First, the morphological theory
The classic price forms are double top, double bottom, triple top, triple bottom, dome, round bottom, head and shoulder top, head and shoulder bottom, V-shaped and inverted V-shaped. In the use of forms, traders always feel ambiguous and specious, and there are often many mistakes or misjudgments. The main reason is that there are too many deviations between the classic form of teaching materials and the actual market trend, which is reflected in the time span and structural strength of the form.
Time span: the form formed by too short or too short time span has little effect, and the market generated by the form with a time span of about 4 months belongs to the upper-middle level, with high reliability and strong effectiveness.
Structural strength: it is a series of K-line performances displayed by Boyi, a long and short power. It is best to have a shrinking positive line at the important position of the bottom morphological structure, which is carefully bred by bulls; It is best to have a large number of negative lines in the important position of the top morphological structure, even a big negative line with a gap downward. The composition of the top form generally contains bears with greater energy, and this form will produce more power in the later stage.
Second, the index judgment
There are many indicators of technical analysis, which are too numerous to mention. We can judge the top and bottom markets above the middle level by the deviation of MACD. The indicator deviation of MACD can be divided into two situations: one is the deviation within the same cycle trend; The other is the deviation between cross-cycle trends.
Deviation within the same cycle trend means that the red column peaks of two adjacent MACD indicators are in a state of deviation, that is, the peak of the latest red column peak is lower than that of the previous red column peak. This shows that the current upward trend, long energy is gradually consumed and in a state of exhaustion, and short energy shows signs of growth. Generally speaking, when this "internal deviation" occurs, a short market may appear at any time, that is, the top may come at any time.
The deviation between intertemporal trends means that when the price peaks of two adjacent trend markets appear, the MACD indicator red column values of these two positions deviate, that is, the latest red column peak value is lower than the previous red column peak value. This situation shows that the market is sensitive to the pressure response of the previous price peak. At present, the bullish energy in the market can not effectively break through the previous price peak, and at this time, it is easy to have a "false breakthrough" market, that is, it is easy to have a double top.
Third, K-line theory.
The performance of K-line long-short contention is divided into many situations. Mainly divided into: multi-space gaining momentum, multi-space fighting and multi-space acceleration. The density of yin and yang lines in K-line and the length of K-line itself are an index to measure the long and short energy. According to these K-lines with different characteristics, investors can preliminarily judge the situation of long and short positions, better understand the situation faced by futures prices and make better investment judgments.
If the futures price is relatively low, the K-line generally fluctuates very little, showing a short negative line, a short positive line and a cross star. Under special circumstances, in the bottom market formed by the plunge, the K line at this stage may be a long yinxian line that accelerates continuously. When the futures price is at a relatively high level, the K-line generally fluctuates greatly, showing as a long yinxian line or a long yangxian line, accompanied by possible price limits. When the futures price belongs to the relay stage of rising or falling, or can rise or fall sideways, the K-line is generally alternating with the Yin-Yang K-line, with moderate fluctuation range. This point can be easily and intuitively summarized by traders on the disk.
There are many ways to judge the top and bottom of technical analysis, such as wave analysis, magic number, technical figure, and one-day inversion of form. However, as an auxiliary means, technical analysis will become more reliable only by combining daily life logic analysis with macro-fundamental analysis.