Energy is a business, and OPEC also wants to make money. Since the Fed took the lead in raising interest rates, the world
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, consumption shrank, energy demand fell and prices fell. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the insured price. Now that the global economy is in a downward cycle, we have fallen into an economic crisis. The biggest weapon of energy exporting countries is energy.
Otherwise, these countries will be harvested by the United States. At present, the global currency dollar is the only one, and the latest indicators of the economic winter in energy countries follow closely.
Second, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cuts crude oil production, so the United States should be like.
In this case, Europe was sacrificed by hook or by crook, and the global economy entered a critical crossroads. The release of water from the United States and Europe doomed this disaster, especially the uncontrolled release of water from the United States, which laid a curse on the global economy. The source of global inflation is the release of water.
In other words, the source of this global crisis is similar to that of 2008, and the chief culprit is American greed.
Uncontrolled water discharge belongs to carpe diem, and the pain has not disappeared, but has been delayed. Past experience tells people that any so-called change
It just shifts the contradiction, and the contradiction does not disappear, but will come in different modes.
The trip to the Middle East was considered a failure by the American media themselves. When they met Salman, they didn't mention the murder of Kashuqi reporter, and they were criticized by the United States for not paying enough attention to human rights. Later, they said that they mentioned it in the talks. I wonder if they mentioned it. However, Saudi Arabia agreed to increase
The output is true, but it was even caught by the American media, because it was not enough to increase the output by 65,438+10,000 barrels.
Theoretically, Saudi Arabia should give some face in exchange for the acquiescence of Salman's regime transfer.
Third, the deal is probably not 654.38 million+barrels claimed by Saudi Arabia, but both sides agree that Saudi Arabia should control the oil price at a price that both sides think is appropriate.
Near the grid.
So what is the price? The cost of Russian crude oil is about $44, including pipeline maintenance and other expenses, which is about $50.
Dollars. Most of the crude oil exported by Russia is a long-term cooperative price, that is, the futures price is about 30% off. In this way, when calculating the international crude oil price,
When the price is below $65, Russian crude oil exports are unprofitable. ?
Fourthly, shale oil production has been increasing. As the background of traditional energy industry, it is certain to maintain enough shale oil industry.
Profit, then the construction transaction with Saudi Arabia is probably not 70, but about 80 dollars. If the crude oil reaches $63, it will immediately penetrate the profit margin of shale oil, which is unacceptable to the shale oil industry.
In order to increase the output of shale oil enterprises at all costs, it is necessary to maintain the profit of shale oil industry, otherwise it will break through the formation of shale oil.
Ben, the decline in shale oil production is equal to the decrease in crude oil production.
Therefore, after the trip to the Middle East, the oil price fell rapidly, and now it is maintained at $80. Saudi Arabia jumped out to cut crude oil production, probably.
The rate has been decided by both parties, and it really has nothing to do with American pills or Russian pills.
Reducing production is definitely bad for the economy. However, if production cuts really lead to high oil prices, then the resulting economic contraction should be
This is just a small snowflake in the global economic winter. Economy often appears in the mainstream media of big countries for other reasons. The president of this big country seems to have Alzheimer's disease. There is a big problem. That's enough. On the issue of truly becoming an economic killer, the whole world has not joined forces to solve it together, so the retribution is certain.
At present, OPEC's reduction of crude oil production has embarrassed other countries, regardless of the frost on others' tiles. If this is the case,
It's really irreversible for the time being, so I hope China can have good relations with resource-rich countries. And help some small countries as much as possible.
As for developed countries, there is no need to help. First, people don't need it. Blood is thick. Even if we resell some resources to them at a high price, they will pay.
I can afford it. Secondly, if I really help, I can't. People are used to living a good life, and they are all uncles.
As far as the present situation is concerned, I think it is impossible to say that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is deliberately disgusting the United States.
We should know that fossil energy is no longer popular in the investment community, and the news that it can't be invested is there every day. Had it not been for the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
No one is asking them to expand production, so they can make some money now, and it is best not to cut production if they can.
However, the signal of global economic recession is very clear. If we don't cut production now, there may be overcapacity in 2023, and oil prices are at
There may be a plunge.
It may even break out like 20 years later, and there will be negative oil prices.
The sharp drop in oil prices is not good for anyone, but for oil-producing countries, it marks the further improvement of production costs and profit margins.
Further narrowing, life will be even worse.
Therefore, from the perspective of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, we would rather have higher oil prices than overcapacity, so it is necessary to start reducing production now.
What we really need to consider is whether the amount of 2 million barrels is too large. I find it hard to say.
Considering that the Beixi pipeline has just been bombed and the EU and Russia have fallen out, the consumption in the euro zone will definitely drop sharply in 2023.
Put it down.