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In 20 10, the United States launched the "30 1 survey" on China, which started in 20 17 and coincided with the "seven-year itch".
US President Trump signed a presidential memorandum on March 22nd, according to the results of the "30 1 survey", it will impose tariffs on 60 billion US dollars (about 380 billion yuan) of products from China, and restrict China enterprises from investing in the United States for mergers and acquisitions.
On March 23rd, the Ministry of Commerce said that it planned to impose tariffs on $3 billion products imported from the United States.
Sino-US trade war is "explosive"
US President Trump signed a presidential memorandum on March 22nd, according to the result of "30 1 Investigation", it will impose large-scale tariffs on goods imported from China, and restrict China enterprises from investing and merging in the United States. Before signing the White House contract, Trump told the media that the scale of China goods involved in taxation may reach $60 billion.
In response, the China Embassy in the United States said that China does not want to engage in a trade war, but it is not afraid of a trade war, and it is confident and capable of meeting any challenge. If the United States insists on fighting, we will accompany it to the end and take all necessary measures to resolutely defend our legitimate rights and interests.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on the US investigation decision of 30 1 that China does not want to engage in trade wars, but it has never been afraid of trade wars. Under any circumstances, China will not sit idly by and watch its legitimate rights and interests be harmed, and is fully prepared to resolutely defend its legitimate interests; Have confidence and ability to meet any challenge; It is hoped that the US will pull back from the brink, make a prudent decision and not drag bilateral economic and trade relations into a dangerous situation.
Chen Fuli, director of the Department of Law and Law of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the next step will be to pay close attention to the investigation progress of 30 1, and once the relevant measures of the US are implemented, China will resolutely take action.
In addition, on the morning of March 23rd, the Ministry of Commerce of China released the list of products whose import of steel and aluminum products from the United States was suspended under the 232 measures, and publicly solicited opinions. It is planned to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States, so as to balance the losses caused to China's interests by the United States imposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. Among them, it is proposed to impose tariffs on fruits, pork, wine, seamless steel pipes and more than 3 billion US dollars worth of 100.
The list tentatively includes seven categories of products with tariff number 128. According to the statistics of 20 17, it involves about US$ 3 billion in US exports to China. The first part includes 120 tax, involving 977 million US dollars exported to China, including fresh fruits, dried fruits and nut products, wine, modified ethanol, American ginseng, seamless steel pipes and other products, and it is planned to impose a tariff of 15%. The second part includes eight items, involving exports to China of US$ 654.38+99.2 million, including pork and its products, recycled aluminum and other products. It is proposed to levy a 25% tariff.
(Source: World Wide Web)
Global market fluctuation
Affected by Sino-US trade friction, the global financial market generally fluctuates.
On the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 3.39% to 3 152.76 on Friday, the biggest drop since February 9. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.02% to 10439.99, while the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 5.02% to 1726.02. The turnover of the two cities was 635.3./kloc-0.2 billion yuan, which was significantly enlarged compared with the same period of last day. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 3.5%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 5.23%.
The Hong Kong stock market fell across the board, and the Hang Seng Index closed down 2.45% at 30,309.29 points, down 3.79% for one week. The index of state-owned enterprises fell 2.4 1% to 12 128.27 points, down 4.03% in a week; The red chip index fell 2. 17% to 4418.10/point, with a weekly decline of 1.8%. The whole-day market turnover rose to HK$ 283.445 billion, the highest since April 20 15, just one step away from the historical high of HK$ 29152.9 million, compared with HK$10/93.3 million in the previous trading day.
(Image from the real-time market of Hong Kong stocks in Wande Wharf)
Asia-Pacific stock markets also fell sharply across the board. The Nikkei 225 index fell by 4.5 1%, and fell by 4.88% in one week. South Korea's composite index fell by 3. 18%, falling by 3.10% in a week; The weighted index of Taiwan Province Province fell by 1.66%, and the weekly decline was1.65%; Australia's ASX200 index fell 1.96%, down 2.39% in a week; The NZX50 index of New Zealand fell by 0.99% and rose by 0.30% in the week.
