Since 1992, China introduced the "export tax rebate" policy, the "going out" of China products has made China a "world manufacturing center". At present, China's export targets are mainly the United States and Europe. From the whole international market, China's products are mainly sold to three regions, namely, the domestic market, the American market and the European market. America is a country that likes to take advantage. The main selling country of "cheap and good quality" products provided by China is the United States, which meets the psychological needs of Americans. The difference between the United States and Europe is that Europeans pay more attention to the so-called "nobility" and "dignity", so their doubts and distrust of the quality of China products make China manufacturers who have always paid little attention to product quality more willing to do business with Americans. For example, China's textile industry, toy manufacturing industry, leisure products, clothing industry and so on. Due to the limitation of European RICHE and other product standards in recent years, a large number of products have turned to the American market.

In the past 30 years, although China's GDP has maintained a sustained growth, China's domestic demand is actually very limited. In the share of GDP, 75% growth comes from urban construction, and less than 35% comes from domestic market demand. Then, with the economic recession in the United States, the domestic demand market can't take over, and the trust in China products in the European market can't be changed in a short time. A large number of domestic products can only have one result: a serious backlog!

After the reform and opening-up, there will be an oversupply in China for the first time! Such a large-scale commodity backlog and oversupply will cause an unprecedented exchange of fire in China's manufacturing industry. This exchange of fire was first provoked by foreign trade enterprises, who would dump a large number of products originally used for export to China at a lower price, and domestic enterprises would fight back to keep their inherent share; Then there are mergers and acquisitions, industrial chain restructuring, replacement and market depression.

In this big firefight, the biggest victims should be foreign trade export enterprises and some small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient scale and ability.

Forecast 6: The number of unemployed people has risen sharply, and there has been a wave of migrant workers returning home.

Even under the above premise, the probability of economic crisis in China is still very small, but the number of enterprises closed down or stopped production in China is very considerable. In 2008, nearly 65,438+10,000 enterprises closed down, which will become a hotbed for the sudden increase of unemployment. The subsequent shrinkage of the real estate industry, the reduction of foreign trade export enterprises, the suspension of production of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises and other factors will force the working class in China to leave, dismiss, lose their jobs and return home.

In fact, as early as August this year, foreign-funded enterprises in Guangdong were already cleaning up the "idle" personnel in the enterprise. In the limited information I know, the number of some Taiwan-funded and Hong Kong-funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta has been reduced to at most 50% of the original total number of enterprises.

Some of these people who leave or return voluntarily or passively will jump ship to other enterprises to continue their work, while others will use their hard-earned money for many years to start a business or do small business. But most of them will return to their hometown in response to the promotion of rural land transfer policy-but they will not plant land, and they will deal with the land they have "70-year use right" in their own way. For example, planting high value-added cash crops, such as operating traditional aquaculture such as raising pigs and chickens, contracting mountain ponds for non-agriculture, and engaging in small-scale "self-sufficient" "new rural industries" such as agricultural product processing.

These actions will drive the surrounding farmers to follow suit, and agricultural industrialization is likely to rise gradually in these hands. Those "small-scale" rural industrial workshops will gradually expand like Wenzhou people at first, and then there will be capital transfer to the countryside, the rise of farm economy, the formation of agricultural products processing scale and the maturity of agricultural products industrial chain.

However, the "labor shortage" of urban enterprises will continue to appear.

Prediction 7: The urban poor will increase.

Kenichi Ohmae regards Japanese society as an "M" type society, that is, the proportion of high-income and low-income people is increasing, and the phenomenon of polarization is becoming more and more serious. The performance of this phenomenon in China in recent years can be clearly reflected in the Gini coefficient. At present, China's Gini coefficient is close to 0.5, ranking the highest in history, exceeding the international warning line of 0. 1 natural value. This data reflects that the income gap between high-income earners and low-income earners in China has exceeded the international early warning standards!

At present, the main concentration of low-income people in China is not the farmers we imagined (some remote mountainous areas and northwest rural areas belong to this category), and the urban poor are brewing and forming on a large scale.

The urban poor include laid-off workers, migrant workers, temporary residents of small enterprises, people who buy houses with huge loans, and people who move in from cultivated land occupied by urban construction. Their common characteristics are: no higher education, no skills, no stable job or income, and the income is lower than that of consumers or overweight lenders.

