Stochastics analysis (KDJ) is a short-term analysis tool, which is mainly used to reflect the strength of buying and selling power and the phenomenon of overbought and oversold in the market. It can send accurate buying and selling signals before the stock price rises or falls. This index was initiated by Dr. george ryan. According to the statistical principle, based on the highest price, lowest price and final closing price of a certain period, the immature random value RSV of the previous calculation period is calculated. Then the smooth moving average method is used to determine the K value, D value and J value, and the corresponding curves are drawn to judge the market. As shown in figure 3- 1.
Figure 3- 1 KDJ index schematic diagram
Parameter setting and typical characteristics of KDJ index
I. Calculation of KDJ Index
The default parameters of KDJ index in stock trading software are usually No.9, No.3 and No.3, that is, the highest price, lowest price and closing price within 9 days of RSV statistics. K line is the 3-day moving average of RSV value, and D line is the 3-day moving average of K line. J value refers to the deviation between D value and K value, which usually appears as an auxiliary index.
Calculation formula:
RSV on the 9th = (closing price on the 9th-lowest price on the 9th) (highest price on the 9th-lowest price on the 9th) 100 (note: the calculated value is the RSV value today).
K value of the day = 65438 2/3 K value of the previous day+0/3 RSV value of the current day.
Today's D value = the previous day's 2/3 D value 65438+ today's 0/3 K value.
Note: If there is no K value and D value of the previous day, you can use the number 50 instead.
J=3, k value -2, d value
Second, the characteristics of KDJ indicators
The 1.KDJ index consists of three curves: k, d and j, among which the j curve fluctuates fastest, followed by the k curve, and the d curve is the smoothest and safest.
2. The values of k and d are between 0 and 100, and 50 is the long-short dividing line of KDJ index. When the KDJ indicator is above the 50-axis, it means that the market is in a bull market; When the KDJ indicator is below the 50-axis, it means that the market is short.
3.KDJ indicator is also a very important overbought and oversold indicator. When the k value is 10 or the d value is 20, it is oversold; When the k value is 90 or the d value is 80, it is overbought.
4. When the value of j is 100, the curve J will peak, indicating that the curve K is much higher than the curve D, and the probability that the stock price will peak in a short time will increase; When the value of j is 0, the curve J will bottom out, indicating that the curve K is much lower than the curve D, and the probability of the stock price bottoming out in a short time will increase.
5. Because the value of KD is always in the range of 0 ~ 100, passivation may occur. When the number of KD has peaked and can't exceed 100 or bottomed out and can't be lower than 0, although the market is still changing dramatically, the KDJ indicator can't give a correct indication.
6. When curve K and curve D wander around 50, whether it is a golden fork or a dead fork has no reference significance.
7.KDJ indicators are also applicable to stock selection operations. By using weekly KDJ and daily KDJ stock selection methods, you can filter out false signals and find high-quality stocks.
Third, the composition and significance of KDJ
KDJ is an indicator of "overbought and oversold". Different from MACD, the biggest feature of such indicators is that they have upper and lower limits.
1. From the price sensitivity point of view, J line is the highest, followed by D line, and K line is the least sensitive. In other words, if the price rises, the J line will rise first, and so on.
2.KDJ will run within 0- 100, but the negative J line will also appear above 100 and below 0.
3. This indicator is also the price first, then the indicator, and the price determines the indicator. Some of its inherent characteristics
4. Among MACD, RSI, KDJ and other indicators with the same attributes, KDJ is the most sensitive swing indicator, and its strength alone is not good. I suggest combining other technologies, and the effect will be better.
Use of KDJ indicators
KDJ index is three curves, which are mainly considered from four aspects in use:
The absolute number of 1 KDJ value 3354 has two water levels: low water level (below 25) and high water level (below 80).
There was a dead fork around the high 80, and the stock price generally fell.
At the low water level, below 25, there is a golden cross, and the stock price generally rises.
The shape of 2.2. KD curve is double top (bottom), head and shoulder top (bottom) and triple top (bottom). When these shapes appear in KDJ, it is consistent with the judgment of shape theory.
3.KD indicator crossing-golden fork (bullish) dead fork (bearish)
4. Deviation from KD index
At present, the stock price falls instead of rising. This is the deviation between the index and the stock price. Because the index deviates, many people don't know how to use it, or use it wrong.
First of all, the KDJ indicator should not be used on the daily line, and it is best to use the weekly line. Secondly, the KDJ index is completed by Sunday resonance. Look at the weekly K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, and you can clearly see this resonance.
KDJ index actual combat technology
The KDJ indicator is overbought and oversold.
1.KDJ indicator overbought.
When the stock price fluctuates in the high-priced area, the KDJ indicator line (especially curve D) enters the overbought area above 80, so investors should pay attention to the risks. When the KDJ indicator line turns to the overbought area, investors should consider selling.
Figure 3-2 Daily K-line diagram of Dalian Electric Porcelain (002606)
Figure 3-
2. On June 15 and 10, the curve D in the KDJ index of Dalian Electric Porcelain entered the overbought area above 80. On the same day, the stock closed down. At this time, investors should be alert to the risk of stagflation and can lighten their positions one step ahead of schedule. The next day, the stock closed a cross line, indicating that the stock price was weak and there was a heavy selling pressure above. At this time, investors should focus on shorting. In the next two days, the KDJ indicator formed a dead fork, and the curve D fell below the 80 position, which further confirmed that the previous sale was correct.