In the futures market, most domestic commodity futures fell on Friday night, and iron ore closed down 1.9%. Coke closed down 1.37%, coking coal and thermal coal closed up 1.09% and 2. 12% respectively. Vegetable oil, soybean oil and palm oil closed down by 0.49%, 0.7% and 1.09% respectively. In addition, rebar and hot rolled coil decreased by 2.6% and 1. 14% respectively. Rubber closed down 5.82% and asphalt closed up 2.87%.
In the foreign exchange market, on Friday, the offshore RMB rose above the 6.32 mark against the US dollar, rising 200 points in the day, setting a new high since March 20th. The onshore RMB against the US dollar 16:30 closed at 6.3240, down 28 basis points from the previous trading day and up 7 basis points this week. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 105 basis points to 6.3272.
In the bond market, risk aversion pushed futures bonds up sharply. 10 and 5-year main contracts rose by 0.64% and 0.29% respectively, both hitting five-month highs. The yield of inter-bank spot bonds dropped sharply. The yield of 10-year CDB active bonds 1702 15 once fell below 16bp, hitting a minimum of 4.67%, hitting a four-month low. The yield of sub-active coupons 180205 went down 15.0 1bp to 4.63%, with the lowest intraday hit of 4.60%; The yield of 10-year active bonds 180004 decreased by 4.75 basis points to 3.70%.
European and American stock markets plunged again on Friday. The Dow closed down more than 400 points or 65,438+0.77% to 23,533.20 points, the lowest since last year1October 22nd, 65,438+065,438+. The Nasdaq closed down 2.43% to 6992.67 points; The S&P 500 index closed down 2. 1% to 2588.26. This week, the Dow Jones index fell by 5.63%, the Nasdaq index fell by 6.54%, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell by 5.95%, all the biggest weekly declines in more than two years.
The three major European stock indexes fell collectively. The FTSE 100 index in Britain closed down 0.44% to 692 1.94, a five-month low of100, down 3.38% in a week. The French CAC40 index closed down 1.39% to 5095.22 points, down 3.55% in a week; Germany's DAX index closed down 1.77% at11point, hitting a two-month low of1point, with a weekly decrease of 4.06%.
In terms of overseas commodities, COMEX gold futures closed up 1.48% to 1.352.9 USD/oz, a five-week closing high and rose 3.09% this week. COMEX silver futures closed up 1.06% to 16.56 USD/oz, up 1.77% this week.
NYMEX crude oil futures closed up 1.44 USD, or 2.24%, to 65.74 USD/barrel, an eight-week high, up 5.34% this week.
Listed companies should deal with the impact of trade war
Last Friday (March 23rd), a number of A-share listed companies responded to the impact on their business in view of the fact that Trump signed a memorandum to impose tariffs on China goods.
Crystal Optoelectronics said that the company's export business to the United States is less and has little impact.
Chang Ying Precision said that although some of its customers are American companies, most of its products are shipped to domestic companies, and the tariff increase has little impact on the company.
Zhong Kai Precision said that the company supplies to world-renowned auto parts manufacturers, and the proportion of direct delivery to the United States is very small. Sino-US trade war has no direct impact on the company's performance.
Sharon A said that the company's business is highly dispersed around the world. When the trade barriers and tariff policies of specific countries or regions change, the company will make timely and appropriate business restructuring accordingly. If there is a "trade war" between China and the United States, it will have an impact on the company's business, but it will not be great.
Yangpu Medical said that the main customers of the company's international trade are concentrated in Europe, South America and Asia, and trade with the United States accounts for a small proportion of its main income.
Xinwei Communication said that it has not caused any impact on the company's business at present, and the cooperation between the company and customers is all normal.
Fangda Carbon said that in 20 17, it exported10.50 billion yuan to the United States, accounting for10.89% of the total revenue in that year, which had little impact on the company's operating performance.
Bayi iron and steel said that the company did not export products to the United States.
Shunfa Hengye said that its business in the United States is real estate investment and does not involve export products.
Hong Sheng Science and Technology said that the sales of the company's products in the United States accounted for about 0.82% of the company's revenue, and the Sino-US trade war had little impact on the company.
Rebecca said that although the company exports a large proportion to the United States, the wig sub-sector is relatively small, which does not constitute a competitive relationship with American companies and will not affect the company's business.
