Why does China become a global price depression? What are its advantages and disadvantages? How to keep prices basically stable while actively and steadily rationalizing energy and food prices to ensure the sustainable development of people's livelihood and economy? Recently, the reporter interviewed some producers, economists and relevant departments, and made a perspective on the phenomenon of "price depression".
"Price depression" is becoming increasingly obvious.
Since last year, international food prices and international oil prices have soared like two runaway wild horses, hitting record highs.
Especially since the beginning of this year, the global prices of major grains such as wheat, corn and rice have all risen sharply. Take Thai rice as an example. In March this year, the average FOB price per ton was more than US$ 500, which rose to US$ 1 000 in April, and the increase was still at a high level in May.
While food prices continue to rise, international oil prices are also soaring. Since the beginning of this year, the international oil price has exceeded $0/45 per barrel from the beginning of the year to July 3, with an increase of nearly 50% in half a year, double the same period last year.
"Compared with the soaring international prices, the price increase of China's grain and refined oil products is relatively small, the price difference between domestic and foreign countries is constantly expanding, and the phenomenon of' price depression' is becoming increasingly obvious." Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.
In view of the importance of grain and refined oil to protect people's livelihood and stabilize prices, China implements a purchase and sale system based on market regulation and supplemented by government reserves, and at the same time implements a protective price policy for grain purchase; For refined oil, the government adopts the mechanism of corresponding adjustment with reference to the price changes in the international market.
In the first quarter of this year, the average purchase price of rice, wheat and corn in China was RMB 1582 per ton, up 7.5% year-on-year, far lower than the international increase of about 2 times. The international rice price is four times that of China, and the international wheat and corn prices are higher than that of China 197% and 70%.
Judging from the oil price, from 1 1 last year to 19 in June this year, the international crude oil price rose by more than 50%, while the domestic refined oil price remained unchanged. On June 20th, the state adjusted the price of refined oil, with an average increase of about 20%. Zhang Jianhua, director of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, said that the domestic refined oil price is still lower than the international average price by more than 50%. For example, the price of gasoline per liter in Germany is about US$ 2.35, US$ 65,438 +0. 1, and that in China is less than US$ 65,438 +0.
When talking about the reasons for the soaring international oil and food prices, Jiang Yong, director of the Economic Security Research Center of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, thinks that although the soaring oil and food prices are related to the increase in consumer demand, the market manipulation and speculation of international capital in developed countries are hard to blame.
At present, the United States, Australia and other countries monopolize the global grain trade, and 80% of the global grain trade is concentrated in the hands of four multinational grain merchants. International capital is using and amplifying factors such as the depreciation of the dollar to speculate on oil. Some experts believe that more than 50% of the $260 billion international commodity futures speculative capital is used for oil futures contract trading. Speculative funds of $65.438+0 billion will increase the price of oil futures by 654.38+0.6%.
The crisis caused by the food crisis and the fuel crisis has put some countries' economies in trouble, and some countries even have social unrest.
Compared with the crazy rise of international grain and international oil price, China's grain and refined oil prices have remained relatively stable and are relatively less affected by the drastic changes in international market prices.
Behind the phenomenon of "price depression" is the enormous pressure brought by imported inflation to China, which further increases the difficulty of macro-control.
"Price depression" tests the wisdom of government price supervision
On June 30th, in Madrid, Spain, King Juan Carlos of Spain (first from left) spoke at the 19 World Petroleum Congress. The World Petroleum Congress will be held from June 29th to July 3rd. About 4,000 government officials, business representatives, experts and scholars, including more than 20 energy ministers, will focus on the future of sustainable development of the oil industry, especially the development of oil and gas resources and energy supply and demand, around the theme of "The world is changing-providing energy for sustainable development". Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Haitong photo
For our country, whether it is food price or oil price, it is not just an economic issue. The adjustment and change of price need to consider the price level and social affordability at that time.
Zhuang Jian, a senior economist in the Asian Development Bank's representative office in China, believes that "low prices" have made policy makers face a dilemma: on the one hand, if the prices of grain and refined oil are not gradually straightened out, it will not be conducive to promoting production and ensuring supply; On the other hand, under the current inflationary pressure, rashly liberalizing prices will lead to the skyrocketing prices and production costs of most enterprises, which is not conducive to people's livelihood and economic stability.
Since the beginning of this year, the inflationary pressure in China has been increasing. Last year, the overall consumer price level rose by 4.8%, and it was as high as 8. 1% in the first five months of this year. International oil prices are rising, international food prices are hovering at a high level, and the pressure of imported inflation is increasing.
