Xinhua Sheng once mentioned in the "Dollar Doomsday Theory" that excess dollars will be transmitted to the spot market of bulk commodities through the futures market, so that inflation will be transmitted from the asset field to the physical production field. He Xin also mentioned in the proposal on agriculture during the two sessions that the international agricultural product price is no longer determined solely by the contradiction between supply and demand, but depends more on the international agricultural product futures price.
So, what will happen to the international gold market?
The author accidentally saw a paragraph 1 in "Baidu _ Currency Wars", and the excerpt is as follows:
"Although paper money or asset securities are not real wealth, they will distort the price of wealth. For example, the Federal Reserve will intervene in the price of gold every Friday afternoon. The specific approach is: first find a few well-known scholars and let them say something. Gold speculation has gone too far. The price of gold will definitely fall, thus laying a public opinion foundation for intervening in the price of gold; Later, after the close of the London Gold Exchange, which traded physical gold, its agent dropped a large number of selling orders in the new york Gold Exchange, which traded gold promissory notes. As the promissory note transaction does not involve gold itself, short sellers can easily drop orders of nearly 10,000 tons. When the loss exceeds 10%, all unprepared small and medium investors will automatically throw away their gold promissory notes, thus effectively controlling the price of gold. "
Following this line of thought, the author searched the daily K-line chart 2 of spot gold for one year (I couldn't find a detailed K-line chart before, and would be grateful if some netizens could provide it), and marked several obvious turning points (see figure) respectively, and found an interesting phenomenon:
Mark 1, Tuesday, October 2nd, 2007 15.4 USD/oz;
Bid 2, Monday, 2007 165438+ 10/2, down 3 1.2 USD/oz;
Bid 3, 20071Tuesday, October 27th, 1 13.4 USD/oz;
Bid 4, Tuesday 65438+15,08, down 9.4 USD/oz;
Bid 6, Tuesday, February 2008, 12, down 18.2 USD/oz;
Bid 7, Tuesday, March 4, 2008, fell by $23.9 per ounce;
Bid 8, March 2008 18, Tuesday, down $26/oz;
The above plunge positions, except for the time marked as Monday, are all Tuesday. And:
Bid 5, February Friday, 2008 1, down 18 USD/oz;
Bid 9, Friday, March 28th, 2008, down 16. 1 USD/oz;
Both plunge positions are on Friday.
The stock market has the saying "Black Monday". As for the gold market, the phenomenon of "Tuesday" may be explained by the following conjecture:
The empty side of the gold market (Federal Reserve, etc. ) Taking advantage of the fact that the London gold spot market was closed on Friday while the new york gold futures market was still trading, a large number of selling orders were thrown out (in terms of 10,000 tons, futures were not ready for spot delivery before maturity, in other words, they could "sell like crazy" without gold in their hands), and at the same time, they used public opinion to sing empty gold, which was fully "fermented" on Saturday and Sunday, and was finally reflected in next week's trading. As long as the price drop breaks through the psychological defense line of ordinary small and medium investors (5%? ), even if you finish. ...
Then why is the gold market "Tuesday" instead of "Monday"? Perhaps it is because it takes a certain trading time and quantity to transmit from the futures market to the spot market. The turning points of gold prices at 1, 3, 6 and 8 are all Tuesdays, while the price of gold on Monday of the previous day basically fluctuated within $5/oz (the trading volume has not been found, and interested users can supplement it).
Then why did it drop a little on Friday? Perhaps it can be explained that in some special price-sensitive periods, such as when the price of gold exceeds the historical high of 850 USD/oz, at this time, many parties tend to take profits temporarily, or charge dollars by shorting backhand to prepare for eating more gold. Therefore, the short-selling action of the empty side on Friday immediately received the effect. Five gold prices in the chart are in the process of breaking through $900/oz and sprinting to 1 1,000/oz, while nine gold prices in the chart are in the process of falling from 1 1,000/oz to $900/oz and then rebounding upwards.
The fundamental reason for trying to manipulate the price of gold is that gold, a "pre-world currency", is the most important reference to test the purchasing power of US dollars (paper money). As long as the price of gold priced in dollars remains unchanged for a long time, it can be proved that the purchasing power of the dollar remains unchanged, and it can be proved that the dollar has not depreciated. In other words, the current issuance system of the US dollar as the world currency is based on the long-term short selling of gold. If the price of gold and dollar skyrockets, the dollar issuance system will face major adjustments.
In the currency war, gold was regarded as a "one-yang finger" to puncture the dollar bubble, which may be the reason.