In order to meet the domestic market demand for PTA consumption, many projects have been built and expanded in PTA production capacity in recent two years. With the completion and commissioning of these projects, the domestic PTA production capacity will be greatly improved, but there will still be a certain gap compared with the growth of consumer demand. Compared with the polyester production line that can be put into production in one year, PTA project needs at least one and a half to two years. It is estimated that by the end of 2007, the PTA production capacity in China will reach about120,000 tons/year. But what is certain is that with the growth of domestic PTA supply capacity, the dependence on imports will gradually decrease.
PTA is continuous production and consumption. Production and consumption can be adjusted according to market conditions. At the same time, PTA spot trading is mainly based on direct sales, and the relationship between upstream and downstream production and sales is relatively stable, with a high production and sales rate. Therefore, manufacturers have little inventory. PTA has high value and takes up a lot of funds. Downstream polyester manufacturers generally only maintain the consumption of 10 days or more. General traders and spot speculators have relatively large inventories. 1, polyester growth determines direct demand.
PTA is mainly used to produce polyester. Production of 1 ton PET requires 0.85-0.86 ton PTA. The development of polyester industry determines the consumption demand of PTA. 1995 The global polyester production capacity was about190,000 tons/year, while China's polyester production capacity was about190,000 tons/year, accounting for10% of the global total production capacity; In 2005, the global production capacity was close to 55 million tons/year, while the polyester production capacity in China reached 2 1.63 million tons/year, accounting for about 40% of the global total production capacity. The average annual growth rate of polyester production capacity in China is 3 times of the global average. In 2005, the polyester production capacity in China reached19.6 million tons. Based on the consumption coefficient of 0.865 and the operating rate of 70%, the PTA consumption is120,000 tons/year, which is basically consistent with the actual apparent consumption of PTA. It is predicted that after 2007, China's polyester production capacity will enter a period of slow growth, and the growth rate will remain at around 5%.
2. Textile growth determines the end demand.
Among polyester products, polyester has the largest demand for PTA, which determines the consumption of PTA. In 2005, of the 26.9 million tons of fiber processing in China textile industry, the output of chemical fiber accounted for 6 1%, and polyester fiber in chemical fiber accounted for nearly 80%. Polyester is the main raw material of textile industry. In other words, the prosperity and development of textile industry directly affects the consumption of polyester market, and then determines the demand for PTA.
There is a close interaction between global GDP and global fiber consumption. Strong economic growth has driven the demand for the final product clothing, which will provide greater development momentum for the textile industry. The development of textile industry promotes the growth of polyester demand, and finally affects the market demand of PTA. According to the statistics released by the WTO, from 2000 to 2004, the global economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.9%, and the average annual growth rate of textile and garment trade reached 6.5% during the same period. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth rate will remain around 4.3% in 2005 and 20 10. It is predicted that the global fiber consumption and textile and garment trade will still grow at a rate of 6.5% in the next five years.
China is the largest textile producer in the world. At home, the national economy has been growing steadily for a long time. China has one fifth of the world's population, and China people wear and use their own clothes, accounting for more than 70% of the total textiles and clothing produced in China. This shows that the development potential of China textile industry lies in domestic demand, and domestic demand is growing rapidly. This is the biggest driving force for the sustainable development of textile industry, including chemical fiber industry. At the same time, textiles are the most competitive bulk export products in China, and China is the largest textile exporter in the world. In addition to domestic demand, the development of domestic textile industry is also affected by trade friction and exchange rate changes in the international market.
In 2005, the per capita fiber consumption in China increased from 7.5 kg in 2000 to 10.7 kg. Among them, the per capita growth rate of polyester fiber is higher than cotton and other fiber varieties. In the next three or four years, it is expected that China's chemical fiber industry will maintain a high growth rate of more than 10%, but the growth rate will gradually decline. It is predicted that after 2008, the growth rate will fall below 10% and reach 20 10, and the chemical fiber production capacity and output growth rate will fall back to 7% and 5% respectively. 20 10 by 2020, the average growth rate will continue to drop to 4% and 3%. The PTA market before 2007 was not optimistic. The price of crude oil once soared, and the raw material PX of PTA also rose. When the sales price of PTA is difficult to increase synchronously, the manufacturer has a loss, but there is nothing he can do. In this case, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and relevant state departments sized up the situation and approved Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to seize the opportunity to list PTA futures as soon as possible. The listing of PTA futures not only solved the urgent needs of many manufacturers, but also made Zhengshang Institute take a new step and completed the leap from agricultural products to industrial products.
With futures, the voice of chemical fiber enterprises will increase.
In the past, enterprises controlled inventory through contract proportion. With futures, we can safely expand the contract volume, use futures to lock in profits, without worrying about rising raw materials, and increase stability.
The actual profit does not come from sales.
As a polyester industry, 80% of the profits come from controlling the cost of raw materials rather than sales! This is one of the characteristics of the industry. Sales are only a means to realize profits. If the price is stable, it must be controlled through sales strategy. Nowadays, not only the international oil price will affect the PTA price, but also any macroeconomic good news will affect the spot price. At present, the futures trading volume is greater than the spot. "In this context, the correlation coefficient of spot price in PTA period is getting bigger and bigger, and its influence is getting bigger and bigger.
20 12 was affected by the financial crisis, the operating rate was insufficient, and the price dropped by about half. Prices fluctuated greatly and inventories depreciated sharply. It is very necessary to judge whether to buy or sell hedging according to the size, shape and inventory of spot orders at different stages.
On the whole, after the listing of PTA futures, the energy and ways for polyester enterprises to avoid risks have increased. At present, the factory can flexibly control the inventory and hedging quantity according to the futures and spot market conditions, and can also control the trading volume and price to a certain extent.
PTA futures price has a great influence on contract pricing.
Nowadays, the spot trading volume is getting less and less, and more and more people participate in futures. Futures prices directly guide spot prices. Spot trading volume has stages. When it's low, people start buying. Spot prices are rising, everyone is operating futures, and there is no market.
Before PTA futures, the settlement prices of PTA suppliers were in the hands of suppliers themselves, and downstream polyester enterprises had no room for negotiation at all. It's different now. At the end of each year, we begin to discuss the next year's contract with suppliers and discuss the quantity and discount. The settlement price will be fixed in 1 month and fluctuate with the monthly market fluctuation. The settlement price is the average price of the supplier according to the average spot price and the average futures price of the current month, plus the cost of capital and freight. This price will be fairer than the previous PTA futures.
Chemical fiber companies have ingenious ways to make use of the futures market.
There are two aspects in the use of PTA futures hedging in chemical fiber plants: First, after entering the goods, they are most worried about the price drop, and often adjust their future positions at any time by selling them in the futures market to avoid the risk of price drop. If prices rise, close the futures market. The price of finished products is only a way to realize profits, and the actual profits come from the control of raw material prices and costs. Compared with before, chemical fiber enterprises have more room to control costs. We can not only make delivery purchase in the futures market, but also make contract orders from PTA manufacturers to reduce the cost of raw materials by combining maturity and cash. Second, through the continuous futures moving operation, PTA spot price has been locked.