Chenfeng Technology said on the interactive platform that about 20% of the company's products are sold abroad, and the main overseas markets include India, Southeast Asia and the European Union. The company's main export countries or regions have not set up special trade barriers, and this trade dispute has little impact on the company.
Igor said that all the products of the company have independent intellectual property rights, and the US tariff increase on China has no direct impact on the company.
BOE said that the interim report of 20 17 showed that the amount in America accounted for 2.5% of the revenue.
Taisheng Wind Energy said that the United States implemented "double opposition" to China application-grade wind towers as early as 20 12, and the company has not exported products to the United States in batches in recent years. Even if the United States launches a trade war against China, it will not affect the company's exports.
Gloria Ying said that China and the United States, as the two largest economies in the world, the so-called trade war will greatly harm the fundamental interests of the two countries and consumers.
Lianhua Technology said that the company is confident to maintain and further enhance the good cooperative relationship with customers by virtue of its products, technology and comprehensive advantages.
Zhou Ming Technology said that the company's products are exported all over the world and there is no high dependence on exports in the United States. Moreover, LED small spacing display is a very subdivided field, which may not be in the catalogue of tariff increase. At present, no notice of tax collection has been received. The company will pay close attention to this matter and actively seek solutions to the crisis.
Yin Lun said that in 20 17, our company's direct export to the United States was about 280 million yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the total operating income. In addition, the specific product catalogue of tariff increase has not yet been determined, and the specific impact on our company cannot be judged at present.
Helen Zhe said that in the long run, the Sino-US trade war is conducive to promoting Helen Zhe to accelerate the independent research and development and production of insulated boom aerial work vehicle products.
Cross-border communication means that there are two modes of cross-border trade: B2B mode is mainly traditional cross-border trade, and cross-border e-commerce platform is B2C mode. According to the investigation, 40% of our company's operating income in 20 17 came from the American market, among which the income from general trade exported to American overseas warehouses was conservatively estimated to be about 45%, and the remaining 55% was sent by express parcel. Assuming that the tariff increase in the United States affects 30% of the categories exported to the United States, we expect that the company's income range will not exceed 6%. In view of this influence, the company will focus on developing other unaffected products and try to send small parcels from China to reduce the impact of this US tax on the company. The trade war will further squeeze the profit space of traditional B2B, while B2C trade will not be greatly affected. On the contrary, the cost advantage of B2C will be further highlighted. From the perspective of cross-border import business, at present, the company's import and procurement business comes from about one tenth of the US market. Therefore, even if China raises import tariffs on trade with the United States, the company's import business will not be affected for the time being.
Huaying Agriculture said that the company's agricultural and sideline products have not been exported to the United States for the time being, and the company is actively studying the impact of relevant policies on the company.
Shennan Circuit said that the company will pay close attention to the progress of the situation and take necessary measures in time.
Jinhe Bio said that our company is the world's largest producer of chlortetracycline, and its products have strong competitive advantages in markets such as the United States, Canada and South America. Sino-US trade war will not have a substantial impact on the company.
Shanghai Steel Union said that the company is still in the trial stage for overseas markets; Sino-US trade war will not have a direct impact on the company's business in the short term.
Easy to say that the company does not treat the market in a specific region differently, and the market in each region focuses on it and develops simultaneously. The trade war will not have a big impact on the company's business.
Fo burning shares said that the company's gas source structure is diversified, and the trade war has little impact on the purchase price.
Crick said that Trump's report and policies on the trade war in China are still unclear and have limited impact on the company's business.
Fuling mustard tuber said that the company's export business accounts for a relatively small proportion and has little impact.
Henghua Technology said that at present, the company's overseas business income accounts for a very small proportion of its main business income, and it is in the initial stage of market expansion.
Dragon Cable Technology said that at present, its products are not sold in the United States.
Forgetting the relationship, listed companies simply began to applaud China for imposing tariffs on American products. For example:
Dongfang Group said on the interactive platform that the largest proportion of China's agricultural products imported from the United States are soybeans and other products. China plans to impose tariffs on American agricultural products, which will help enhance the competitiveness of domestic agricultural industries and have a positive impact on the company's performance.
