10, the overall market news was relatively calm, and the trading sentiment in the rebar futures market weakened. Since the rebar 130 1 contract was changed to rebar 1305 contract, both the trading volume and the trading volume decreased, and the rebar futures trend entered a slow rebound market, but the short-term fluctuations became more intense and frequent. Rebar futures market outlook is also difficult to change the current operating rules, and will continue to be in a slow rebound channel.
The growth rate of money supply accelerated.
After QE3 was launched in the United States and trillions of yen of economic stimulus policies were launched in Japan, new stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts were still frustrated in the long-awaited market. However, in order to cope with the shortage of funds, the central bank continues to prefer to use open market reverse repurchase to release liquidity. 10 On June 30th, the central bank released a large amount of reverse repurchase again. Seven-day reverse repurchase operations of 290 billion yuan and 654.38+005 billion yuan and 654.38+04-day reverse repurchase operations were conducted by interest rate bidding, with a total scale of 395 billion yuan. The liquidity released to the market is equivalent to the RRR cut of 0.5%, which is the biggest one-day reverse repurchase operation of the central bank at present.
Growth rate of domestic money supply
In September, the growth rates of M 1 and M2 began to pick up. According to central bank data, at the end of September, the balance of narrow money (M 1) was 28.68 trillion, up 7.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. In the same period, the balance of broad money (M2) was 94.37 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65,438+04.8% and an increase of 65,438+0.4 percentage points over the same period of last year. The supply of M65,438+0 and M2 increased for the second consecutive month.
The rebound in steel prices leads to high output. With the rebound of steel prices in September, the profit margin of steel mills has expanded, and the output of steel mills, especially small and medium-sized steel mills, has recovered rapidly, resulting in high steel output and short-term production reduction. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national rebar output in September was 1.582 million tons, up 17.23% year-on-year and also increased from the previous month. Rebar price rebound led to the rapid recovery of output of small and medium-sized steel mills.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the average daily output of crude steel in September was1.936,5438+0.700 tons, up 2% from August. In September, the output of steel bars and wire rods in China was15.823 million tons and1782 million tons, respectively, up by 17.2% and 8% year-on-year. The average daily output of steel bars and wire rods was 527,400 tons and 392,700 tons respectively, which was 8.7 1% and 5.56% higher than that in August, and the average daily output of steel bars reached a record high.
According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first eight months, the steel industry realized a profit of 82 billion yuan, down 53.4% year-on-year. Among them, the profit of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 56.9 billion yuan, down by 4.9%; The profit of iron and steel smelting and its processing industry was19.3 billion yuan, down by 8 1. 1%. According to the data of the same caliber from June 5438 to July released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the iron and steel industry achieved a profit of 2.7 billion yuan in August, including 7.7 billion yuan in ferrous metal mining and dressing industry and-5 billion yuan in iron and steel smelting and processing industry. It can be seen that in July and August, the losses of domestic steel industry were further increased, and the operating situation of steel enterprises was in trouble.
Infrastructure investment continued to pick up.
Completion of investment in new fixed assets
1-In September, domestic investment in fixed assets increased by11552.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. The growth rate is still significantly lower than the growth rate of 37.4% in the same period last year, but it has increased for three consecutive months. In September, the investment in fixed assets increased by 2,428 billion yuan, significantly higher than that in previous months, with an increase of 55%.
Under the control of real estate policy, the growth rate of new housing investment in China has not improved, and it remains at a low level. From June 5438 to September, the total investment in housing construction in China was 5104.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.4%, which was half of the growth rate of 32% in the same period last year. In the past four months, it has not improved, and it has basically remained at around 16%.
Completed investment in real estate development
Recently, relevant leaders of the State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission have expressed their views on ensuring the completion of this year's railway investment plan. In 20 12, the total scale of the national railway fixed assets investment plan was 630 billion yuan, of which the capital construction investment was 51600 million yuan. In the first three quarters of this year, the national railway system * * * completed fixed assets investment of 34.4/kloc-0.50 billion yuan and infrastructure construction of 292.05 billion yuan. This means that in the fourth quarter of this year, the investment in railway fixed assets was 285.85 billion yuan and the investment in infrastructure construction was 223.95 billion yuan. The acceleration of infrastructure investment, such as railways, has an obvious pulling effect on domestic construction steel demand in the later period. However, it is worth noting that after entering the winter, the northern market will enter another round of seasonal demand contraction period, and steel consumption is bound to be affected.
Market inventory continues to decline, and the rebound trend appears.
On June 5438+ 10, the inventory of rebar market basically continued to decline, except for the holiday factors of the eleventh festival, but the decline rate slowed down. As of1October 26th 10, the national rebar inventory was 4.89 million tons, which was lower than the inventory of 57 10000 tons in the same period last year.
National inventory statistics of rebar
Judging from the total inventory of five domestic varieties of wire rod, rebar, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium plate, the recent domestic comprehensive inventory is 12634500 tons. Overall, excluding the long-term factors of National Day, the national steel inventory has been declining for 13 weeks, but the decline in the latest week has slowed down compared with the previous two weeks. With the cold weather in the whole country, the reduction of the project operating rate will make the construction steel enter the traditional off-season. In the past two months, the capacity release of steel mills has obviously accelerated with the rebound of steel prices, and the domestic steel inventory is likely to gradually turn to the rising stage in the later period.
The steel futures market entered a slow bull market.
Supported by many favorable factors, such as loose money supply in the market, smooth progress in inventory digestion, increase in infrastructure projects, and restricted by negative factors such as rapid release of steel mill output, we conclude that rebar futures are still unable to get rid of the turbulent upward channel formed in 10. The price of rebar futures 1305 will be supported from below around 3580, but at 3800, there will be a phenomenon of overlapping medium and long-term pressure levels, with great resistance. Only when there is significant bullish news at the macro level or the industry level can a breakthrough be formed.