Yellow, white, green, purple and sky blue are No.5, No.30, No.20, 10 and 120 respectively.
Deviation: deviation rate. Deviation of stock price from moving average. Calculation formula and parameters of deviation
N-day deviation rate = (closing price of the day -N-day moving average price) /N-day moving average price
Where: the numerator is the absolute distance between the stock price (closing price) and the moving average price, which can be positive or negative. Divided by the denominator is the relative distance. 2. Application of prejudice
1) deviation rate can be divided into positive deviation rate and negative deviation rate. If the price is higher than the average, it is a positive deviation. If the price is lower than the average, it is a negative deviation. When the price crosses the moving average, the deviation rate is zero. The greater the positive deviation rate, the greater the short-term profit, and the higher the possibility of profit taking. The greater the negative deviation rate, the higher the possibility of short covering.
2) The deviation rate between the price and the 10 moving average is greater than +8%, which is an overbought phenomenon and a selling opportunity. When it reaches below -8%, it is oversold and a buying opportunity.
3) The deviation rate between the price and the 30-day moving average is greater than+16%, which is an overbought phenomenon and a selling opportunity. When it reaches below-16%, it is oversold and it is a buying opportunity.
4) When the general trend is rising, there will be many high prices, which can be shipped at the positive and negative starting points of the previous high prices. Similarly, when the general trend falls, it will also increase the negative deviation rate, and you can enter the market to buy when the low price is negative deviation rate in the early stage.
5) The general trend plummets, which makes the negative deviation rate increase, reaching the previous low point, and bears can take profits. If you encounter a negative deviation rate close to 0 and suddenly rebound, you can short.
6) It is difficult to judge the positive and negative deviation in the board, and it should be judged together with other technical indicators.
7) The price has skyrocketed, and the highest record in the past was that it should be sold for profit. On the contrary, when the price plummets and its negative deviation rate is close to the highest record in the past, you can buy it.
8) Due to the influence of long and short battles, the deviation between prices and various moving averages is easy to be high, but it does not happen many times.
9) Whenever the deviation rate between the market and the average reaches the maximum percentage, it will approach zero, even lower or higher than zero, which is normal.
10) The soaring bull market and the plummeting bear market will make the deviation reach an unexpected percentage, but it is rare and the time is short, which can be regarded as a special case.
1 1) If there is a negative deviation from the rising market, you can buy it at the falling price because the risk of entering the market is small.
12) If there is deviation in the downward trend of the general trend, it can be sold at a high price.
MACD (also known as DEA): The moving average converges and diverges. The principle of smooth moving average (MACD) is to use the symptom function of convergence and separation of fast and slow moving averages and double smoothing operation to judge the timing and signal of buying and selling stocks.
The calculation formula of 1 MACD
When applying MACD, the fast moving average (generally 12 days) and the slow moving average (generally 26 days) should be calculated first. These two values are used as the basis to measure the "difference" between the two (fast and slow lines). The so-called differential deviation value (DIF) is the EMA value of 12 minus the EMA value of 26. Therefore, in the continuous upward trend, the average of 12 is above the average of 26. At the same time, the positive deviation (+DIF) will become larger and larger. On the contrary, in the downward trend, the deviation value may become negative (-DIF) and become larger and larger.
As for the extent to which the market began to reverse, the positive and negative difference should be narrowed, which is the real signal of market reversal. The inversion signal of MACD is defined as the 9-day moving average (9-day moving average) of "deviation value".
In the index smma calculation formula of MACD, the weight of the latest day is increased respectively. Taking the commonly used parameters 12 and 26 as examples, the formula is as follows:
Calculation of EMA on 12: EMA12 = EMA12x113+today's closing date X 2/ 13.
Calculation of EMA on 26th: EMA26 = EMA 26 x 25/27 of the previous day+closing X 2/27 today.
Calculation of DIF: DIF = EMA 12-EMA26.
Then the EMA on the 9th day is calculated according to the deviation value, that is, "deviation average", which is expressed by DEA.
DEA = (DEA x 8/10 of the previous day+DIF X 2/ 10 of today)
The calculated DIF and DEA are positive or negative, thus forming a fast and slow line moving up and down on the 0 axis. In order to make it easier to judge, DEA is subtracted from DIF to draw a histogram.
Application of 2.2. MACD
MACD has the following criteria for judging buying and selling transactions:
1)DIF breaks through DEA upward as a buy signal, but it is only suitable for short positions when it crosses below axis 0.
2)DIF below DEA is a sell signal, but it is only suitable for long when it crosses above axis 0.
3)DIF and DEA are above the 0-axis, and the market tends to be bullish. Below the 0 axis are short markets. When the DIF and DEA are above the 0-axis, all new entry strategies are mainly buying. If DIF breaks through DEA upwards, it can buy boldly and break through DEA downwards, which is only suitable for temporary profit-taking and wait and see. When the DIF and DEA are below the 0-axis, all new entry strategies are mainly selling. If DIF falls below DEA, it can be sold boldly. If we break up, the bears should only temporarily fill the gap.