International crude oil prices have risen sharply, and China oil refining enterprises have suffered heavy losses. In the first five months of this year, the oil processing and coking industry turned from a profit of 35.2 billion yuan in the same period last year to a net loss of 44.3 billion yuan. Take a local refinery in Shandong as an example. Before the oil price was raised on June 20, the loss per ton of oil was 3,000 yuan, and the operating rate was only 40%.
Local refineries were under-operated due to serious losses, but the growth rate of domestic demand for refined oil products was faster than the growth rate of supply, which once led to the shortage of domestic refined oil products: the supply of refined oil products at gas stations in Beijing and Guangdong was tight and it was difficult to refuel frequently.
Due to the disparity in oil prices at home and abroad, hoarding and reselling oil, unauthorized price increases, and smuggling exports also occur from time to time. Customs in Dalian, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have found cases in which criminals smuggled refined oil and grain out of the country. In the first five months of this year, the Customs also detected 42 cases of smuggling fuel from the Mainland into Hong Kong.
"The adjustment of refined oil and electricity prices has formed a new price increase factor. The price increase of upstream products continues to rise, international commodity prices are still rising at a high level, and inflation expectations are still relatively strong. " Xie Hongguang, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
Shi is the head of a luggage export enterprise in Pinghu, Zhejiang, and the recent rise in oil prices has caused him a headache. Raw materials such as plastics and textiles needed for luggage production are all from petroleum, and the rising oil price has increased the production cost of enterprises by nearly 10% this year.
The rise in oil prices has also pushed up the prices of agricultural materials such as fertilizers, thus increasing the cost of grain planting. Chen Demin, a large grain grower in zouping county, Shandong Province, told reporters that urea rose from 100 yuan a bag at the beginning of the year to 130 yuan; A bag of diammonium phosphate rose from 130 yuan to 280 yuan.
If the price of refined oil is not adjusted, not only will the market supply not be guaranteed for a long time, but it will fuel the consumption of resources; If the adjustment is too large, it may worry about affecting the healthy development of the economy. "How to properly handle the' price depression' and test the wisdom of government price regulation." Cai, a researcher at Peking University National Accounting Research Center, said.
Seek the balance between price rationalization and shock mitigation.
Nearly 50% dependence on imports makes it impossible for China's refined oil prices to deviate from the international market for a long time; The self-sufficiency rate of over 95% makes it possible for China's grain prices to remain basically stable on the basis of domestic balance.
"The rationalization must be gradually straightened out, but everything can't be dominated by the international market, otherwise the society can't afford it." Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Macroeconomics Department of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the price of refined oil should be gradually in line with the international market, which can not only ensure supply, but also promote energy conservation and emission reduction. However, the grain price in the international market is determined by developed countries, whose per capita GDP is more than ten times that of China, so the grain price in China cannot be blindly followed.
Grain price is the basis of all prices-grain and other food commodities account for about one-third of the consumer price index, and the change of grain price has a great influence on the whole society, especially the low-income groups. To maintain the basic stability of prices, we must maintain the basic stability of grain prices, and at the same time, we must protect the interests of farmers by vigorously increasing state financial subsidies.
Oil prices and food prices have become the most prominent concerns of the current price trend. In order to protect people's livelihood and promote stable economic development, China has listed "resolutely curbing the excessive price increase and maintaining the basic stability of the market and prices" as one of the important goals of the current government work.
In recent years, the state has formulated policies and measures to support the production of grain, pigs, cows and oilseeds. Summer grain has been harvested for five consecutive years, the domestic grain inventory level is twice the world average, and the relationship between grain supply and demand is basically balanced. The state strictly controls the export of grain and its products and has intensified its efforts to crack down on grain smuggling.
On July 2nd, the executive meeting of the State Council discussed and approved in principle the Outline of the National Medium-and Long-Term Plan for Food Security, proposing that China's food supply must basically rely on domestic guarantee; The state's fiscal expenditure focuses on rural areas, gradually rationalizing grain prices and substantially increasing grain subsidies to farmers year by year.
Zhuang Jian believes that China gradually rationalizes the prices of food and energy, and timely subsidizes the urban and rural poor groups and industries affected by price adjustment, which not only takes into account the interests of production and consumers, but also contributes to the basic stability of prices and economic development.
Experts believe that as long as we adhere to the established macro-control policies and actively implement various policies and measures to curb excessive price increases, China can completely achieve the goal of keeping prices basically stable and avoiding economic ups and downs.