With the reduction, shutdown, closure and downsizing of enterprises, the urban "marginal people" who once lived in cities will become the first urban poor class. Secondly, the residents of "suburban" new cities who have occupied cultivated land will soon become urban poor because of the gradual decrease in land sales income and lack of skilled means of making a living; The third is the "moonlight clan" with huge mortgage, and a considerable number of them will return to the urban poor because they are unable to repay their loans. China's prosperity under years of urban construction is likely to be abandoned by this new group of low-income people. Perhaps, the small and medium-sized cities that were eager for quick success and instant benefit in those years are likely to move toward urban hollowing out. Who will live in the new high-rise building? Prediction 8: automobile industry crisis, new energy popularization. For China people today, the biggest luxury is car consumption. If the economy continues to develop like this, even if it is limited by cost and price factors such as rising raw material prices and energy shortage, car sales in China will not have much impact. However, when economic development is stagnant, confidence is in crisis and survival is facing challenges, people's first expenditure is of course big luxury goods such as cars. The annual output of automobiles in China is 85 million, and the actual market demand is about 60 million, which has exceeded the demand. If cars are unsalable and the cost of raw materials rises, the life of the domestic automobile industry will be very sad. Joint ventures and foreign-funded automobile industries may be able to tide over the difficulties with their background, strength and international market. However, around the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry and the whole industrial chain, domestic cars, private car manufacturers, auto parts suppliers and service providers will all have serious crises. -and this crisis is very difficult to overcome and reverse. In contrast, the new energy industry. Such as solar energy industry, wind energy industry and geothermal energy industry, there will be unprecedented upsurge and blowout. The motivation of this rapid market is stimulated by market psychological factors. Because of the influence of confidence, the principle of "long skirt theory" will be activated, and people will pay more attention to products and services that will not pay the subsequent cost after one investment. For example, solar water heaters are recognized by ordinary consumers because they don't need to pay the subsequent electricity bill for as long as electric water heaters after spending money once. This car is completely different. After the car is bought back, it is only the beginning of consumption. Followed by wind energy, a civilian product that uses wind energy to generate electricity or convert it into power; Then there is geothermal energy. For example, in Europe, new energy products using ground temperature as heating in winter have been developed. Moreover, the product has also developed corresponding civil goods such as geothermal floor and geothermal water heater. Forecast 9: The global prices of major raw materials will fall. Believe it or not, the biggest advantage of the failure of the US bailout is the decline in the prices of major global raw materials. The biggest factor that has troubled China's manufacturing industry in recent years is the rising cost of bulk raw materials, such as iron ore, timber, oil, rubber, and even soybeans and pork. The fundamental reason for the fluctuation of these bulk raw materials is not the influence of supply and demand, but the masterpiece of international moneymakers headed by American investment consortia. They know that the technology made in China is not high, mainly relying on raw material processing and simple modification. China enterprises will eventually take over any kind of materials that are in great demand in China. Just like the stock market, no matter how high the price is, some people dare to buy it. Once the price falls, people who wait and see will smash the market in an instant. Then, in the face of the crisis in the international financial market and the sharp drop in the export volume of China enterprises, on the one hand, investors' confidence will be greatly weakened, on the other hand, China's demand for raw materials will be correspondingly reduced. Those countries with resources and raw materials will bring international prices back to the rational law of market supply and demand to conduct futures market transactions, and the market law of supply and demand determining prices will come into effect again. Forecast 10: China's GDP growth rate will fall back to around 7%. Starting from 1978, China's GDP growth rate will start from 12.3%, and will only increase for three years in the 30 years to 2007: 198 1, 1989, 1990. Of course, there are many unscientific elements and unreasonable factors, but overall, China's economic development is sustained and high-level. China's GDP in 2009 will be restricted and influenced by the above factors, and the result they show is a direct decline in GDP-this decline does not necessarily represent retrogression, on the contrary, it may promote China's economic development in a more rational direction. This rationality is shown in the following aspects: 1. The weight of GDP driven by urban construction is rapidly declining; 2. Excess commodities lead to weak domestic demand market; 3. Adaptation period of domestic market restructuring and shock; 4. The buffer generated by the adjustment of national economic policies and the transfer of development strategic planning; 5. Market cycle of consumer confidence reconstruction, etc.

2. Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, these special economic zones.

The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are the fastest growing areas in China, and they are also the most dynamic and energetic areas. At present, the two regions have initially formed a relatively strong economic foundation and regional competitive advantages, and formed their own economic operation modes and industrial structure characteristics with the characteristics of the times, geography and culture, which play a very important role in enhancing China's economic strength and are the main driving force for China's economic development.

First, historically, the economic development of the two deltas is very good. Until the Opium War, the development of handicrafts and commerce in the Yangtze River Delta was the highest in China. Guangzhou is the largest foreign trade port city in China since the Tang and Song Dynasties, and its business is very prosperous.

