I. Domestic and foreign resources
(A) the world chromite resources
By 2009, the world's chromite (commercial grade ore, the same below) reserves exceeded 350 million tons, and the resources exceeded 654.38+0.2 billion tons. The countries rich in chromite resources mainly include Kazakhstan, South Africa, India, Zimbabwe, Finland, Brazil, Turkey, Russia and Albania (Figure 1), of which more than 95% of the basic reserves are distributed in South Africa and Kazakhstan.
For a long time, the world chromite market has been oversupply and the production capacity is relatively surplus. At present, the chromite resources in the world can meet the global demand for more than 100 years.
(2) Chromite resources in China.
According to the 2009 national mineral resources reserve bulletin, by the end of 2009, there were 67 chromite mines in China, with total resources of110000 tons (ore, the same below), resources of 6.285 million tons and basic reserves of 5.225 million tons (including recoverable reserves of/kloc-0)
Figure1Distribution of World Chromite Reserves in 2009
Figure 2 Distribution of basic reserves of chromite in China in 2009
Second, the production situation at home and abroad
(I) Production Status of Chromite in the World
According to the statistics of the US Geological Survey, the world chromite production in 2009 was 23 million tons (ore quantity, the same below), which was 3.4% lower than that in 2008 (table 1). The main producers of chromite are South Africa (9.6 million tons), Kazakhstan (3.6 million tons) and India (3.9 million tons), and the total output of the three countries accounts for 74.3% of the world's total output.
Table1World Chromite (Concentrate) Output from 2004 to 2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, April 2007; ICDA, Statistical Bulletin, 2009; Summary of mineral products, 20 10, 1
According to the data of International Chromium Development Association (ICDA), in 2009, the world output of ferrochromium was 6.452 million tons (including 5.925 million tons of high-carbon ferrochromium and 527,000 tons of low-carbon ferrochromium), which was 21.88 million tons lower than that of the previous year (Figure 3). Among them, South Africa's ferrochrome output was 2310.7 million tons, down by 28.5%.
Figure 3 1990-2009 World output of chromite and ferrochromium alloy
According to ICDA statistics, the global output of chromite from October to September was 20 10/58.44 million tons, up 40.9% year-on-year. Since the beginning of 20 10, the global ferrochrome production has rebounded, and the demand for chrome ore has also picked up. In the first half of 20 10, the global ferrochrome output totaled 4.66110,000 tons, an increase of 82.5% compared with 2.554 million tons in the same period of 2009. Among them, South Africa's ferrochrome output was 6.5438+0.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 250.3%.
(II) Production Status of Chromite in China
Since China started mining chromite in 1958, the output of chromite has been at a low level. According to statistics, the output of chromite in 1958 was 16000 tons, and the annual output of chromite has been hovering around 10000 tons since then (Figure 4). After 1995, the annual output ranges from 15 to 200,000 tons, and the annual output of 200/kloc-0 is 65,438.
Figure 4 1990-2009 Production and Consumption of Chromite in China
Third, the domestic and international consumption situation
(I) World consumption of chromite At present, 94.5% of the world consumption of chromite is used in metallurgical industry, 2% in chemical industry, 0.7% in refractory industry and 2.8% in foundry industry (Table 2). South Africa, the United States, Western Europe, Japan, China, CIS and other countries and regions are the main consumers of chromite.
Table 2 Consumption and composition of chromite in the world in recent years
Source: ICDA, 2009 statistical bulletin.
According to the statistics of AISSF, in 2009, the global crude steel output of stainless steel and heat-resistant steel was about 24.578 million tons (Table 3), a year-on-year decrease of 6.5438+0.335 million tons, or 5.2%. Four regions in the world (Western Europe, Africa, Central and Eastern Europe and America) reduced production, and only China's crude stainless steel output increased by 19.9% year-on-year, reaching 8.805 million tons.
According to the data of British Commodity Research Institute (CRU), the world consumption of high-carbon ferrochromium in 2009 was 6.63 million tons, down 2.2% year-on-year, and the supply gap reached 846,000 tons, accounting for 12.8% of the consumption, while the global market inventory reached1/72,000 tons (Table 4).
Table 3 Statistics of crude steel output of stainless steel and heat-resistant steel in the world in recent years
Table 4 Supply and demand balance of world high-carbon ferrochromium market in the second quarter of 2008 20 10.
Source: CRU
According to the data of Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the output of stainless steel in Japan in 2009 was 2.346 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%. The consumption of ferrochrome is 574,000 tons (543,000 tons of high-carbon ferrochrome and 3 1.000 tons of low-carbon ferrochrome).
(B) the consumption of chromite in China.
The consumption structure of chromite in China is as follows: 90% chromite is used for smelting stainless steel in metallurgical industry, and others are used for manufacturing refractories, chemical products and non-ferrous metal alloys. During the period from1990 to 2009, China consumed 44.8 million tons of chromite (with an average annual consumption of 2.24 million tons), while the domestic annual output was only about 200,000 tons.
Because China's ferrochrome production can only meet 50% ~ 60% of domestic demand, stainless steel manufacturers have to increase imports. Therefore, whether China can meet the demand for ferrochromium in the stainless steel industry in the next few years depends largely on the international prices and market supply of ferrochromium and ferrochromium, as well as the domestic sales prices of ferrosilicon, ferromanganese and ferrochromium.
In 2009, the apparent consumption of high-carbon ferrochromium in China was about 410.9 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of/kloc-0 1.04.3% (Table 5).
