Eight times a year, the Fed's interest rate decision and four Yellen press conferences will be held together at the end of the US session on the third trading day of this week. There is bound to be a big market turmoil. As for where to go, I think most people must be standing in the space below the trend of gold. In fact, it is not entirely easy to think that there are still places that need attention and consideration.
After falling below 1200, gold once again stood at the top this week and showed an upward trend, indicating that the bears were impatient with the previous interest rate hike expectations and the bulls were impatient, but the market was still biased towards rationality. On Tuesday (March 14), although the daytime gold price climbed to the position of 12 10 again, due to the positive PPI data released by the United States, the dollar was boosted against a basket of currencies, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike this week continued to ferment, and it fell below the 1200 dollar integer mark again in new york. On Wednesday (March 15), the Asian market opened near the mark of 1200 USD/oz, and hit the daily low of 1 197.46 USD/oz earlier. It's still empty at present. Do a single high altitude. The bargain-hunting also needs to wait until next week.
Although European political risks are still supporting the safe-haven demand for gold. But the current situation can ignore these. In addition to the Federal Reserve resolution, important data such as US retail sales and CPI will also be worthy of attention, as well as the Dutch election and the expiration of the US debt ceiling, which means that the storm in the financial market is coming. At present, the market generally expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. If so, there is actually little room for the price of gold to fall. However, if the interest rate is doubled by 50 basis points, it will exceed market expectations. The impact will definitely be that the US dollar has soared against a basket of currencies, and last year, the interest rate hike was said to be implemented about three times this year. If it is confirmed or confidence increases, the influence of excess will also increase. However, on the contrary, Yellen will be cautious about the next move. So at this time, we need to pay attention to the real situation of interest rate decision.
After the interest rate continues, we need to pay attention to the summary of economic expectations, that is, the prediction of interest rates, commonly known as dot matrix. If the Fed's "bitmap" shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is to raise interest rates three times this year, that is, the interest rate range will rise to 1.50- 1.75%, then the dollar will be supported by buying. If it is maintained in the range of 1.25- 1.50%, the rise of the US dollar will probably fade, and the prospects of GDP growth rate and inflationary pressure in 20 17 will remain unchanged, which is expected to bring negative factors to the US economy and the US dollar.
After the resolution, at Yellen's press conference, we need to carefully consider every sentence and every subtle change in the monetary policy statement. And the Federal Reserve's quarterly economic forecast report (SEP) for more details. Including the limitations of global monetary policy, concerns about asset prices/bubbles, optimism about the US economy and inflation. If the Fed explicitly mentions that inflation or unemployment data are improving, it may strengthen the hawkish argument and urge the dollar to continue to rise. If the overall situation remains the same, it will be different.
Technically; Although gold fluctuated above the 1200 mark after the long lead xiaoyang was closed on the daily line last Friday, the rebound of gold price was still insufficient before the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate hike. The bollinger band on the target daily line opens downwards. After the daily line continues to decline, the lower rail of Bollinger Band continues to provide support near 1293. In the short term, we should pay attention to the resistance near the market high on Monday, 12 1 1. At the daily level, the price of gold fell again under pressure overnight, and the overall situation was low consolidation. In terms of indicators, the MACD green kinetic energy column contracted slightly, the double-line dead fork extended downward, the KDJ indicator was at a low level, and the medium-term risk was still on the downside. 4H level, short-term gold prices are still under pressure. If it falls below the previous low 1 195, it may fall to support near 1 180. Before the Fed raises interest rates, the market will not fluctuate greatly, so the author Yao Yang suggested that we should focus on rebounding and shorting temporarily.
Spot gold partial ordering strategy;
1, initial test1195-193, long below, stop loss 1 190, target1208-/kloc.
2. Before the interest rate hike, if the gold price rebounds to short in the range of 1205- 1208, the stop loss is 4 points, and the target is1197-195.
3. Multiple orders can be placed in the lower1185-1180 interval, with a stop loss of 5 points. Look at the target line 12 10- 1220.
Crude oil;
Yesterday, the oil price reported that the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased Saudi production. Although the report shows that, on the whole, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has achieved the production reduction target, with the result exceeding1230,000 barrels per day, Saudi Arabia informed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase its production in February to100,000 barrels per day. During the release of the monthly report, from 19:47 to 19:48, the futures trading volume of American Oil Company in April reached 18739 lots, and the selling orders with a total value of nearly $900 million pushed the WTI crude oil price down sharply in the short term, once falling below $48/barrel. However, in the afternoon session of the US session, API crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly dropped that week. Saudi Arabia explained that the increase in its oil production was due to the increase in domestic inventories, which helped oil prices recover some lost ground overnight.
On Tuesday (March 14), April futures of US Oil fell 0.68 USD/barrel or 1.4% to close at 47.72 USD/barrel, which was the seventh consecutive trading day. Buyou May futures fell 0.43 USD/barrel, or 0.8%, to close at 50.92 USD/barrel, falling for the sixth consecutive trading day.
EIA will release Zhou Du's inventory data tonight. Due to the daylight saving time, the release time will be earlier than last week 1 hour to 22:30. Please pay attention to investors. At present, the market expects that the crude oil inventory will increase by 3.2 million barrels, which is 8.209 million barrels lower than the previous value. In addition, IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report today 17:00, and investors should also pay attention to it.
Some operational strategies of American crude oil;
1, rebound 49.3-49.5 short, stop loss 0.4 points, see the first line of 48.7-48.5 under the target.
2. If the bottom touches 48.3-48. 1 for the first time, the stop loss is 0.3 points and the target is 48.9-49. 1.
Financial data and events focused on today Wednesday, 2065 438+07 03 15
22:00 US NAHB real estate market index in March, US commercial inventory monthly rate 1.
March 22:30 US to 10 week EIA crude oil inventory.
At 02:00 the next morning, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced the interest rate resolution and policy statement.
At 02:30 the next morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen held a press conference.