Second, from the first five-year plan to 1978, the country has not arranged many major industrial projects because both deltas are located in the coastal defense line. With the limited financial support of local governments, the two deltas have built a number of local textile industry projects, which is in line with the comparative advantages of China's economic development. On the one hand, there are no capital-intensive enterprises that are difficult to return. On the other hand, in light industry,

Thirdly, the impact of the reform and opening-up policy on the two deltas is enormous, which is extremely favorable compared with other areas in China. For example, Shenzhen and Zhuhai in the Pearl River Delta are special economic zones; Shanghai, Ningbo and Nantong in the Yangtze River Delta are coastal open port cities.

Fourth, in addition to good geographical advantages (low transportation costs), human resources are also very rich. For example, there are more than 1000 scientific research institutions and more than 100 institutions of higher learning in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a large number of scientific and technological talents and skilled workers; Although the Pearl River Delta itself does not have these favorable human resources conditions, it attracts professionals from all over the country, and a large number of scientific and technological personnel and outstanding university graduates flow from the central and western regions to the southeast coastal areas every year. According to the data of the fifth census, the floating population in the Pearl River Delta region is 210.52 million, which is one of the regions that attract the most foreign labor in China. In addition, the proportion of professional and technical personnel in the Pearl River Delta in 2003 was as high as 6.86%; In the same period, the professional and technical personnel in the Yangtze River Delta accounted for 4. 16%.

Fifth, in terms of institutional innovation, both deltas have made major breakthroughs, such as the "Wenzhou model" of Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta-private enterprises, and the "Sunan model" of Jiangsu-township enterprises; "South China Model" in Pearl River Delta —— Foreign-funded enterprises and "Three Subsidies" export-oriented enterprises.

3 Industrial distribution

1, electronic information industry:

The Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Bay and the western region, which are dominated by Sichuan and Shaanxi, are the most developed areas of electronic information industry in China, and are also the main gathering places of electronic information industry clusters.

2, media, film and television audio and video:

Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are the frontier cities of China's economic and cultural development.

3. Textile, clothing and fur manufacturing:

China's textile, clothing and fur manufacturing industrial clusters are mostly distributed in the eastern coastal areas, mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong and Shandong provinces, while others are scattered in the central and northeastern regions.

Leather feather plush products industry belongs to industrial resources and labor-intensive industries. Its clusters are mainly distributed in the southeast coast, Hebei and Henan in the middle, and Chongqing and Ningxia in the west.

4. Non-metallic mineral products industry:

The eastern coastal areas, especially Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong, have the highest concentration of industrial clusters of nonmetallic mineral products. The central region is concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Hunan, Hubei and Sichuan. From the perspective of urban distribution, it is also concentrated in the vicinity of cities with large material consumption demand. Because of the high dependence on resources, building materials, ceramics and glass industry clusters tend to shift from the east to the central and western regions.

5, machinery manufacturing:

China's machinery manufacturing industry is widely distributed, mainly in Northeast China, Shanxi, Hunan, Hubei and other areas with strong heavy industry foundation. Due to the weak foundation of heavy industry in coastal cities and fierce competition, the labor cost is no longer dominant, so China's machinery manufacturing industry cluster is shifting to the central and northeast regions.

6. Home appliance industry:

Mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Jiaodong Peninsula, especially in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shandong provinces.

7. Transportation equipment manufacturing industry

China automobile industry clusters are distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Northeast China, Beijing, Tianjin and Central China. The Yangtze River Delta is led by Shanghai.

8. Metal products industry

China's metal products industrial clusters are concentrated in coastal Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong, and also scattered in Hebei and Hunan.

9. Wood processing and furniture manufacturing

China bamboo and wood processing industrial clusters are concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces, while others are scattered in central Hebei and Hubei. Furniture manufacturing industrial clusters are concentrated in Guangdong and Fujian, while others are scattered in central Hebei, Liaoning and Zhejiang.

10, software and computer services

China's software and computer industry clusters are mostly based on cities, mainly distributed in provincial capital cities and some big cities, among which Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Chengdu, Jinan and other places have large-scale clusters and rapid development.

1 1, petrochemical industry

Petroleum processing and chemical products manufacturing are widely distributed in China. Relying on the abundant local oil resources and large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises supported by the state, Northeast China has developed industrial clusters based on heavy chemical industry.

Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces along the eastern coast exploit marine crude oil.

Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang in the west, due to their weak industrial base and scientific and technological capabilities, have formed industrial clusters mainly focusing on single and primary oil and gas processing, with few downstream products.

