The influencing factors are soybean supply, soybean consumption, soybean-related commodity prices (substitutes and follow-up products), soybean international market prices and storage and transportation costs.

(1) Soybean supply situation

The global soybean harvest is divided into two periods in the northern and southern hemispheres. The soybean harvest time in South America (Brazil and Argentina) is from March to May every year, while the soybean harvest time in the United States and China in the northern hemisphere is from 9 to 65438+10. So there is a centralized supply of soybeans once every six months.

The United States is the largest soybean supplier in the world, and the change of its output has a great influence on the world soybean market. China is one of the largest importers in the international soybean market. The import volume and import price of genetically modified soybeans directly affect the domestic soybean supply market, thus affecting the price of non-genetically modified soybeans. Therefore, soybean import volume and import price have great influence on soybean price in domestic market.

(2) Soybean consumption

The main soybean importing countries are the European Union, China, Japan and Southeast Asian countries. The soybean imports of the European Union and Japan are relatively stable, while those of China and Southeast Asian countries change greatly.

During the period of 1997, the financial crisis occurred in Asia, and the soybean imports of Southeast Asian countries fell sharply, which led to the decline of soybean prices in the international market. Soybean consumption is relatively stable and has a weak impact on the price. After soybean is squeezed, the market demand of soybean oil and soybean meal products is uncertain and there are many influencing factors. The urgent demand of soybean changes greatly, which has a great influence on the price.

(3) the prices of related commodities

1, alternative price

As food, soybean substitutes include peas, mung beans and kidney beans. As oilseeds, soybean substitutes include rapeseed, cottonseed, sunflower seeds and peanuts. Changes in the output, price and consumption of these substitutes also have an indirect impact on soybean prices.

2. Follow-up products

The price of soybean is directly related to its subsequent products, soybean oil and soybean meal. Changes in the demand for these two products will directly lead to changes in the demand for soybeans, thus affecting the price of non-GM soybeans.

(4) the international market price of soybean.

China's soybean imports account for a large proportion of the world's soybean trade, and the soybean prices in the international market and domestic soybean prices influence each other.

The increase in international market prices will have an impact on domestic soybean imports and domestic soybean supply, and then on domestic demand for non-GM soybeans, which will lead to an increase in domestic prices of non-GM soybeans. At the same time, the increase of soybean price in the international market will have an impact on people's psychology. It is expected that domestic soybean prices may rise, and futures prices may also rise.

(5) Storage and transportation costs

Transportation cost has obvious influence on soybean price. When imported soybeans account for more than 70% of the total domestic consumption, the international shipping price that directly affects the price change of imported soybeans will directly affect the price change of domestic yellow soybeans. At the same time, the lack of domestic regional transportation capacity will also drive up transportation costs and indirectly stimulate soybean prices.

Therefore, factors such as transportation shortage and crude oil price related to freight have become indirect factors affecting soybean prices.