In the past, the main source of income for securities firms was commission, while assets were neglected. As long as the market comes, the turnover is enlarged, and the profit growth rate is like a rocket.
At present, the brokerage commission is extremely low, the proportion of on-site institutions is getting higher and higher, and the commission income is becoming more and more insignificant. Most of them make money by financing and pledge loans. Isn't this a bank? If you have to rely on heavy assets to make money, then the valuation depends on banks.
This is actually a logical change of brokers. The PE of banks is mostly below 10 times. Now brokers should be slightly higher according to the bank's valuation, and they should fall a lot.
Recently, brokers have become the "abandoned children" of most people! Let's talk about it
The first wrong logic, why don't brokers go up?
Actually, it's not that it won't go up, but it's not yet time.
This is mainly because the holding market is white horse stock, which is the core theme stock. Such stocks are generally held in a bear market to stabilize the index and ease downward pressure.
But this time, due to the participation of foreign capital and internal funds, a group has been formed, and brokers must not follow. Otherwise, brokers will follow up, banks, cycles, etc. It will go up, and it has reached the bubble valuation. Who will protect the market? Who can stabilize the index in a bear market?
The second wrong logic, retail investors are optimistic about brokers, so they don't go up!
It is a false proposition that retail investors are optimistic about brokers!
1, although many people are optimistic, not many people actually buy and hold for a long time;
2. Even if there are many people who are optimistic, there are many people who buy, and the number they hold is not much, they can't compare with institutions at all; (See the data for details. )
The third wrong logic is that there are many retail investors, and institutions are unwilling to lift sedan chairs for retail investors!
Many retail investors may hold brokers, but the number is not large, and even many of them entered in July last year, which is a loss state. Once back, retail investors run faster than rabbits.
Therefore, institutions are not worried about giving sedan chairs to retail investors at all, because human nature has never changed, and most retail investors are saying, "Shit, it's sold out! If only I had caught it! "
Finally, I want to say that there can't be brokers in the bull market!
Every bull market is started by brokers:
The uplift index at the beginning of bull market;
Constantly stabilize and attack in the bull market;
And the crazy buying after the bull market;
Moreover, the index of every big bull market must increase by at least 100%. The contribution of this increase must not rely solely on the white horse and the core, but must return to the financial+cycle.
So it's not that brokers don't go up, but that the time has not yet arrived.
Most undervalued head brokers are actually not broken, just shaking and washing dishes normally in the box, but most retail investors are too weak to bear it. Speculative chasing up and down always makes them buy at a high level and cut meat at a low level.
I think there are several reasons why brokers do not go up:
1, too many retail investors. Logic beats numbers too much, and the market goes up like this. Why don't brokers go up? And many big V are optimistic about oversold big technology and brokers. Therefore, retail investors follow closely the stock critics and firmly hold them. Some people are still making up their positions, and the more they make up, the more they fall. Don't go to crowded places, especially where there are many retail investors.
2. Both stocks and futures are trending. At present, the overall position of brokers is broken, hitting a new low. Tickets with a downward trend can only be short-term, and every big rise is an opportunity for arbitrage, and it is impossible to change the trend. Even Wen Tai science and technology, ZTE and other long-term good big bibcock also rose a wave, and finally returned to the starting point. Because at the top of every interval in the process of falling, a large number of lock plates are gathered. If the brokerage firm in your hand rebounds after the holiday, you must clear the position when you hit the previous high.
3. Brokerage has become a tool for major market participants to adjust the index. 1On the day of the plunge on October 29, 65438, the main force turned over the bank's cards and stabilized the index. And brokers may become the last card. But it is not the main force, and there are liquor, construction machinery and so on in front. At most, it is a logistics force. Now the big troops are advancing step by step, of course, there is no logistics force.
Unfortunately, the index is too hot, and the main force will continue to suppress brokers in order to control the rhythm, so as to avoid the index rising too much. Because every broker has its own market, selling its own shares and then buying them back at a cheaper price, isn't it delicious?
4. The market is currently running in a new box, and the last box is at 3200-3450. In theory, the current round of the box is at 3450-3700 points, but there are too many A-share retail investors, and the mood is easy to overheat. If it goes up, it will pass, and if it goes down, it will pass. Therefore, it is estimated that it will rush to around 3720 points after the holiday, with an extreme height of 3750 points. There will definitely be a big adjustment at that time, and continue to test the support of 3450 points. It is expected that the main force will start the brokerage support. The spring has been pressed for too long, so it must rebound.