4) The price is in a bullish trend. When DIF gradually moves away from DEA, the deviation between the two lines increases, and bulls should take profits and short in batches.
5) When the price line shows the market trend, DIF and DEA will cross many times, so you can ignore it, but you must observe the deviation degree of the plates. Once it is increased, it can be regarded as a breakthrough in the market.
6) Judging the "deviation signal", whether it is the intersection of "differential deviation value" or "differential deviation value column line", we can find the purpose of the deviation signal. The so-called "deviation" means that a higher-priced head appears on the graph of K-line chart or bar chart, while a lower-priced head appears on the graph of MACD. This departure signal means a more correct down signal. In other words, on the graph of K-line or bar graph, the price is lower than the bottom, but on the graph of MACD, the price is higher than the bottom. This deviation signal means a more correct rising signal.
Using MACD to measure the market can help investors judge whether the current market is a bull market or a bear market. For investors, the most difficult thing is how to determine the mainstream of the current trend, that is, whether the current market is a bull market or a bear market. The short-term strategy of small bull market and the long-term deployment of big bull market are also the same for bear market. If it can be confirmed that the current trend is a bull market, then all market deployment should be based on a multi-head strategy. Therefore, smart technical analysts will take long-term holding and short-term selling in bull market and long-term selling and short-term buying in bear market.
CCI homeopathic indicator, which specifically measures whether the stock price is beyond the normal distribution range. It is a special overbought and oversold index. CCI CCI (commodity channel index) Chinese name: homeopathic index.
This indicator was created by DonaldLambert to measure whether the stock price has exceeded the normal distribution. It is a special overbought and oversold index that fluctuates between positive infinity and negative infinity. But there is no need to take 0 as the central axis, which is also different from the indicators of positive infinity and negative infinity. But every overbought and oversold indicator has "antenna" and "ground wire". Except for the index with 50 as the central axis, the antenna and ground wire are 80 and 20 respectively. The positions of antenna and ground wire of other overbought and oversold indexes are necessarily different according to different markets and different stock characteristics. The antenna and ground with unique CCI index are+100 and-100, respectively. This is not only the original author's original opinion, but also very different from other overbought and oversold antenna ground wires. Readers must have a good understanding of his principles in order to fully use CCI and Bollinger Bander and ROC indicators, which will be introduced in the following chapters.
What is an overbought and oversold indicator? As the name implies, "overbought" means that the buyer's ability has been exceeded, and the number of people buying stocks has exceeded a certain proportion. Then, according to "anti-popular psychology", the stock should be sold in reverse at this time. "Oversold" means that the seller oversold the stock. When the number of people selling stocks exceeds a certain percentage, they should buy stocks instead. This is an anti-market and anti-mass theory, which is often the most valued in the general normal market. However, if the market is extremely strong, the overbought and oversold indicators will suddenly lose their direction, the market will continue to move forward, and the masses seem to lose control. CCI index provides different views on the disorderly behavior of stock prices.
According to the principle of wave theory, the stock price moves forward in five waves. In the final stage of The 5th Wave, the market fluctuation is the fiercest and fiercest, both in the rising wave and the falling wave. The public is irrational and crazy, and the stock price fluctuates to the maximum in a very short time.
Some investors want to buy and sell stocks in the safest range. But for some high-risk, gambling investors, they would rather choose a fast and profitable market in a high-risk environment. This kind of market is often double-eyed, so bet and run! It can make people gamble to their heart's content and give gamblers a sense of relaxation.
If the overbought and oversold index ranges from 0 to 100, it is specially designed for normal market. Then, CCI indicators are specially designed to cope with extreme market conditions. In other words, under normal market conditions, CCI indicators will not work. When CCI scans the abnormal stock price fluctuation, the fighter plane will take off and fight immediately, make a quick decision, and immediately know who is the winner. If you lose the bet, you must speed up your escape at once!
Attention! The antenna of CCI is+100, and the ground is-100. This interval may also change slightly due to changes in individual stocks, which depends on the careful observation of readers. But generally it won't make much difference.
KDJ is a stochastic indicator and a very popular short-term indicator in the world. K, D and J are just the names of performance indicators. Algorithm principle:
Rsv= (lowest in closing -n days)/(highest in n days-lowest in n days) * 100.
K is the M-day moving average price of RSV.
D is the 0-day moving average price of M 65438+K.
J is 3K minus 2D.
Basic usage:
1, oversold below 20, overbought above 80.
Gold forks below 2.20 are buying points, and dead forks above 80 are selling points.
3. The second crossing of the high position is a big drop, and the second crossing of the low position is a big rise.
4. The deviation between stock price and index is an excellent opportunity to operate.
Cross roads 5 and 50.
6. The J-line is of little reference significance, but it can be used as an early warning for the stock price to turn around.
Precautions:
1, don't look at KDJ in a narrow range.
2. After a long-term unilateral market, it is inappropriate to look at KDJ again, and this indicator has been passivated.
