Affected by the National Day holiday, the domestic refined oil price adjustment stopped, and the new round of oil price adjustment statistics still stayed at the data of the seventh working day. According to Zhuo Chuang Information's calculation, as of the seventh working day of September 30th, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil was -3.72%, and the oil price dropped by about 145 yuan/ton, which translated into a price increase and a decrease of about 0.1-0.14 yuan/liter.
According to this adjustment range, the owner will save 5.5-7 yuan by filling a box of 50-liter fuel tanks; In terms of fuel consumption, taking a private car that runs 2000 kilometers per month and consumes 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel consumption cost will be reduced by about 17.6 yuan.
At the same time, the reporter of Time Weekly combed the data disclosed by today's oil price network and found that since the domestic refined oil prices fell for the seventh time, except for Chongqing, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Tibet and Yunnan, the prices of No.92 gasoline in other provinces were all below 8.20 yuan/liter, and the prices of No.92 gasoline in Ningxia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang even fell below 8. 10 yuan/liter.
This means that according to the current downward trend of oil price forecast, if the domestic oil price drops by 0. 1 1-0. 14 yuan/liter on June 5438+00, the price of No.92 gasoline in Ningxia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang provinces may fall below 8 yuan/liter.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for 18 rounds, and * * is counted as "1 1 up 7 and down". After the oil price fluctuated, gasoline increased 1770 yuan/ton and diesel increased 1530 yuan/ton.
Due to the National Day holiday, the forecast cycle of refined oil prices has been lengthened, and during this period, new trends have emerged in the global crude oil market, which has promoted the rise of international oil prices.
According to Li Yan, an analyst in the crude oil industry of Longzhong Information, if the international crude oil price rises sharply in the next three working days, the possibility that the downward trend will turn into a stranded situation will not be ruled out.
According to the reporter of Time Weekly, in the international crude oil market, investors are increasingly worried about the continued sluggish global energy demand, which further weakens the market demand prospect of oil.
Statistics show that since the third quarter, international oil prices have fallen by more than 20%.
According to the interim economic report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at the end of September, the energy and inflation crisis is likely to intensify and lead to economic recession in major economies, and the global economic growth will slow down more than previously expected. The report predicts that the global economic growth rate will be only 3% in 2022 and will further slow down to 2.2% in 2023.
Affected by this, in this round of price adjustment cycle, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in the early stage. WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell sharply, which ushered in a rare plunge since September, and WTI crude oil fell below the $80/barrel mark.
However, this downward trend did not last. In order to stabilize the falling oil price, "OPEC+"once again began to cut production on a large scale, and the international oil price also rebounded strongly.
On May 5th, local time 10, "OPEC+"held a joint ministerial meeting in Vienna, and decided to reduce its oil production by 2 million barrels per day from the production level in August from June, 2022 1 10. This reduction is equivalent to 2% of the total global crude oil supply.
Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Energy Minister, said that the actual production reduction was about 6,543.8+0,000 barrels per day, which was a response to the sharp interest rate increase in western countries and the weak global economy.
The news that "OPEC+"is about to cut production sharply has driven the international oil price to rise for three consecutive days.
Statistics show that the futures price of WTI crude oil rose from 79.49 USD/barrel to 87.76 USD/barrel,10.4% within three days from October 3 to 5. Brent crude oil futures price rose from $87.96/barrel to $93.37/barrel, with a cumulative increase of 6.2%.
Li Yan analyzed that for a long time in the past, the market's expectation of tight oil supply, pessimism about economic growth prospects and concerns about oil demand continued to play a game, prompting international oil prices to fluctuate within a reasonable range. However, in the long run, global oil prices are expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, considering geopolitics and European winter energy supply problems, as well as the impact of OPEC+increasing production cuts.
According to data released by Eurostat, energy prices in Europe have remained high since the end of February due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Due to the soaring prices of natural gas and electricity, in the past 12 months, the benchmark natural gas price in Europe has soared by 550%, and the electricity price has increased by nearly 10 times a year.
In this regard, Lin, a professor at Xiamen University School of Management and president of China Energy Policy Research Institute, said that with the coming of winter, the fuel shortage crisis in Europe will be further aggravated, and diesel, gasoline and kerosene will be in short supply at the same time, which will further push up energy prices and increase inflationary pressure.
"If the price of natural gas remains high, it will encourage more people to switch to oil. However, in the case of OPEC+increasing production cuts, reducing energy supply and increasing demand, crude oil prices may rise next. "
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