2.KDJ indicator oversold
Figure 3-2 K-line chart of Dongfang Seiko (0026 1 1)
On July 20 15 16, the curve d tilted upward to break through the 20 position and enter the normal range. At the same time, on the K-line chart, the stock has continuously pulled out three daily limit boards, at which time investors can buy in the short term.
Second, the deviation of KDJ index
1.KDJ indicator deviates from the stock price at the bottom.
When the stock price falls again, it hits a new low, but the KD value does not hit a new low when it falls again. This is called bottom deviation. This phenomenon implies that the stock price decline is coming to an end and is a buying signal.
Figure 3-3 K-line chart of Changqing Group (0026 16)
As shown in Figure 3-3, from the end of February 20 14 to June 20 15, the share price of Evergreen Group continued to fall, but the KDJ index became higher than the bottom. This bottom deviation phenomenon indicates that the stock price is about to bottom out and rebound, which is a bullish signal, and radical investors can buy in moderation in the process. 1mid-October 20 15 15 Changqing group's share price began to stabilize and rebound, with two consecutive low gold forks. Steady investors can consider buying.
Number 2.2. The KDJ indicator deviates from the stock price.
When the stock price rises again, it hits a new high, but the KD value does not hit a new high when it rises again. This is called top deviation. This phenomenon implies that the stock price rise is coming to an end, which is a selling signal.
Figure 3-4 K-line chart of Wanrun Technology (002654)
As shown in Figure 3-4, from the end of May to the beginning of June in 20 15, the share price of Wanrun Technology kept rising and hit record highs, but the KDJ index did not hit record highs at the same time, but gradually declined. This phenomenon is the top deviation, indicating that the market is about to turn from rising to falling, usually a sell signal. Investors can reduce their holdings in batches in this process to avoid risks. The appearance of high dead fork twice in a row proves the reliability of the selling signal.
Third, KDJ indicators golden fork and dead fork
1.KDJ indicator low gold fork
When the values of K and D are less than 30, and the curve K crosses the curve D from bottom to top, the KDJ indicator forms a low golden cross, indicating that the popularity will gather in the short term and the stock price may rise, which is a buying signal. In the low position, curve K and curve D may repeat the golden cross many times. The more times a gold fork is formed in a short period of time, the stronger the buying signal is.
Figure 3-5 K-line chart of Mengfali (0026 14)
As shown in Figure 3-5, on the day of 20 14 12 19, the Montpellier, which was in the process of decline consolidation, fell sharply, and the curve D in the KDJ index entered the oversold area below 20. On October 5th, 2065438+2005/kloc-0, 65438+, the curve K in Montpellier KDJ index crossed with the curve D from the top, forming a low golden cross. At this point, investors can buy moderately. After that, the stock entered a rebound market.
2.KDJ indicator high dead fork
When the values of K and D are both greater than 70, and the curve K crosses the curve D from top to bottom, the KDJ indicator will form a high dead fork, indicating that the popularity will be dispersed in the short term and the stock price may fall, which is a selling signal. At the high position, curve K and curve D may repeat the dead fork many times. The more times a dead fork is formed in a short period of time, the stronger the selling signal is.
Figure 3-6 hals (0026 15) daily K-line chart.
As shown in Figure 3-6, on May 26th, 2005+2065438, curve K in hals's KDJ index crossed curve D from top to bottom, forming a dead fork. The damn bifurcation appeared at a high level above 80, and then the stock price stagnated and fell, which was a relatively reliable selling signal.
Using KDJ indicators skillfully and grasping trading points
Actual combat map of KDJ indicator trading point:
1, bottom form: buy signal.
When the KDJ curve is at a low level below 50, if the trend of the KDJ curve shows a bottom reversal pattern such as W bottom or triple bottom bottom, it may indicate that the stock price will turn from weak to strong, and the stock price will rebound upward soon, so it can absorb a small amount of stocks on dips. If the stock price curve also presents the same shape, it is more recognizable, and its increase can be judged by W-bottom or triple bottom's shape theory.
2. Top form: sell signal.
When the KDJ curve is at a high level above 50, if the trend of the KDJ curve forms a top reversal pattern such as M-head or triple-top, it may indicate that the stock price will turn from strong to weak, and the stock price is about to plummet, so the stock should be sold in time. If the curve of stock price also presents the same shape, it can be confirmed that its decline can be judged by the shape theory of M head or triple top.
3. The indicators of K and D after the J-weekly turn deviate from the buying method.
As shown in the figure below, the value of J runs below 0, then the head turns upward, and the values of K and D deviate from the trend of weekly K-line. The first positive line after the deviation is the buy signal, and there will be a rising market in the later period. The rising market after deviation is relatively strong.
You must know the use of KDJ indicators:
The values of 1, k and d are always between 0 and 100. When d is greater than 80, the market is overbought. When d is less than 20, the market is oversold.
2. In the upward trend, the value of k is less than the value of d, and when the K line breaks through the D line, it is a buy signal. In the downtrend, the K value is greater than the D value, and when the K line falls below the D line, it is a selling signal.
3.KD indicator can not only reflect the overbought and oversold degree of the market, but also send out buying and selling signals through cross-breakthrough.
4.KD index is not suitable for stocks with small circulation and inactive trading, but KD index is extremely accurate for large-cap stocks and popular large-cap stocks.
5. When the stochastic indicator deviates from the stock price, it is generally a turning point signal.
6. The rising or falling speed of K value and D value is weakened and tends to be gentle, which is an early warning signal for short-term improvement.
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