Related to gold
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1, the reason for the central bank's gold trading agreement
We know that the central bank's sale of gold in the market is one of the sources of gold supply. There is an important agreement about the central bank selling gold-Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA), also known as washington accord.
CentralBankGoldAgreement (CBGA) is an agreement signed by1September 27th, 999, 1 1 European central banks and the European Central Bank. At that time, because the price of gold was at a historical low, and European central banks sold their gold stocks in order to solve the fiscal deficit, in order to avoid uncontrolled selling and completely crush the price of gold, this agreement stipulated that signatory countries would only be allowed to sell 400 tons of gold every year in the next five years. Although central banks have a large amount of gold in reserve, except for CBGA signatories, other central banks sell very little gold every year. CBGA's gold sales are transparent and planned, and it has become a stable source of supply for the gold market. Five years later, on September 27th, 2004, the second phase of the central bank's gold sales agreement (CBGA2) was renewed, and two European countries joined the agreement.
The period from 1980 to 1990 was a period when the dollar flourished again. The inflation rate in the United States is low and the interest rate is as high as 6%. In contrast, holding gold has little income and requires a lot of storage fees. Therefore, investors are willing to hold dollars, and so are European central banks. In the11990s, the European Central Bank made it clear that it would reduce its gold reserves to about 15%. European central banks have reduced their holdings of gold, which has led to a continuous decline in gold prices.
1999, influenced by the listing of the euro and the continuous decline in the price of gold, the British Treasury threw a bombshell and decided to increase the proportion of money in the national reserve structure. It plans to hold five auctions on behalf of the British government from 1999 to 2000 to sell 125 tons of gold, which is equivalent to 3% of the whole reserve. The selling of gold in Britain directly caused the price of gold to fall to the lowest point of 25 1.9 USD/oz on August 26th, 1999.
The British move really made the global market start to worry. The international community must establish new rules to prevent similar situations from happening again, so the Washington Gold Agreement was born. According to the agreement, 15 central banks, including the European Central Bank, will sell 400 tons of gold every year in the next five years, and the total amount of gold sold in the next five years will not exceed 2,000 tons. At the same time, after the expiration of the Washington Gold Agreement in 2004, the European Central Bank and 14 central banks re-signed the agreement on the sale of gold by central banks to ensure that the sale of gold by central banks in the next few years will be relatively stable and will not increase significantly.
At the same time, people can't help wondering what the Bank of England is doing. Investment? I don't think so. If you invest, you should sell it at 1980 at the price of $850 per ounce, and then buy the 30-year US Treasury bonds with the yield of 13% at that time, and you will be rich. As a result, the Bank of England insisted on selling gold at 1999 at the lowest historical price of nearly $280, and then invested in US Treasury bonds with a return of less than 5% at that time. No wonder Mundell shouted and couldn't understand.
Is the Bank of England ignorant of business? Of course not. Since the establishment of 1694, the Bank of England has dominated the international financial market for nearly 300 years. It can be called the originator of modern financial industry. What kind of storm has never been seen before, and the Federal Reserve is only a pupil in front of it. It is impossible to say that it doesn't understand the truth of buying low and selling high.
There is only one reason why the Bank of England violates the basic commercial laws, and that is fear! What it fears is not that the price of gold will continue to fall, which will lead to the depreciation of gold reserves. On the contrary, I am afraid that gold will continue to rise! Because the gold recorded in the Bank of England account is long gone, the gold marked as gold receivable may never be found back.
Ferdinand Lips, a Swiss banker, once said an intriguing sentence. If the British people knew how their central bank frantically and rashly disposed of the real wealth accumulated by the people for hundreds of years-gold, someone would roll off the guillotine. In fact, to be more precise, if the people of the world finally know how central bank governors manipulate the price of gold, then the biggest financial crime in human history will be revealed to the world.
Where is the gold of the Bank of England? It turned out that it had been "leased" to the "gold bar banker".
The story goes like this: In the early 1990s, after the London-Wall Street Axis successfully defeated the Japanese economy and curbed the process of European monetary unification, although it flourished for a while, it never dared to regard gold as the real enemy. You know, the euro and the yen are only minor ailments for the London-Wall Street axis, and gold is the biggest concern. If gold is turned over, all legal tender systems will yield. Although gold is no longer the world currency, it has always been the biggest obstacle that restricts international bankers from plundering the wealth of the people of the world through inflation. Although it is quietly "under house arrest" outside the monetary system, its historical position and the symbol of real wealth are always attractive. At the slightest sign of trouble in the world, people can't help flocking to gold and accepting its solid shelter. In order to completely depose this "king of money", even international bankers who dominate the world dare not expect it, so they can only find ways to "house arrest" gold forever.
To "house arrest" gold, we must let the world "see" how incompetent and weak this "money king" is. It can neither protect people's savings, nor provide stable indicators, nor even attract speculators' interest.
So we must strictly control the price of gold.
International bankers have learned the lesson of the fiasco of 1968 "Gold Mutual Fund" and learned from it. They will never make this stupid mistake of confronting huge market demand with physical gold again. After 1980 temporarily suppressed the price of gold with an extreme interest rate of 20% and restored the confidence of the dollar, they began to use financial derivatives as new weapons in large quantities.
