China Banking Regulatory Commission: Promoting the effective transformation of residents' savings into long-term funds in the capital market through multiple channels

The new American law restricts the export of artificial intelligence software, which came into effect on June 6, 65438.

Market review

Market comments: Friday's market contraction fluctuated, and intraday adjustment was still a low-sucking opportunity.

Macro perspective: The central bank has formulated seven key tasks in 2020 to maintain a stable, flexible and moderate monetary policy.

New energy vehicles: Tesla delivered more than expected in the fourth quarter, and the domestic model 3 announced an official drop of over 30,000.

Futures information

Metal energy: gold 352.24, up 0.92%; Copper 48730, down 0.69%; Rebar 3562, up 0.28%; Rubber 12960, up by 0.86%; The PVC index was 6500, up by 0.08%; Zheng Chun 2237, up 0.81%; Shanghai Aluminum 14 135, up by 0.86%; Shanghai nickel 108070, down1.91%; Iron ore was 667.5, up 0.68%; Coke 1873.5, up 0.21%; Coking coal 1 179, up 0.13%; Crude oil was 500.3, up 2.73%;

Agricultural products: soybean oil 68 18, down 0.50%; Corn 19 13, down 0.36%; Palm oil 63 18, down 0.82%; Cotton 13935, down 0.71%; Zheng Mai 2477, up 0.00%; Sugar 5582, up 0.16%; Apple 7589, down 2.10%;

Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1. 1 159, down 0.13%; USD/RMB 6.9666, up 0.11%; USD/HK$ 7.7788, down 0. 12%.

(The above futures data are from Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)

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Main recommendations

1, CBRC: Promote the effective conversion of residents' savings into long-term funds in the capital market through multiple channels.

China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently issued guidance on promoting the high-quality development of banking and insurance. The opinion pointed out that insurance institutions should return to the source of risk protection, play the role of economic "shock absorber" and social "stabilizer", and better provide risk protection and long-term stable funds for economic and social development. Vigorously develop enterprise annuities, occupational annuities and various health endowment insurance businesses, and promote the effective conversion of residents' savings into long-term funds in the capital market through multiple channels.

Comments: 20 19 is the first year of the financial subsidiary. As of February 8, 20 19, at least 32 banks have announced that they intend to set up wealth management subsidiaries, among which six major banks, including China Everbright and China Merchants Bank, and their wealth management subsidiaries have officially opened. Promoting the effective conversion of residents' savings into long-term funds in the capital market through multiple channels is not only beneficial to the A-share market, but also beneficial to the establishment of insurance companies and banks with wealth management subsidiaries.

(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)

2. The new American law restricts the export of artificial intelligence software, which came into effect on June 6, 65438.

According to Reuters, on June 3rd, 65438, the US government announced measures to restrict the export of artificial intelligence (AI) software to prevent sensitive technologies from falling into the hands of competitors such as China.

According to reports, according to a new regulation coming into effect on October 6th, 65438/KLOC-0, the US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) revised the Export Regulation (EAR), and American companies must obtain and send overseas software specially used for automatically analyzing geospatial images (using AI to analyze the data provided by remote sensing satellites, we can identify the buildings and spatial geographic changes on the ground, correct the images taken by satellites, and obtain more accurate coordinate parameters). As mentioned in the report of the US government, the reason why the United States controls the export of these softwares is that it is worried that hostile countries will use these softwares to produce military or intelligence advantages for the United States; Or for foreign policy reasons, the US government must control exports.

Comments: The United States restricts the export of artificial intelligence (AI) software products. Among A-share listed companies, companies mainly involved in artificial intelligence software are expected to get import substitution opportunities. It is expected that the relevant stocks will have trading opportunities in the short term, but it is not recommended to participate in heavy positions.

(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)

Market review

1, market comment: Friday's market contraction fluctuated, and intraday adjustment was still a low-sucking opportunity.

