Rice, commonly known as rice, is a staple food variety in China, which is divided into indica rice and japonica rice. Indica rice grains are generally rectangular and slender, and japonica rice grains are generally oval. According to the different planting periods of rice, rice can be divided into three categories: early rice, middle rice and late rice. Early rice is almost a single indica rice, that is, early indica rice. Therefore, early indica rice is the earliest one-season rice in the market and the first-season food crop planted and harvested that year.

Early indica rice can be divided into ordinary early indica rice (conventional) and high quality early indica rice. Ordinary early indica rice is generally used for storage, and individual processing enterprises mainly process high-quality early indica rice. The proportion of high-quality early indica rice is also very large. Ordinary early indica rice and high-quality early indica rice are mainly distinguished according to grain type and belly white. According to the survey, the good quality rates of early indica rice, medium indica rice and late indica rice are 15%, 28% and 76% respectively.

In the spot, early indica rice can also be divided into two types: long grain type and short grain type. They have different uses and different prices. The short grain type is mainly rice flour, and the long grain type is mainly rations. The spot market will buy and store separately. It is generally believed that long grain yield: short grain yield = 6: 4.

Early indica rice has a wide range of uses, mainly used in rations, industrial grain, feed grain, medicine and chemical raw materials, and has good storage resistance, good nutritional quality and high sanitary quality.

In recent years, the price of early indica rice in China has been basically stable, and the national minimum purchase price has increased year by year. Dominated by policy factors, the trend of strong rice and weak rice is obvious, and the price fluctuation of strong japonica rice and weak indica rice has obvious seasonal characteristics.

1 and the production of early indica rice

China early indica rice planting areas include Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hubei, Anhui, Fujian, Zhejiang,

Hainan, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Chongqing 13 provinces (regions), including Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi and Guangdong.

The output of the four provinces (regions) with the largest planting area and output of early indica rice in China is above 5 million tons, accounting for about 80% of the whole country.

In the past ten years, the domestic early indica rice output generally showed a trend of high before and then low, and then rebounded slightly, reaching a maximum of 33.97 million tons in 200 1 year and a minimum of 29.45 million tons in 2003, with a decrease of 13%. In 20 12, the rice yield was 204.29 million tons, up by 1.63% year-on-year, and it was a bumper harvest for 9 consecutive years. Among them, the output of early indica rice was 33.29 million tons, up 1.65% year-on-year.

2. Consumption of early indica rice

Rice is the most basic food for Chinese residents, and the increase of its terminal consumption is mainly caused by population growth, which determines that the growth of rice consumption in China is relatively slow. The industry and feed consumption of rice are mainly concentrated in early indica rice, which has little influence on the overall spot market of rice because of its small proportion in the total rice output. According to the research data of relevant institutions, the total rice consumption in 12/ 13 years was 654.38+96 million tons, and the total early rice consumption was 32.88 million tons.

Generally speaking, in recent years, the total domestic rice consumption has been basically stable at around 1.85- 1.95 billion tons. In 20 12, domestic rice successfully increased for nine consecutive years, but due to the synchronous growth of demand, the overall supply and demand still showed a tight balance. In 20 12, the international trade import of rice in China increased significantly. China's rice imports will quadruple this year, reaching a record 2.5 million tons, making it the second largest rice importer in the world.

Two, early indica rice futures exchange and code

Early indica rice futures exchange: Zhengzhou commodity exchange

Transaction code: RI

Third, the early indica rice futures contract

Four, the influencing factors of early indica rice futures price fluctuations

With the deepening of the marketization of rice production and circulation and the acceleration of the process, the rice market is no longer a separate interpretation, which is not only influenced by national policy factors, supply and demand of early indica rice and other fundamental factors, but also closely related to the national macroeconomic development, linked to the prices of other agricultural products, and influenced by uncontrollable factors such as weather, natural disasters and psychology.

Supply and demand are the fundamental factors that determine the price of rice. The supply side is mainly composed of three aspects: (1) pre-inventory. It is an important part of the total output. The amount of pre-inventory reflects the tight supply, rising prices in short supply and abundant prices in short supply. (2) Current output. At present, the yield is mainly affected by planting area and unit yield. The main factors affecting the planting area are the comparison between farmers and other agricultural products, expected annualized income, national agricultural policies and other factors, and the main factors affecting the output per unit area are weather and scientific and technological level. It is necessary to study the changes of rice planting area, climate and crop production conditions, production costs and government agricultural policies. (3) the import volume of commodities. The actual import volume of commodities often changes for political or economic reasons. Therefore, we should know and master the changes of international situation, price level, import policy and import volume as soon as possible.

Demand: usually consists of domestic consumption, export volume and final commodity balance. (1) Domestic consumption. It is not a fixed constant, but varies under the influence of many factors. It mainly includes: changes in consumer purchasing power, changes in population growth and structure, and government income and employment policies. (2) export volume. Under the condition of a certain output, the increase of export volume will reduce the supply in the domestic market; On the contrary, a decrease in export volume will increase domestic supply. (3) Commodity balance at the end of the period. This is one of the most important data to analyze the trend of futures commodity prices. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods exceeds demand and the futures price may fall; On the contrary, it will rise.

