Or the eighth downward adjustment this year.
After the last round of domestic retail price limit of refined oil products moved up, the current round of oil prices may be lowered again.
Susan Wang, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that since the current pricing cycle, the international oil price has fluctuated widely, and the average price has dropped from the previous cycle. Although the decline in the US dollar index and the warming geopolitical situation boosted oil prices, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the global economic recession, high oil prices and epidemics all brought heavy pressure on oil consumption.
Affected by the trend of crude oil, the change rate of this round turned from positive to negative. According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day of 165438+ 10/8, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 90.4 USD/barrel, with a change rate of-1.85%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be lowered by1. According to the principle of "ten working days", the current price adjustment window is 10/65438+265438+10 at 24: 00. The price adjustment is only 1 working day, so there is little suspense in this downward adjustment. It is estimated that the downward adjustment will be around 130- 140 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a price increase of about 0. 1-0. 12 yuan.
According to Zhuo Chuang information model, as of the close of 1017, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil on the ninth working day is-1.95%, and it is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be lowered by 100 yuan/ton, which is converted into price increase, 92# gasoline and 0.
It is worth noting that this retail price limit adjustment of refined oil products will be the eighth downward adjustment this year. After the implementation of the downward adjustment policy, consumers' travel costs will be reduced to a certain extent. Let's take a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example. It will cost about 4 yuan less than before to fill a box of 92 # gasoline.
Yang Xia, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang refined oil products, believes that the international crude oil market has been fluctuating since this cycle. The market difference lies in demand expectation: the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries shows that demand expectation is lowered, and the bearish market is dominant; However, IEA is relatively optimistic and raises demand expectations. In this context, the international oil market fluctuates greatly. Affected by this, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil turned from positive to negative, and it is more likely that the retail price limit of refined oil will be lowered this round.
Short-term pressure on refined oil market
In the second half of this year, international oil prices fell deeply. However, with OPEC+165438+ reducing production by 2 million barrels per day from 10, and Russian oil being subject to maritime sanctions from February 65438+, the crude oil market stepped on the falling brake disc, thus supporting the oil price above $80/barrel.
Recently, the wholesale market of refined oil products, gasoline and diesel prices are under pressure, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is general.
Susan Wang analyzed that the expectation of lowering the retail price will gradually appear, and this news points to bad news. In terms of gasoline, domestic epidemics are repeated from time to time. Although the prevention and control measures are further optimized, the overall demand performance is not good. In addition, the price of main gasoline in some areas has been high in the early stage, and it has been moderately adjusted in the near future, and the sales policy is very flexible and loose.
In terms of diesel, supported by the shopping festival, the transportation industry is highly active, outdoor engineering projects are still in the stage of grabbing orders, and the demand side still has support. However, with the further increase of diesel production and the influence of diesel being included in the management policy of hazardous chemicals, some social resources are actively sold, and the supply of diesel has increased. Although the wholesale price of diesel oil is still limited, the direct selling price is gradually loosened, and sales modes such as tying and restricted sales are cancelled one after another. The downstream wait-and-see mentality is aggravated, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is very light.
Looking at the market outlook, the retail price will be lowered soon, and crude oil will remain volatile in the short term, so it may be difficult to find support in the news. The main and local refineries started smoothly, and the supply side fluctuated little. However, as the temperature drops, the terminal consumption of diesel oil may gradually subside, and the shortage of domestic resources is expected to be further alleviated. As the retail price is lowered and realized, the diesel price will fall back, and some units are actively rushing to rise, and the possibility of falling below the price limit is not ruled out.
In terms of gasoline, the influence of optimized measures for epidemic prevention and control is further manifested, and the radius and frequency of private car trips may gradually increase, which has certain support for gasoline demand. At present, the price of gasoline on the market is quite different. It is expected that the decline of low-priced resources will be relatively limited in the later period, and the high price will gradually approach the market.
Regarding the trend of international crude oil prices, nanhua futures believes that economic expectations are pessimistic in the context of the Fed's interest rate hike. Downward demand, insufficient excess capacity under+control, and risk premium superposition caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict. Before the end of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike, there is limited room above oil prices. Due to insufficient marginal supply, oil prices will rise sharply in stages and remain wide as a whole.
Founder Mid-term Futures believes that as inflation falls, the Fed's interest rate hike may slow down, leading to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, supporting crude oil and other commodities. However, the downward pressure on the global economy is still there, and oil consumption will continue to be impacted. Under the supply contraction caused by OPEC+production control and Russian sanctions, the supply and demand of crude oil maintained a tight balance, and the overall fluctuation range was limited. In the short term, the appreciation of RMB has obviously suppressed the formation of SC crude oil, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term.
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