At the awarding ceremony of the 20 13 National Futures Company Competition, the winners Wang Xingmin, Zhang Xiaoliang, Cheng Jian and Li Yongshun all talked about the sense of disk, and the host also hoped that the author would talk about the understanding of disk. The speech time at the meeting is limited, and I feel that I haven't finished my speech yet. So I had an in-depth exchange with the participants after the meeting, during which I felt a lot and wrote it down for everyone to share.
The sense of disk is somewhat similar to what we call hunch, intuition, sixth sense and even subconscious. Although there is no strict definition, it basically belongs to the category of seeing the micro-knowledge and seeing the micro-knowledge. We believe that the sense of disk is actually a kind of ability to distinguish fluctuations and draw relatively reliable conclusions from incomplete information. Similarly, people with good sense of disk must capture more detailed information and have stronger ability to summarize than others. So the sense of disk is a kind of high-dimensional thinking. People with a sense of disk can see what others have not seen and think of what others have not thought of.
Where does a good sense of disk come from? Some people say it's life, others say it's the day after tomorrow, and I say it's yesterday. Of course, I mean, having a good sense of disk requires not only innate sensitivity, but also conscious tempering and accumulation.
Many experts in the technology industry rely on intuition, and one common feature of such experts is that their skills are not easily copied or replaced by computers. This advantage is a structural advantage: everyone knows what you are doing, but they can't learn. The accuracy of these experts who judge or react intuitively is quite high. Is this intuition groundless speculation, following experience, or has its inherent logic? Everyone thinks that experience is at work. I agree with this view, but at the same time, I also think that this judgment or reaction also has internal logic, which is different from empirical logic and we call it "micro-logic".
The judgment in some fields is artistic, which seems illogical, but this ability is real. We call this "illogical" ability to draw reliable conclusions or make correct responses "micro-logic" ability. Generally speaking, there are three ways to judge a thing: strong logic, micro logic and no logic. Among them, strong logic is consistent with syllogism, illogical is completely ingenious and groundless speculation, and "micro-logic" is to perceive trends according to subtle trends. In fact, when people communicate, the information conveyed by the body is often more than that conveyed by the language, so it is impossible for a person to completely shield his true information and completely disguise himself. The market can't be completely disguised, but you have the micro-logic ability to capture the subtle body language of the market.
A person with a good sense of disk must have the ability to obtain inconspicuous and subtle information that others can't catch. Different people observe the same market and come to different conclusions. For example, the reliability of the conclusion is very different from the subtle changes of instant pending orders, trading volume and short positions, which is the difference of micro-logic ability. Although the futures market is changing rapidly, there must be unusual signs before the inflection point appears. Although these phenomena may be discrete and disguised, you can observe these subtle changes and react in time.
The sense of disk comes not from the cleverness of guessing coins, but from the accumulation of yesterday. It is a market feeling that melts into the blood, and it is a subconscious reaction. If you want to have a good sense of the disk, you must adhere to a certain pattern, carefully observe and summarize, train, train and retrain until you vibrate with the market.
Investing is like a penalty. It is difficult to predict which direction the ball will go in advance, but you must choose a direction to save the ball according to your opponent's subtle little moves before serving, such as eye movements and body movements. How to jump into a penalty from the backcourt requires a good sense of disk and strong execution ability.