Which industries will be affected?
For the main areas affected by the trade war, CICC believes that there are:
1. Judging from the signing of the memorandum, the industries that China plans to impose 25% additional tariffs are the first to bear the brunt, especially aerospace, information and communication technology and machinery;
2. Industries with relatively high trade with the United States will also be affected. Judging from the current trade structure between China and the United States, China's exports to the United States are mainly machinery and equipment (mainly household appliances and electronics, accounting for 48% of the total export), miscellaneous products (12%), textiles (10%) and metal products (7%). The products exported by the United States to China are mainly machinery and equipment (30%, mainly capital goods), transportation equipment (20%), chemical products (10%), plastics and rubber products (5%).
The following is a list of American A-share listed companies (20 16 Top 100):
Xiang Zhuang's sword dance is intended to be Pei Gong?
Just when the market judges the possible risks brought by the Sino-US trade dispute, some institutions have analyzed that the purpose of the US trade war may not be to improve the bilateral trade figures, but to have greater motives.
According to industrial research, the trade imbalance between China and the United States is only the excuse and initial goal of the US trade war, and the more important motive is to curb China's overtaking, which is still ignored by most people.
On March 1, the Office of the US Trade Representative submitted a report on Trump's trade policy to Congress, which pointed out that the United States would use "all available tools" to prevent China from "destroying real market competition".
The US Trade Policy Outline 20 18 and Annual Report 20 17 clearly point out: "We must ensure the leading position of the United States in research and technology and protect the American economy from competitors who unfairly acquire our intellectual property rights. In response, the United States (for China) launched a 30 1 investigation to prevent China from acquiring technology and intellectual property rights through unreasonable discriminatory measures. " .
Take history as a mirror: five "30 1 surveys" all point to the same result.
In fact, this is the sixth "30 1 investigation" against China by the United States. Looking back at history, we can find that the final results of the first five times are the same.
According to the research of Zhu and Hua Xia of the Bank of China, from the historical experience, it is unlikely that China and the United States will compromise after a local trade conflict and turn into a full-scale trade war.
According to the analysis of the research report, there were five 30 1 investigations on China in American history. Judging from the historical results, the two sides finally reached a compromise and did not evolve into a full-scale trade war. Clause 30 1 is more of a means for the United States to gain the negotiating advantage.
Xie's research report of China Merchants Securities pointed out that in the 1990s, the United States conducted three "30 1 special investigations" on China, namely 199 1, 1994 and 1996. After China's entry into WTO, on June 20 10, 10, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced that it would investigate a series of new energy policies and measures formulated by the China administration according to Article 30 1 of the US Trade Law at the request of united steelworkers union. This is the first time that China has used the "30 1 clause" to investigate the trade behavior of other economies since its accession to the WTO. Finally, China and the United States negotiated under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, and agreed to amend the contents suspected of prohibited subsidies in the Interim Measures for the Administration of Special Funds for the Industrialization of Wind Power Equipment.
According to Zhu and Hua Xia's research report, at present, about half of the total US trade deficit comes from trade with China, but the current deficit more reflects the different division of labor between China and the United States in the global economic system, and part of the US deficit with China comes from US export restrictions on China's high-tech products. Generally speaking, an all-round trade war is the result of both losses. The report believes that this 30 1 survey is still a means for the United States to gain the negotiating advantage. China and the United States still compromise after local trade conflicts, and it is unlikely that they will evolve into a full-scale trade war.
TF Securities Song's research report analyzes that only when the US import tax rate to China is 10%, 15% and 25% respectively, China may lose less than the US in the trade war. If Trump can use the presidential power to bypass Congress and raise the tariff to 15% within 150 days, then China will raise the tariff to 25%. However, if the United States raises the tax on China to 35% and 45%, no matter what retaliatory measures China takes, China will suffer more losses than the United States.
For example, if the United States imposes a 45% tariff on China, even if China takes comprehensive measures to resist restricting industries, China will still suffer more losses in the trade war than the United States.
However, the report believes that the trade war may not go smoothly, or the trade war may not erupt in a comprehensive and radical form, but in a partial and gradual form.