Table 5 Production and consumption of high-carbon ferrochromium in China from 2000 to 2009
Source: China Ferroalloy Industry Association; Beijing antaike information development co., ltd
Four. Domestic and international trade situation
(A) the international chromite trade situation
The world trade of chrome ore products is mainly based on ferrochromium alloy. The main exporting countries of chromite in the world are South Africa, Kazakhstan, India, Zimbabwe, Philippines, Vietnam and so on. The main importers are Russian, Japanese, China and Sweden (Table 6). The world's main exporters of ferrochromium are South Africa, Kazakhstan, India, Zimbabwe and Russia. The main importing countries and regions are the United States, Japan and Western Europe. According to the data of ICDA, the import trade volume of chromite in the world in 2008 was 1.2 1.5 million tons.
Table 6 Trade situation of major chromite importers in the world in recent years
Source: ICDA, 2009 statistical bulletin.
In 2008, South Africa exported 4 109000 tons of chromite (Table 7), including 300 10000 tons to China (accounting for 73% of South Africa's total exports), 59000 tons to Germany and 43000 tons to the United States. In the past 20 years, the export volume of chromite in South Africa has been declining (from 34% in 1987 to less than 10% in 2007), because more chromite minerals come from South Africa, which has always been the largest country in the world.
According to ICDA data, in 2008, the world's export volume of ferrochromium alloy was 545 1 10,000 tons, of which South Africa exported 2.972 million tons (accounting for 54.5% of the world's total exports), Kazakhstan exported 1.28 million tons (accounting for 23.5%), Iran exported 382,000 tons (accounting for 7%) and Zimbabwe exported 60,000 tons. The Netherlands exported109,000 tons (2%), Russia exported108,000 tons (2%), Turkey exported 80,000 tons (1.5%), Finland exported 82,000 tons (1.5%) and Sweden exported 72,000 tons.
In 2009, Turkey exported 65,438+0,765,438+0,000 tons of chromite, which was 5.3% lower than that in 2008. In 2009, China imported 1.49 million tons of chrome ore from Turkey, accounting for 8,765,438+0% of its total export, while in 2008 the proportion was 59%.
Table 7 South Africa's exports of chromite and ferrochrome from 2000 to 2008
Source: DME, Mineral Economics.
(II) Domestic import and export trade of ferrochromium China has become a net importer of ferrochromium since 2002. In recent years, with the substantial increase of stainless steel production, the import of ferrochromium has doubled. From June 5438+1 October1day, 2008, China imposed or increased export tariffs on ferroalloy and other "two high-tech and one capital" products, in which the export tariff on ferrochrome was adjusted from 15% to 20%; Ferroalloy products are exported under an export licensing system. Due to the government's continuous macro-control of ferroalloys and other energy-intensive products, China ferroalloys in 2008
Exports were 225,000 tons, down 48.6% year-on-year. In 2009, the output of high-carbon ferrochromium in China was 2.222 million tons, the net import was 1.97 1.000 tons, and the apparent consumption of high-carbon ferrochromium in China was 4 1.930 tons, accounting for 63.2% of the total consumption of ferrochromium in the world. In 2009, China imported ferrochrome mainly from South Africa (956,000 tons, accounting for 44.2%), Kazakhstan (625,000 tons, accounting for 28.9%) and India (337,000 tons, accounting for 337%).
15.6%), the total import from these countries was1910.8 million tons, accounting for 88.7% of the total import in that year. In 2009, China imported 6.76 million tons of chromite (Figure 5; Table 8), the value is 13 1 100 million USD, decreasing by 1.2% and 51.8% respectively; The dependence on imports is 97. 1%. Imports mainly came from South Africa, Turkey, Oman and India, accounting for more than 67% of the total chromite imports in that year, and the average price was 193.8 USD/ton, down 5 1.3% year-on-year.
Figure 5 China chromite import volume in 2009 1990
Table 8 Imports of chromite and ferrochrome in China from 2000 to 2009
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China Customs Statistical Yearbook, 2003 ~ 2008; General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Monthly Report of Customs Statistics, August+02, 2009.
20101~ July, China imported 5 13 10000 tons of chromite, with a value of14.2 million USD, with an average price of 276.4 USD/ton, which was 42.6% higher than the average price in 2009. The net import of ferrochromium was 952,000 tons, with a value of US$ 65.438+RMB 600 million, with an average price of US$ 65.438+US$ 009.4/ton. In Table 8, the ratio of the average import unit price of ferrochrome to ore is decreasing year by year. Considering the serious environmental pollution of ferrochrome smelting, the import of ferrochrome alloy should be increased and the import scale of ore should be gradually reduced.
Five, chromite price trend analysis
In the second half of 2008, with the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global stainless steel market entered a continuous downturn and the demand was weak; In 2009, the price trend of chromite was basically consistent with that of commodities. It operated in the low-priced area in the first quarter, and then gradually picked up. The average import price of China in that year was 193.8 USD/ton, down 5 1.2% year-on-year. From June 2009 10 to April 20 10, the spot price of chromite rose month by month (Table 9).
Table 9 Spot price data of chromite from April 20, 2008 to April 20, 200810 Unit: USD/ton.
Conclusion of intransitive verbs
Judging from the market supply and demand of chromite in the world, the overall situation is that supply exceeds demand. The chromite resources in the world are highly concentrated in South Africa and Kazakhstan. In 2009, the production and consumption of chromite in the world were basically balanced. The world trade of chromite products is dominated by ferrochrome alloy, and the trade scale of raw ore is basically maintained at about 30% of the output of that year.
Chromite is one of the scarce minerals in China, and it is a foregone conclusion that more than 90% of domestic consumption demand depends on the international market. In 2009, China imported 6.76 million tons of chromite, a decrease of 65,438 0.2% compared with 2008, and its import dependence reached 97%. Affected by the global financial crisis, the price of chromite in the international market has fallen sharply. The average import price of chromite in China is 193.8 USD/ton, which is 5 1.2% lower than that in 2008.
(Hu)