowly, resulting in a high stock of sows.
Based on this, many pig enterprises may also experience the profit corrosion caused by the low pig price for a period of time.
For many pig enterprises that lost money before, this also means that the winter of the pig industry will not come to an abrupt end.