On the one hand, the United States itself will also suffer a major economic blow. According to the data of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States, even if there is a short trade war, the private sector in the United States will lose 1.3 million jobs, accounting for 1% of the total number of private sector workers. On the other hand, the highest authority of the President of the United States can only impose a tariff of no more than 15% on all imported goods within a period of 150 days. Congress has veto power over tariff proposals above 15%, and the relationship between Congress and business circles cannot be ignored. As the largest trading partner of the United States, China can have a negotiating position with the United States by taking trade countermeasures against agricultural products, machinery and electronics, aircraft and other industries imported from the United States. These trade countermeasures may lead to the opposition of the tariff proposal from the American business community.
If there is a trade war between China and the United States, it is not aimed at pure trade protection. Trump hopes that if tariffs are raised to force the RMB to appreciate or high-end manufacturing industries to return, China's trade countermeasures also hope to have chips in exchange for China's deepening reform. It is precisely because their respective intentions are not in trade itself that the possibility of a full-scale trade war is not high. In the future, local and gradual trade frictions between China and the United States may be more common.
Influence geometry on China?
Considering that this dispute may eventually lead to "more thunder and less rain", the market is generally cautiously optimistic.
Haitong Securities said that there is no need to panic too much, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. The memorandum focuses on intellectual property rights and high-tech fields. Technology stocks that have accumulated a certain increase recently are under great pressure, taking the opportunity to discard the false and retain the true. The value stocks consolidated since February have a good matching degree of valuation and profit.
CICC also believes that there is no need to be too pessimistic about the medium and long term in order to actively respond to possible short-term shocks. According to the analysis of its report, the intensification of Sino-US trade friction affects investors' judgment on China's economic growth from the perspective of net exports to a certain extent, especially at the time when there are great differences on growth in the near future, which may have a certain impact on short-term market sentiment and risk appetite. The specific degree of influence in the medium and long term depends on the breadth and depth of the subsequent trade war. However, considering the resilience of China's domestic demand and sufficient policy buffer space, we don't think it is necessary to be too pessimistic about China's economic growth prospects and capital market performance. If the short-term market is continuously and widely over-adjusted, it will provide investors with better opportunities to enter the market.
In addition, international authoritative rating agencies also believe that the trade war has limited impact on China and the global economy.
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major international rating agencies, expressed the latest view that the US action of imposing tariffs on China's $50-60 billion goods is unlikely to have a significant impact on China or the global economy. China can solve the tariff problem with the United States, but the trade risk will increase.
Fitch said that $60 billion is equivalent to about 2.5% of China's total merchandise exports to the United States, or 0.5% of China's GDP, but the impact of tariffs on China's economy will be much smaller. Due to the lack of substitutes, these goods will eventually flow to the United States, while other goods may be transferred to different markets. U.S. measures to impose tariffs on China's current $50-60 billion goods will not drag down China's GDP growth by more than 0. 1%.
Fitch said that in recent months, sporadic protectionist measures have escalated into "more destructive trade wars". The greater risk now is that the United States will eventually impose full tariffs on China. The United States accounts for nearly one-fifth of China's total exports, equivalent to 3.6% of China's GDP. Therefore, a wide range of tariffs may have a considerable impact on China's economy, and will also cause a chain reaction in other parts of Asia. In addition, the Sino-US trade war will also weaken the confidence of global investors.
Moody's said that the ratings of China enterprises will not be affected by trade disputes. According to a preliminary assessment, the measures announced by the US government so far have limited impact on China's economy, but if a wide range of protectionist measures are introduced, the assessment may change.
Moody's statement said that compared with 10 years ago, China's economic growth is less dependent on exports; The contribution of net exports to GDP growth is also much lower than that before 10-2016, with an average decrease of 0. 1 percentage point, and an average decrease of 3.4 percentage points in 2005-2007.
The industrial tariffs announced at present will not cause substantial harm to China's exports, because these industries have limited exports to the US market, including tariffs on photovoltaic panels, washing machines, steel and aluminum. If the United States significantly expands the scope of tariffs and adopts extensive protectionist measures, the negative impact will be even greater.
Moody's said that paying more attention to bilateral rather than multilateral trade arrangements is not good for Asian economies.