12, food and beverage manufacturing industry

There are clusters in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Fujian, which are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and the central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Henan and Hubei. As can be seen from the distribution map, the industrial clusters of food industry are mainly concentrated in important agricultural grain producing areas or densely populated large and medium-sized cities.

13, culture, education, sporting goods and handicrafts manufacturing

The manufacturing industrial clusters of cultural, educational and sporting goods in China are mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hubei, where traditional handicrafts are developed in the southeast coast.

14, modern service industry

China's modern financial industry clusters are located in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. China business convention and exhibition cluster Beijing-Tianjin region relies on the advantages of Beijing's political center, Shanghai and Hangzhou rely on the strong industrial base of the Yangtze River Delta region, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen are adjacent to Hong Kong and Macao, with a high degree of economic openness. Relying on the rich resources and cultural origins in the central and western regions, Chengdu has formed four business exhibition clusters in China. At present, China's logistics industry clusters are still concentrated in the eastern coastal cities.

15, metallurgical manufacturing

The Yangtze River Delta region has a complete industrial chain, and the central and southern regions and southwest regions are industrial clusters centered on large state-owned metallurgical enterprises led by the government.

16, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry

Tianjin and Xi 'an are the representatives, which are mainly distributed in the central and western regions, mainly Chinese patent medicines, the northeast region is mainly integrated with traditional Chinese and western medicine, and the eastern coastal areas are mainly marine medicines.

17, paper printing industry

China paper printing industry has formed three industrial clusters, namely Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim, and become the pillar industries of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Fujian. Others are scattered in central Hebei and western Chongqing.

18, industrial products comprehensive market, agricultural and sideline food market, small commodity market

They are mainly distributed in Bohai Bay and Yangtze River Delta, while others are scattered in the capital cities of Northeast China and Central China.

Supplement: China Electronic Commerce Yearbook 2009

Zhejiang: Among more than 3,000 industry websites in China, Zhejiang accounts for 2 1%, followed by Beijing and Guangdong, accounting for 20% and 18% respectively. Zhejiang industry websites mainly gather in Hangzhou, Jinhua and Wenzhou. The industry is distributed in chemical industry, textile leather, packaging and printing, machinery, clothing, medicine and health, environmental protection paper making, home, craft ornaments and other fields. China Chemical Network, China Plastic Online, gold silkworm Network and China Clothing Network have become the leaders of domestic industry websites.

The application of e-commerce in Hangzhou covers key industries such as industry, tourism, commerce, agriculture, foreign trade and economic cooperation.

Henan Province: China Grain Network has become the largest portal of the national grain industry. The grain turnover of Jilin, Ningxia, Gansu, Shanxi, Ningxia, Tianjin and Fuzhou provinces and cities reached165438+300 million yuan.

Guangzhou: It is one of the large-scale steel production distribution centers in China, with an annual consumption of more than 40 million tons, and online steel trading accounts for 40% of the total steel trading in the whole year. In addition, online transactions in manufacturing, wholesale and retail, information transmission, computer services and software industries have developed rapidly, and Alibaba has also settled in Guangzhou.

Dongguan's manufacturing industry has the characteristics of various types and complete facilities, and many products occupy a considerable market share in the world. Most light industrial products, such as clothing, shoes, toys, etc. , can be found in the "industry" of Dongguan Enterprise Group, and "Made in Dongguan" has become synonymous with China IT manufacturing biological chain. In particular, the computer information industry in Dongguan is the pillar industry of the city's economy. In addition, it is also known as the city of southern clothing, the capital of oriental furniture and the famous hometown of wool in China.

Shaanxi Province: Agricultural products have maintained a growth rate of more than 30% for five consecutive years, of which Shaanxi's export volume of concentrated apple juice exceeds one-third of the world, accounting for more than 50% of the country.

Changchun: A breakthrough has been made in the construction of e-commerce platform for automobile industry.

Anhui: Many leading enterprises in the industry began to apply e-commerce, such as Ningguo Zhong Ding Group and Fengxing Group.

Xiamen: a leading port city with export-oriented economy and relatively developed trade and logistics industry.

Key areas of toy industry in China: Guangdong, Jiangsu, Qingdao, Yiwu, Yunhe.

Key enterprise: Mattel Toy Company, USA

Denmark International Lego Group

Nintendo Game Company of Japan

Shantou dishijia toy co., ltd

Guangdong Audi toy industry co., ltd

Jiangsu good baby group company

The garment textile industry in the Pearl River Delta is mainly concentrated in Nanhai, Xiqiao and Humen.