However, the value of the "second brother" seems to be rising. After more than a year of continuous downturn, the price of live pigs has obviously rebounded since July. Recently, however, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the current pig production capacity has generally returned to normal levels, and the price does not have the basis for a sharp increase.
The number of live pigs remains stable, and the productivity of fertile sows is in a normal and reasonable area. In July, pig breeding turned losses into profits. At the same time, the market still has great differences on the trend of pig price in the later period.
The losses of nine pig enterprises exceeded 654.38+0.39 billion.
As of July 19, 2009, except Wen's shares, the other nine major A-share pig breeding listed companies have released semi-annual forecast data.
According to the statistics of Oriental Fortune choice, among the nine listed companies, eight listed companies, including Mu Yuan, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Luoniushan, Dong Rui, Xinwufeng, Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, and Shennong Group, all suffered losses in advance, and only Tianbang Food turned losses into profits. Overall, the lowest value of pre-loss of nine companies in the semi-annual report totaled 65.438+03.945 billion yuan, while the highest value of pre-loss totaled 65.438+058./kloc-0.7 billion yuan.
/kloc-On the evening of July, 2004, the semi-annual performance forecast of "Pig Hair" Mu Yuan shares revealed that during the reporting period, the amount of live pigs sold increased significantly year-on-year, while the price of live pigs dropped significantly year-on-year, resulting in a sharp decline in the performance in the first half of the year and the first loss. Mu Yuan expects a net profit loss of 6.3 billion yuan to 6.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down16613% ~172.43% year-on-year.
Zhengbang technology is also having a hard time. Following Mu Yuan's footsteps, listed companies are expected to lose about 3.8 billion yuan to 4.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, down 65,438+065.72% year-on-year to 2,265,438+0.66%.
During the reporting period, Zhengbang Technology slaughtered 4,845,200 pigs, down 30.75% year-on-year; The average selling price of commercial pigs was 12.74 yuan/kg, down 37.49% year-on-year, and the price of feed raw materials rose, resulting in pressure on performance. As a result, Zhengbang Technology also makes the existing production capacity not match the production scale, which leads to the low utilization rate of the overall production capacity and the increase of depreciation and amortization expenses.
At the same time, New Hope continues to suffer huge losses. It is estimated that the net profit loss in the first half of 2022 will be 3.9-4.2 billion yuan, compared with 3.4 34. 1.5 billion yuan in the same period last year. During the reporting period, the sales price of new hope pigs dropped sharply, with 6,848,200 pigs sold, up 5,355,438+0% year-on-year. The increase in sales volume and the decrease in sales price have led to the loss of the new hope pig industry.
It should be pointed out that although Tianbang Food's net profit turned into profit, its main pig business was not spared. Tianbang Food predicts a net profit of 580 million yuan to 650 million yuan in the first half of this year, up189.16% ~199.92% year-on-year, compared with a loss of 65 10/00000 yuan in the same period last year. In fact, in the first half of 2022, Tianbang Food's net profit turned into profit, and the main contribution came from the investment income of 65.438+94 billion yuan generated by the transfer of 565.438% equity of its subsidiary.
After deduction, Tianbang Food's net profit was a loss of 730 million yuan to 800 million yuan, which was very close to last year's loss of 784 million yuan. Tianbang Food said that the pig breeding business suffered losses in the first half of the year, the overall pig price was still at a low level, and the feed price was at a high level, which brought double pressure to Tianbang Food's pig breeding. However, from the trend point of view, with the gradual recovery of pig prices in the second quarter, the company's pig production capacity has stabilized and rebounded, and the benefits have improved. The loss in the second quarter has been significantly narrowed compared with the first quarter.
/kloc-in July, 2005, Liu Yonghao, the chairman of New Hope Group, said at the 40th anniversary meeting of the group that in the past two years, the aquaculture industry was facing great pressure and uncertainty, and the industry was greatly challenged. Enterprises are facing various difficulties, and the new hope Liuhe has also suffered unprecedented losses in history. I wish the trough of the pig cycle will end as soon as possible and develop in a good direction as soon as possible. However, Liu Yonghao believes that enterprises should not rely on the cycle to eat, but should form the ability to overcome and spend the cycle, which is the essence of the company's operation.