From the production situation over the years, due to the particularity of early indica rice varieties, agricultural policies, planting structure adjustment, scientific and technological progress and other factors have great influence on the area and yield of early indica rice, which correspondingly causes the price fluctuation of early indica rice. In addition, the change of early indica rice inventory, the rotation of reserve rice, the quantity and price of grain sold in the market also affect the supply of early indica rice, thus affecting the price of early indica rice. From the consumption point of view, China's early indica rice is mainly used for rations, national reserves, industry and feed consumption, showing a steady growth momentum as a whole. As a large number of early indica rice are used for storage and storage, industrial and feed consumption has also increased rapidly in recent years, which has obvious impact on the market, especially the demand for conventional varieties is in short supply, and there is still room for price increase. In addition, festivals and group consumption effects, changes in import and export volume will also affect the staged demand of early indica rice market.

The national grain industry policy affects or even dominates the supply, demand and price of early indica rice. First, various policies for benefiting farmers have improved farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, promoted grain production, ensured grain planting area and output, and also formed a strong support for the area and output of early indica rice; Secondly, the minimum purchase price policy of early indica rice and macro-control policies such as public auction and reserve basically dominate the price trend of early indica rice. In order to stabilize the production of early indica rice and protect farmers' interests, the state has implemented the policy of minimum purchase price of early indica rice in Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei and Anhui provinces since 2004, and Guangxi was also included in the policy in 2008. In 2005 and 2006, because the market price was lower than the minimum purchase price, the policy was introduced for two consecutive years, which achieved obvious market support effect and protected farmers' interests.

The purchasing market situation of early indica rice directly affects the purchasing price trend. After the grain purchasing market was fully liberalized in 2004, the participants in the early indica rice purchasing market increased, including state-owned grain purchasing and storage enterprises and local purchasing and storage enterprises, as well as industrialized leading enterprises, private processing enterprises and individual traders. Fierce competition has pushed up the price of early indica rice market.

Corn and wheat are both important food crops, and whether their demand is strong or not can best reflect the quality of agricultural economy. In the long run, the prices of corn and wheat have a strong correlation with the development speed of agricultural economy. The relationship between the consumption price of early indica rice and mid-late indica rice, japonica rice, wheat and corn is the most important, and the changes in the yield, price and consumption of these substitutes will have a direct or indirect impact on the price of early indica rice. The price relationship between early indica rice and other agricultural products will affect the supply and demand of early indica rice, and then affect the production and sales of early indica rice, leading to the change of its future price trend.

The change of production cost of early indica rice, such as seed price, chemical fertilizer and pesticide, directly leads to the change of rice price. Its expenses mainly include: seed fee, chemical fertilizer fee, pesticide fee, employee harvesting fee, agricultural film fee, rental operation fee, mechanical operation fee, fuel power fee, technical service fee, tool material fee, maintenance fee, etc.

The expected annualized income of early indica rice cost is one of the main factors affecting farmers' enthusiasm for planting. The cost of early indica rice has a certain influence on the market price. If the market price of food is too low, farmers will be reluctant to sell it. The expected annualized expected income will affect farmers' planting arrangements for the next year. If the expected annualized income increases, farmers may increase the planting area, and vice versa.

The price of early indica rice showed obvious seasonal fluctuation law. Generally speaking, 9- 10, February 12 and February 12 are the peak consumption seasons, and the price of early indica rice rises; From March to May, 10- 1 1 is a seasonal off-season, with weak demand and usually falling prices; June every year is a period of green and yellow, and prices begin to pick up; July, August and September are the peak season for purchasing, and the price of early indica rice usually rises.

Early indica rice is easily affected by natural disasters such as weather, drought, typhoon, rainstorm, flood, pests and diseases during its growth period, and has become the object of market speculation. At the same time, producers and sellers often have different views on the market, and their bullish or bearish psychology will further affect their trading behavior. If farmers are reluctant to sell, the market grain source is limited, which will naturally push up prices.

Over the years, China's rice self-sufficiency rate is high, the import and export volume is small, the correlation with the international market is low, and the rice price is less affected by the international market. The same is true for early indica rice, and its price is mainly determined by domestic factors. However, with the development of international integration, the price linkage between China's main grain varieties and international grain varieties has been continuously strengthened. The rise and fall of foreign food prices directly affect the domestic market expectations, and its impact on the price of early indica rice can not be ignored.

Verb (abbreviation for verb) is the main source of market information.

Because early indica rice is mainly influenced by national policies, it has little linkage with external markets and surrounding markets. In general, we can pay attention to the minimum purchase price, the auction price of early indica rice, the national wholesale price of grain and oil, the wholesale price of grain and oil in Jiujiang, the forward price of the southern trading market, and the futures price of corn and wheat.