On Friday, the two cities opened slightly higher, maintaining a wide fluctuation trend throughout the day. Network celebrity economic sector differentiation, active concept of genetically modified, multiple daily limit, pre-increased performance, blockchain, mobile payment. In the afternoon, affected by the sudden war between the United States and Iraq, the market dipped slightly and basically recovered lost ground in the late session. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3,083.79 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0. 17% to 10656.4 1 point, and the Growth Enterprise Market rose 0. 18% to1point.

After the market closed on Friday, the CBRC issued the Guiding Opinions of China Banking Regulatory Commission on Promoting the High-quality Development of Banking and Insurance Industry, which clearly pointed out that banking and insurance institutions should adapt to the development trend of direct financing in China and encourage residents' savings to be effectively converted into long-term funds in the capital market. If the principle of this policy can be implemented, it will be good for A shares in the medium and long term. Back in the market, it is unlikely that the conflict between the United States and Iraq will turn into a full-scale hot war, but the short-term emotional impact on the market is objective. This may cause some interference to the disk surface. However, investors need firm confidence at this time. The war between the United States and Iraq will increase the bargaining chip of the Sino-US peace talks, except for the oil price, which will have limited impact on China's overall economy. In operation, the company mainly holds shares, and can pay attention to event-driven sectors such as military industry and gold in the short term. Mid-line funds suggest using the opportunity of falling back to lay out stocks in sectors such as high-quality finance, real estate, technological growth and new energy.

(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)

2. Macro perspective: The central bank has formulated seven key tasks in 2020 to maintain a stable, flexible and moderate monetary policy.

Cailian 65438+ 10 5, the 2020 Central Bank Work Conference was held in Beijing. Regarding the work in 2020, the meeting requested: First, maintain a stable, flexible and moderate monetary policy. Second, resolutely win the battle to prevent and resolve major financial risks. Third, efforts should be made to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises and increase financial support for supply-side structural reforms. The fourth is to speed up the improvement of the macro-prudential management framework. Fifth, continue to deepen financial reform and opening up. Sixth, strengthen the research and development and application of financial technology. Seventh, comprehensively improve the level of financial services and financial management.

Investment Comments: The key task of the central bank in 2020 emphasizes maintaining a prudent monetary policy, and the general direction is to maintain a strong currency, which directly rejects the possibility of flooding. Whether it is the property market or the stock market, the possibility of a rapid and sharp rise in 2020 due to monetary stimulus is almost zero. A prudent monetary policy is flexible and moderate, mainly focusing on whether the economy can stabilize and rebound. In the short term, the downward pressure on the economy is still there, and monetary policy will be stable and loose. The trend of RRR interest rate reduction and LPR interest rate reduction will remain unchanged, which will also play a positive role in promoting the A-share market.

(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)

3. New energy vehicles: Tesla delivered more than expected in the fourth quarter, and the domestic model 3 announced an official drop of over 30,000.

On the evening of Friday, October 3rd, 65438/kloc-0, Tesla announced that in the fourth quarter of 20 19, the company exceeded its expected target, with production and sales of about 10.5 million vehicles and10.20 million vehicles respectively. In the whole year of 20 19, Tesla delivered about 368,000 vehicles, an increase of 50% compared with 20 18, and achieved the annual target.

At the same time, Tesla announced that the basic car price of domestic Model3 will be lowered from 355,800 yuan to 323,800 yuan from now on. Together with the purchase tax exemption policy and new energy subsidies, the final price of domestic Model3 after subsidies is only 299,050 yuan, and the down payment can be as low as 45,000 yuan.

Investment Comments: In the fourth quarter, the production and sales of Model3 were about 87,000 vehicles and 93,000 vehicles respectively, which was the main factor driving Tesla's delivery data to exceed expectations, mainly due to Tesla Giga Shanghai. After Tesla was put into production in Shanghai, its production capacity expanded rapidly. It is estimated that Tesla's production capacity will further increase in 2020. At the same time, as an entry-level model of Tesla, model 3 is expected to maintain a double harvest of production and sales after its official decline. Among the first domestic car owners delivered by Tesla, the localization rate of supply chain has reached 30%, and it is expected that the localization rate will reach more than 70% in 2020. Related enterprises in Tesla's domestic supply chain deserve long-term attention.

(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)