3. Short-term random indicators are not suitable for long-term research.
Second, the calculation formula:
Take KDJ with a 9-day period as an example, first calculate the "immature random value" of the last 9 days, that is, RSV value. The calculation formula of RSV is as follows: RSVT = (CT- L9)/(H9-L9) *100, where: CT-closing price of the day L9-. In fact, the sum of RSV value and %R value in the same period is equal to 100, so RSV value is also between 100. After getting RSV value, we can get K value and D value: K value is smma of RSV value on the 3rd day, and D value is J line obtained by subtracting twice D value from three times K value of smma value on the 3rd day. The formula is: kt = RSVT/3+2 * kt-1/3dt = kt/3+2 * dt-65438+. If there is no KD value, you can replace the KD value of the previous day with the RSV value of the current day or 50. After the smoothing operation, the KD values of different initial periods will be consistent, and there will be no difference. The values of k and k will always be between 0 and 100. According to the crossing principle of fast and slow moving averages, K-line breaks through K-line upward for buying signal, and K-line falls below D-line for selling signal, that is, the market is an obvious upward trend, which will drive K-line (fast moving average) and D-line (slow moving average) to rise. If the rally starts to slow down, it will slowly react to the K value and D value, making the K line fall below the D line. At this time, it is a common and simple application principle to adjust the downward trend in the short and medium term.
W & ampr is the William indicator, which is a technical indicator that reflects the phenomenon of overbought and oversold in the market by using the oscillation point, predicts the high and low points in the cycle, and then puts forward effective signals to analyze the short-term market trend and judge the strong and weak boundaries of the stock market. William Index (WMS% or R%) was first created by Larry William in 973 and was originally used in the futures market. WMS% indicates whether the market is overbought or oversold.
The calculation formula and physical meaning of 1.wms%.
Percentage of warehouse management system in n days = (Canada-Canada) /(HN- Canada) * 100%
In which: Cn is the closing price of the day; Hn and Ln are the highest and lowest prices in recent days (including today).
According to the formula, WMS% has one parameter, that is, the selected days N0. WMS% refers to the relative position of the closing price of the day in the whole price range in the past period of time. If the value of WMS%% is relatively large and the price of the day is in a relatively high position, be careful not to fall back; If the value of WMS% is small, it means that the price of the day is relatively low, so beware of rebound; The value of WMS% is in the middle, about 50%, so the price of that day may fluctuate up and down.
WMS% indicator can be understood in this way. A moving ball jumps up and down in a space with a ceiling at the top and a floor at the bottom. When the ball hits the ceiling up, it will turn down, and when it hits the floor of the factory, it will bounce. The external force of the ball moving up and down is zero, so the ball will move up and down regularly and continue. However, due to the constant changes in the strength of both sides, the external force on the ball is not zero. Many forces are strong, and the ball moves upward; When the air force is large, the ball moves down. But the U-turn after hitting the ceiling and floor is always correct, just not as regular as when there is no external force. If you hit it, you won't look back. You may have to hit it several times before you look back. This is because of external forces.
2. Parameter selection and application rules of WMS%.
The ceiling and floor mentioned above are constantly changing with time, which is the problem of parameter selection. In the early days of WMS%, people thought that a market cycle was about four weeks, so taking the first half or the second half of this cycle must contain the highest or lowest point of this cycle. In this way, as long as the parameter selected by WMS% is 2 weeks, at least one of Hn or Ln will become the ceiling or floor in these 2 weeks. This is very helpful for us to use WMS% to open up the market.
For the above reasons, the selection parameter of WMS% should be half of the-period. At present, there is no clear result about the cycle of China stock market. When we apply WMS%, we always try to choose more parameters.
The operation rules of WMS% are also considered from two aspects: one is to take the absolute value from WMS%; The second is from the shape of WMS% curve.
(1) Consider the absolute value of WMS%. The value of WMS% in the formula is between 0% and 100%, and it is divided into upper and lower regions with 50% as the central axis.
1) When WMS% is higher than 80%, it is overbought and the market is about to peak, so we should consider selling.
2) When WMS% is less than 20%, it is oversold, and the market is about to bottom out, so we should consider buying.
Here, 80% and 20% are only empirical figures, not absolute. Some stocks may require more than 80% or less. Different situations produce different buying lines and throwing lines, and we should constantly explore them in actual combat according to specific conditions. It should be noted that in China and Shanghai markets, the buying line is generally lower than 20%, and the selling line is generally higher than 80%.
(2) Consider the curve shape of WMS%. Only the deviation principle and the principle of hitting the top and hitting the bottom are introduced here.
1) After WMS% enters the high position, it is generally necessary to turn back. If the stock price continues to rise at this time, it will lead to deviation, which is a signal of shipment.
2) After 2)WMS% enters the low level, it will generally rebound. If the stock price continues to fall at this time, it will deviate and be a signal to buy.
3)WMS% touches the top (bottom) several times in a row, and some of them form double or multiple (bottom), which is the signal of shipment (buying).
There are still some things that can be introduced from the shape of WMS%, which are left in the following indicators.