The two national conferences, which have attracted much attention, are in full swing. The government work report has given the market great confidence. Delegates and Committee members expressed their enthusiasm for making suggestions and suggestions to maintain the steady and rapid economic growth in China. The confidence in overcoming difficulties and the determination to maintain growth conveyed by the two sessions to the market have made the performance of the A-share market particularly outstanding. However, what everyone is most concerned about is whether and when all the measures can really achieve results. In the case that the stock market has anticipated all favorable policies, what expectations can promote the index by going up one flight of stairs?
Short-term rising edge confidence
The two markets moved to the vicinity of the half-year line, just in time for the two sessions. During this period, we can see various suggestions made by the deputies on the stock market. In interviews with reporters from all walks of life, investors only know that some information is relatively transparent, such as margin financing and securities lending. Now it seems that everything is ready, the Growth Enterprise Market is ready, and the stock index futures have gone through the relevant procedures. Investors' favorable expectations seem to be getting closer and closer in time, which has brought great confidence support to investors' transactions. In addition, we have noticed that the downward adjustment of dividend income tax, the continuous decline of stamp duty, the establishment of CIC II and the reorganization of central enterprises have all made the market see the possible benefits in the future. These potential benefits were revealed from reporters' reports through the speeches of the deputies, which eventually contributed to the rapid rise of the index.
Good data supports short-term gains
In addition to the benefits of NPC and CPPCC meetings, some recent macroeconomic data have also changed investors' expectations. For example, on the basis that the bank's new loans in June reached 1.6 trillion, it is expected that the new loans in February will also exceed 1 trillion, and the information conveyed by the government work report is that the new loans in 2009 exceeded 5 trillion, which is expected to be good for the stock market. In February, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China was 45. 1%, which has risen for the third consecutive month. It is said that the signs of China's economic recovery from the bottom are obvious.
The author believes that due to the convening of the two sessions, the market seems to hear and see more positive factors, while some negative factors are marginalized, such as the decline in corporate performance, which will be directly reflected in the 2008 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2009; For example, in the announcement information, we often see the selling pressure of non-size; The downward trend of the surrounding stock markets continued, and external demand continued to deteriorate. If we compare these with the positive results during the two sessions, it may just be a draw. It is quite difficult for the Shanghai Composite Index to conquer the huge transaction accumulation area near 2300-2400 points in a short time.
Pull up the index stock and carefully leave a feather on the ground.
The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from above 2000 points and broke through the 2200 mark in just two trading days. The main contributors to the surge in the index are China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Ping An, while other stocks are following suit. It is worth noting that some funds' heavy stocks have experienced greater selling pressure. If from the fundamentals of listed companies, including banking, insurance, real estate, petrochemical and other industries, there is no reason to stimulate the stock price to continue to rise, and this capital-driven market will eventually cool down.
What I am more concerned about is that in the past few months, individual stocks have generally risen, and some poor performance stocks and junk stocks have high stock prices. When newspapers and quarterly reports are intensively disclosed, it is difficult for capital promotion to face up to the poor reality. When the eyes of the market are focused on the pull-up of large-cap stocks, most theme stocks and junk stocks will be exposed to risks because no one will follow suit, and falling may be the only choice. It can be predicted that if the market forms this typical "919" phenomenon, the risk of individual stocks will be far greater than that of the index, and many stocks may take advantage of the steady and rapid decline of the index to leave a chicken feather to retail investors, which requires vigilance. Therefore, the author thinks that we should pay attention to defense in the near future, and controlling risks is the main investment strategy.