Analysts believe that the risk aversion caused by the European debt crisis and economic recession has become an eternal "pain" in investors' hearts. The first two rounds of quantitative easing in the United States did not work well, and the poor economic recovery triggered inflation, which was even denounced as "fighting chicken blood". Under the debt, the United States was forced to consider a new easing policy. Coupled with other external factors, it is reasonable that the price of gold still "can't fall" under the huge callback pressure after the skyrocketing. On the spot gold Thursday (August 18), the gold price continued to hover at a high level, and now it is stable above 1790 USD/oz. SPDR Gold Trust Company, the world's largest gold listed and traded fund, said that as of the early morning of August 18, its gold holdings increased by 9.08 tons, and it is currently maintained at the level of 127 1.98 tons.
4 hours K-line analysis:
Technically, the gold price line 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour is in a state of top deviation. Four hours later, the daily and weekly lines are still overbought, but it remains to be seen whether the gold price can make up for the gap last Monday. At present, the MACD of the 4-hour line runs above the 0-axis, and the medium and short-term moving average groups and the medium and long-term moving average groups diverge upward. RSI indicator 64, stochastic indicator 78, gold price runs near the upper rail to the middle rail of Brin rail. Today's long and short watershed 1787, upper resistance 1793, 1797, 1803, lower support 178 1, 1777,/kloc-0. Analysts believe that unless the gold price directly breaks through the previous high of 18 15 and continues to rise, a correction will be inevitable. Analysts believe that at present, the high-risk accumulation and shock characteristics of gold prices lead to more interval operations, especially against heavy positions continuing to chase more. Analysts suggest that today, conservative investors can wait and see, and radical investors can consider doing more near the gold price 1780 support, with the target above 1800, or operating in the interval between 1770 and 18 15, so as to achieve the goal.
(Figure) The four-hour chart ends at 1 18 at 0:30 a.m. Beijing time on August 18.
International trend
The rest of this week will be a "major event vacuum period" until next Friday. As early as August 9th, the Federal Reserve drastically lowered its economic growth forecast in the United States at its regular policy meeting, and decided to keep the target interest rate of the federal funds at a historical low of 0-0.25% for at least 20 13 years. Overseas analysts believe that the United States may also become a prisoner of ultra-loose monetary policy. Considering the cost of debt repayment, it will not be able to support a high degree of interest rate normalization. If so, the prospect of the dollar may become more and more dangerous as time goes by. Investors are worried that the U.S. government will face increasing debt pressure and short-term growth resistance of the U.S. economy, and the future U.S. debt crisis may turn into a dollar crisis. In order to avoid a double-dip recession, the Fed may have to implement QE3 to stimulate the US economy, which is definitely not good news for the US dollar. Philadelphia Fed President Prosso said on Wednesday that the Fed's policy of maintaining near-zero interest rates for two years was too hasty, and the Fed may not have to raise interest rates significantly before the middle of 20 13. Affected by this remark, spot gold once fell to 1780 USD/oz.
On Wednesday (17), Ross Norman, an analyst with SharpsPixley, an overseas institution, said that the price of gold was in an overbought area in terms of technical graphics. Norman pointed out that "the price of gold has deviated from its 30-week trend line (the trend line formed by connecting the 30-week lows) by more than 20%. This situation has only happened three times since 2007, and the last two times were in March 2008 and February 2009, and then they all fell sharply. On Wednesday, the price of gold deviated from its 30-week trend line by 2 1%. From the weekly chart, the price of gold is currently outside the upper rail of the 20 th Bollinger Band, indicating that gold is technically overbought. " Norman warned, "There are indications that the rise of gold prices may soon come to a standstill."
Affected by the expected intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), many investors lifted their long positions in the Swiss franc, and the shrinking pool of safe-haven assets led to more funds pouring into gold. However, due to the serious overbought in the gold market, we need to be alert to the risk of callback in the short term. Leo Larkin, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, said that gold may drop sharply to 1450 to 1550 USD/oz in the coming months.
Analysts remind: light warehouse operation, strict stop-loss discipline
Disclaimer: The above comments only represent the analyst's personal views and do not constitute any trading suggestions. Customers should use their own judgment when buying and selling, and bear any gains and risks arising from buying and selling.