According to the control parameters of newly-increased recoverable reserves and the predicted value of final recoverable resources in China set in Table 5. 1, the analogy prediction model established in this book considering reserve growth and controlling reserve-production ratio can be used to predict the growth of crude oil reserves in China as follows.

Table 5. 1 New recoverable reserves of China crude oil and parameters of production prediction model

5.2. 1. 1 The recoverable resources of crude oil are157.5 million tons.

Under the condition that the recoverable resources are1575 million tons, in 2005, the annual proven rate of resources in China was 1.04%, and the cumulative proven rate of crude oil resources was 43.9 1%. According to the increase rate of newly-increased recoverable reserves 1.6%, the accumulated proven resources are 20 165438. Therefore, under the condition that the resources amount is 65.438+0.575 billion tons, the stable growth stage of the newly-increased recoverable crude oil reserves in China will end at 2065.438+0, and then it will begin to enter the decline stage (Figure 5.3).

Figure 5.3 The proven rate of crude oil resources in China under the condition of recoverable resources of 654.38+05.75 billion tons.

If the stable growth stage of newly-increased reserves ends when the cumulative proven resource rate is 50.511% in 201year, and then it begins to enter the decline stage, the proven resource rate in 20 1 1 year is1. By 2040, the proven rate of annual resources will be reduced to 0.64%, that is, the newly-increased crude oil reserves will be reduced to 654.38 billion tons. It is predicted that by 2 100, the annual proven rate of resources will drop to 0. 19%, that is, the annual newly-increased reserves will drop to 29.93 million tons.

Table 5.2 shows the peak value of new recoverable crude oil reserves in China with 50% cumulative proven rate as the control parameter at the stage of reserve growth under the condition that the recoverable crude oil resources are15.75 billion tons.

Table 5.2 Prediction of the peak recoverable reserves of new crude oil in China in the future (resource amount is157.5 billion tons)

5.2. 1.2 The recoverable resources of crude oil are 1.98 billion tons.

Under the condition that the recoverable resources are1980,000 tons, in 2005, the annual proven rate of resources in China was 0.82%, and the cumulative proven rate of crude oil resources was 34.93%. According to the growth rate of new recoverable reserves 1.6%, the cumulative proven resource rate in 20021year will reach 50 13%. Therefore, under the condition that the resources amount is 65.438+0.98 billion tons, the recoverable reserves of new crude oil in China will reach the growth peak in 2026.5438+0, and then begin to decline (Figure 5.4).

If the stable growth stage of newly-increased reserves ends in 20021year, when the cumulative proven rate of resources is 50. 13%, and then it begins to enter the declining stage, then the annual proven rate of resources will be +0.07% in 20265438, when the newly-increased reserves will be 21200 million tons, and then it will begin to decline at a rate of 2%. By 2058, the annual proven rate of resources will be reduced to 0.5 1%, that is, the newly-increased crude oil reserves will be reduced to 1 100 million tons. It is estimated that by 2 100, the proven rate of annual resources will be reduced to 0.22%, that is, the annual newly-increased reserves will be reduced to 43.56 million tons.

Figure 5.4 Annual proven rate of crude oil resources in China under the condition of recoverable resources of 654.38+98 million tons.

Table 5.3 shows the peak value of new recoverable crude oil reserves in China under the condition that the recoverable crude oil resources are 6543.8+098 million tons and the cumulative proven rate of resources is 50% as the control parameter in the reserve growth stage.

Table 5.3 Prediction of the peak recoverable reserves of new crude oil in China in the future (the resources are 654.38+098 million tons).

5.2. 1.3 The recoverable resources of crude oil are 26.37 billion tons.

In the case of recoverable resources of 26.37 billion tons, the annual proven rate of China resources in 2005 was 0.62%, and the cumulative proven rate of crude oil resources was 26.23%. According to the increase rate of new reserves 1.6%, the cumulative proven rate of resources will reach 50.3 1% in 2035, which is 50% lower than the inflection point threshold set in the stable growth stage and declining stage of new reserves. Therefore, under the condition of 26.37 billion tons of resources, the newly-increased crude oil reserves in China will reach the growth peak in 2035, and then begin to decline (Figure 5.5).

Figure 5.5 Annual proven rate of crude oil resources in China, with recoverable resources of 26.37 billion tons.

If the stable growth stage of newly-increased reserves ends when the cumulative proven resource rate is 50.3 1% in 2035, and then it begins to enter the decline stage, then the proven resource rate in 2035 will be 65.438+0.00%, and the newly-increased reserves in 2035 will be 264 million tons, and then it will begin to decline year by year at the rate of 2%. By 2083, the proven rate of annual resources will be reduced to 0.38%, that is, the newly-increased crude oil reserves will be reduced to 654.38 billion tons. It is predicted that by 2 100, the proven rate of annual resources will be reduced to 0.27%, that is, the annual newly-increased reserves will be reduced to 765,438+200,000 tons.

Table 5.4 shows the peak value of new recoverable crude oil reserves in China under the condition that the recoverable crude oil resources are 26.37 billion tons and the cumulative proven rate of resources is 50% as the control parameters in the reserve growth stage.

Table 5.4 Prediction of the peak recoverable reserves of new crude oil in China in the future (resource amount is 26.37 billion tons).