1In March 1999, the Kosovo war broke out and the situation changed subtly. NATO's air strikes failed, and the price of gold began to accumulate explosiveness with the support of strong purchasing power. If the price of gold continues to rise once it gets out of control, the "gold ingot banker" must buy back the gold from the market at a high price and return it to the governor of the central bank. If there is not so much cash in the market, or the gold producers who use the "underground future" gold production as collateral go bankrupt, or there is not enough gold underground at all, not only international bankers will suffer huge losses, but also the gold reserve accounts of central banks in various countries will suffer huge losses. If things get out and people know the truth, I'm afraid someone will really be guillotined. In desperation, the Bank of England finally rushed to the front on May 7th 1999. If investors can be scared off, the price of gold will continue to fall, and naturally everyone will be happy. Even if we miss, the bad debts will be sold, and there will be no witnesses. As the saying goes, "Gold bad debts are sold off." This is why when the central bank governor sells gold, people never know who is the buyer.
Although the Kosovo war ended in June 1999 and 10, the central bank governors of all countries who were shocked in a cold sweat felt that they had gone too far. In addition, investors in the international gold market have begun to claim to sue central banks for manipulating gold prices, and politicians in various countries have begun to pay attention to gold prices. It looks as if they are going to do something big.
In this case,1September 1999, European central bank governors reached a "washington accord" to limit the total amount of gold sold or leased by countries in the next five years. The news came that the "rental" interest rate of gold jumped from 1% to 9% in a few hours. The financial derivatives of producers and speculators who shorted gold suffered heavy losses.
Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-monopoly Action Committee, called this special interest group a "gold cartel". Its core members include: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of England, Deutsche Bank, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), US Treasury and Federal Reserve.
When the market demand keeps pushing up the price of gold, the central bank will rush to the front line and publicly sell a lot of gold until it scares away investors.
Greenspan declared at the hearing of the Banking Committee of the House of Representatives in July that 1998: "Gold is another commodity with a large number of financial derivatives traded over the counter. Investors have no control over the supply of gold. If the price of gold rises, central banks are prepared to' rent' gold reserves to increase supply. " In other words, Greenspan publicly admitted that the price of gold was completely under the control of the central bank governor if necessary.
1999 is an important strategic turning point in the golden battlefield, and its significance is equivalent to the "Stalingrad" defense war in World War II. Since then, attempts to suppress the price of gold have never been able to gain the strategic initiative in the gold battlefield. The legal tender system headed by the US dollar will continue to retreat in the face of the powerful attack of gold until it finally collapses.
The bear market of gold for nearly 20 years has finally come to an end, which indicates the arrival of a big bull market in the commodity market.
2. The significance of washington accord.
The washington accord mainly stipulates the code of conduct for signatory countries to sell their gold reserves in the next five years. These include: commitment not to add new gold sales plans; When the sale plan is implemented, it should be carried out according to certain procedures to increase transparency, and the total amount should not exceed 2000 tons within five years; Gold is no longer used in gold leasing, futures and options.
The deposits of washington accord signatories and institutions account for more than 50% of the global official deposits, reaching 6,543,800 tons. In addition, the United States, which has the most deposits, never lends or sells its own gold reserves. In this way, more than 80% of the official reserves are transparent, thus effectively reducing the gold flow in the market. Therefore, after the announcement of the agreement, the market gold price was stabilized and the requirements of investors were met.
On the surface, washington accord aims to stabilize the price of gold. However, the change of central banks from accelerating the reduction of gold reserves to limiting the reduction of gold reserves and reaffirming that "gold is still an important part of global financial reserves" has far-reaching historical significance, which shows that it is not easy for gold to completely withdraw from the monetary field. This is a historical summary of the process of gold re-monetization, which is of great significance to the positioning of gold financial attributes and plays an important guiding role in the unified formation of the positioning of gold financial attributes by mainstream social views. The changes in the international situation at the beginning of 2003 once again showed the necessity of hedging when the gold economy was in turmoil: the situation of "9 1 1" in the United States changed dramatically, the war in Afghanistan just subsided, and the war in Iraq broke out again. The turmoil in the world has dimmed the prospects of the world economy. At this time, the stock depreciated and the currency fluctuated, but the price of gold was swept away. A large amount of funds entered the gold market, and the price of gold immediately climbed to a new high in six years. Gold has once again become the "darling" of the investment market, which also proves the correctness of the conclusion that "gold is still an important part of the global financial assets reserve" drawn by washington accord.
This can also be analyzed from the perspective of gold supply and demand. On the surface, the process of gold non-monetization appeared in 1970s, which was the product of the economic contest between Europe and America. The direct reason was that the United States stopped implementing the official gold exchange. But we need to understand this problem from a deeper level, which is the inevitable result of the development of monetary credit reflected by the gold standard itself, that is, the contradiction between the constancy of gold credit and the flood of credit currency. With the establishment of the19th gold standard in the world and the abolition of the gold standard in the 20th century, people began to reflect on whether the finiteness of gold credit line and the unlimited spamming of credit currency can strike a balance. The growth of gold credit can not meet the needs of economic growth, which makes this contradiction increasingly prominent. In a certain sense, the purpose of gold non-monetization is not to completely expel gold from the monetary field, but to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of gold credit line. It is time to strengthen gold and functions of money. Look what the central bankers have done for us. What we need to do now is to find a new balance between the supply and demand of gold credit line. Break the existing balance and keep the gold bull market; On the contrary, maintaining this balance is not necessarily a good thing for the development of the world economy. Due to the recent development of international affairs, the role of the gold fund as a safe haven is an example.
Whether the central bank sells gold or not, we believe that gold will still play a more active role in the monetary field in the foreseeable future.