Production capacity has returned to normal level.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from July 4 to July 10, 2022, the average purchase price of pigs in designated pig slaughter enterprises above designated size was 22.26 yuan/kg, up 13.5% from the previous month and 30.6% from the same period last year. The average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 28.58 yuan/kg, up 13% month-on-month and up 25.6% year-on-year.
On July 13, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on pig production in Cangzhou City, Hebei Province, pointing out that the current situation of pig production is generally stable and improving, the stock of pigs remains stable, the productivity of fertile sows is in a normal and reasonable area, and pig breeding has turned losses into profits.
In addition, on July 14, the main contract of live pig futures in the domestic futures market closed at 22,300 yuan/ton, while on July 12, the main contract reached a high of 23,290 yuan/ton, up nearly 45% from mid-March. According to the data of Souzhu.com, the average domestic hog price 13 soared to a recent high of 22.6 yuan/kg in July. At present, the whole industry has completely got rid of losses, and the profit of each fat pig can probably reach around 500 yuan.
Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. disclosed in the latest announcement of investor relations activities that the total cost of pig breeding decreased steadily in the second quarter, and the total cost in the current period was slightly higher than 15.5 yuan/kg. It is roughly estimated that the impact of rising grain prices on the company's unit farming cost since the beginning of last year is about 1.5 yuan/kg ~ 1.8 yuan/kg. Considering the influence of external factors such as the rapid rise of raw material prices, the company's cost target in 2022 is to realize the complete breeding cost 14.5 yuan /kg ~ 15 yuan /kg in stages.
A person in charge of pig fattening in Yanting, Mianyang revealed in an interview that the pig industry had lost money for too long in the early stage, and many farms withdrew from the market, resulting in some fattening bases being vacant. With the gradual recovery of the market, some farmers have the demand for supplementary bars, and there is a shortage of piglets in the market.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the second quarter, the output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, of which pork increased by 2.4%. At the end of the second quarter, there were 430.57 million live pigs, down 65.438 0.9% year-on-year, among which 42.77 million sows could be bred. 365.87 million pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 8.4%.
On July 15, when answering a reporter's question about the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2022, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that whether the pork price that everyone cares about will affect the overall increase of CPI is generally limited. At present, the overall production capacity of live pigs has returned to the normal level, and the price does not have the basis for a sharp increase. In the early stage, big pigs were released one after another, which was conducive to increasing the supply of pork. In addition, relevant departments will strengthen market regulation and stabilize the relationship between supply and demand, which will promote the stable operation of prices.
According to the latest report of Da Rui Futures Research Institute, the main factor affecting the price of live pigs is still the relationship between supply and demand. This time, NDRC talked about pig head enterprises, and the intention of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices was obvious. According to the statistics of the designated sample enterprises of Mysteel Agricultural Products 123, in June, there were 4718,800 sows, an increase of 1.94% from the previous month and a decrease of1.49% from the same period last year. In June, there were 28,539,800 commercial pigs, up 0.62% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year. As a result, in the context of poor performance on the consumer side, it is difficult for pig prices to improve.
Galaxy Securities believes that the pig price is at a high level, and it is expected to improve in the third quarter, but at the same time, the market has great differences on the trend of pig price in the later period.
Founder Securities Research Report pointed out that the pig breeding capacity has been reduced or exceeded expectations, and the result of de-capacity will be gradually realized in the second half of the year. Judging from the data of fertile sows from all parties, except the sterile range of fertile sows in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is 8.5%, the data of fertile sows from all parties are between15% and 20%, and even the pig enterprises listed on the head have reduced their production capacity to varying degrees. As an ex ante indicator, according to the data of the feed industry association, the feed sales of the female pigs in one season decreased by 22% year-on-year; For listed companies, the sales of sow feed in Tang Renshen decreased by 365,438+0% in the first quarter.
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