1. As of1October 22nd 10, the soybean oil inventory in coastal areas was 847 10000 tons, down 5. 12% from the previous month and down 17.77% from the same period in five years. In the first three weeks of this month, the North China Oil Plant started to work unsteadily, the spot inventory continued to digest, the marketable spot inventory decreased obviously, and the soybean oil inventory fell again. Since last week, oil plants in coastal areas have resumed work, but they still operate according to local regulations, and it is still difficult to accumulate soybean oil stocks in the later period.
2. Recently, the domestic soybean oil price showed a V-shaped reversal. USDA's June supply and demand report 5438+065438+ 10 was favorable, and the spot deterioration supported the market, and the price of soybean oil reached a record high.
3. The sudden change in COVID-19 increased the variables of global economic recovery and triggered panic selling in financial markets. Affected by this, soybean oil futures continued to fall, and the main contract currently fell by more than 1%.
1) After the National Day holiday, due to the poor start-up of the upstream oil plant, the spot supply in Shandong, Tianjin and other regions was in a tight state, and the terminal just needed to purchase, which supported a strong spot foundation. Since the beginning of this week, the oil plants in Shandong and Tianjin have started to work faster, and it is expected that the supply in short supply will be alleviated. However, this week, public health incidents in Shandong and other places reappeared, which limited the shipment. On the whole, the contract basis weakened after 1 1.
2) In terms of global oils and fats, the harvest of main oils and fats is coming to an end, and the supply of soybean oil and sunflower oil in the international market is gradually increasing. In particular, Russia raised the export tariff of sunflower oil in June 5438+February, and the export volume of sunflower oil may increase in June 5438+065438+1October. The change of supply pattern has narrowed the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in the international market and expanded the price difference between sunflower oil and soybean oil. Soybean oil is relatively cheap.
3) From the perspective of oil fundamentals, according to Da Rui Futures Monitoring, the stock of soybean oil in major domestic oil plants is 820,000 tons, an increase of 1 10,000 tons compared with last week. It decreased by 30,000 tons, decreased by 370,000 tons year-on-year, and decreased by 1.55 million tons in the same period in the past three years. The operating rate of oil plants will increase in the next two weeks, and soybean oil inventories are expected to continue the upward trend. Recently, the oil price difference between soybean and palm oil has rebounded to a reasonable level, indicating that the substitution effect of soybean oil on palm oil has appeared. However, the sudden changes in COVID-19 have added variables to the global economic recovery, and the long-term funds in the market have left. The market is worried that the blockade will be triggered again in the later period, which will have a certain impact on oil demand.