The end of every year1February is the peak season for peanut consumption, but this year the price of peanuts has fallen instead of rising.
In case of cold, the price of eggs plummeted, and the wholesale price of eggs generally fell below that of 5 yuan.
Domestic gasoline prices have experienced a "three-day losing streak" and will once again enter a skyrocketing market.
Pig prices turn around
According to the pig price system, the price of live pigs turned around in the last two days, and then the average price of live pigs once fell to 8.5 yuan, which means that half of the farmers are losing money.
Fortunately, the pig price has turned around in the last two days, which has prompted the pig price to turn around. The author believes that there are mainly the following logics:
1, after the pig price fell to the cost line, some farmers faced losses, and the breeding end refused to recognize the price and refused to sell it.
2. Near the end of the year, the annual slaughter task of the group pig farm was completed one after another, and the slaughter rate slowed down.
3. The price of pork decreased with the decrease of pig price, and the consumption recovered obviously after the price reduction of pork.
4. Slaughtering enterprises enter the slaughter season at the end of the year, with high operating rate and large demand for live pigs.
Big pigs consume a lot, and there is not much left in the market.
Although the price of pigs has turned around and risen, it does not mean that the state of oversupply of pigs has changed. It does consume a part of big fat, but there is still stock in the market. With the passage of time, the time left for these farmers is getting shorter and shorter, and the follow-up will inevitably be concentrated.
In terms of consumption, it is still in the painful period of the epidemic, and many places have not yet reached the peak of infection. Food and beverage consumption is difficult to recover obviously in a short time. Students' holiday and factory shutdown affected the centralized purchase of pork.
Therefore, the author believes that this wave of pig price correction is the best time for farmers to sell pigs.
Peanut season is not prosperous.
/kloc-The end of 0/2 is the peak season of peanut consumption every year, and this year's peanuts are still in the background of expected production reduction. The supply of peanuts should be tight, and the price should rise, but the market price will not rise, and the futures and spot prices will fall to some extent.
The logic of this "abnormal" phenomenon is as follows:
1. The pressure of epidemic prevention and control has increased in the last month, affecting the demand for terminal edible peanuts. According to agency statistics, this year's peanut consumption decreased by 30% compared with the same period of last year, and edible peanuts accounted for about 40% of peanut consumption in China. After the demand for edible peanuts weakened, the price of peanuts was under pressure.
2. In the early stage, due to the increase of soybean meal price, peanut meal was at a high level, and the crushing profit of oil plants was high, which supported the peanut price. Recently, with the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, the price of soybean meal has fallen sharply, which has affected the price of peanut meal, and the profit of crushing mill has decreased, which has led to the lower price of peanuts in oil plants.
3. The number of peanuts imported from Hong Kong has increased.
4. The passenger flow in the catering industry has not fully recovered, the short-term infection tide will not stop, and the sales volume of peanut oil is less than expected.
Affected by the weather, the domestic peanut production is expected to decrease this year, and there are two main factors that affect the domestic peanut price. On the one hand, it is the amount of peanuts imported by Hong Kong from Africa, and on the other hand, it is the demand for peanuts. According to agency statistics, peanuts imported from Africa will arrive in Hong Kong one after another after the year, which will alleviate the tight supply of peanuts in China. Considering that the demand for peanuts is difficult to recover in a short time, the price of peanuts is likely to fall further.
Eggs will fall when they are cold.
In recent days, egg prices have been falling continuously. As of press time, the price of red egg cartons in Henan Province has dropped to 4.7-5. 1 yuan, the specifications of scattered red egg baskets in Shandong Province have dropped to 4.55-4.9 yuan, and the specifications of scattered red egg baskets in Jiangsu Province have dropped to 4.78-5.03 yuan.
On the supply side, the price of eliminated chickens continued to be low in the last week, indicating that the speed of eliminating chickens at the breeding end has accelerated. At present, the number of newly opened laying hens in August only increased slightly compared with last month. Considering the above two points, the overall production capacity of laying hens is declining at present, so why is the price of eggs still falling? Because "cold" consumption is sluggish, the logic that affects egg consumption is mainly as follows:
1. Recently, various places have entered the infection upsurge one after another, the number of infected people has been increasing, and the overall consumption of eggs has been sluggish.
2. Fewer people go out to eat, and tourism and catering are basically at a standstill.
3. The inventory that most residents hoarded before staying at home for consumption.
But after entering 65438+ 10, the price of eggs is likely to rise again. First of all, 65438+ 10 has a good consumption during the Spring Festival, and Shang Chao and traders at all levels have stock demand.
Secondly, the impact of the recent elimination of chickens on the subsequent supply of eggs will also be reflected one after another.
Finally, with the end of the peak period of epidemic infection, catering consumption demand and industrial processing demand will also be restored one after another.
Oil prices will rise sharply.
It has been several days since we entered a new oil price adjustment cycle. As international oil prices continue to rise, oil prices are likely to rise sharply in 2023.
As of press time, Brent crude oil rose by 2.89 dollars compared with the previous day, and the price rose to 84.56 dollars/barrel. WTI US crude oil increased by $65,438+$0.96 compared with the previous day, and the price rose to $79.45/barrel.
Affected by the sharp rise in international oil prices, experts predict that China's oil prices will skyrocket by 65,438 200 yuan at 24: 00 on October 3rd, equivalent to an increase of 0. 15-0. 18 yuan per liter, which is much greater than the adjustment range of 50 yuan/ton.
Although there has been a lot of bad news about oil prices in the market recently, for example, the Russian side said that the parties to the conflict would negotiate sooner or later and never refused to negotiate.
For another example, due to concerns about interest rates and recession, the US stock market has fallen sharply, and the slowdown in global economic and trade growth has intensified concerns about the economic outlook. The probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in February next year is 67%.
However, international oil prices are still rising. On the one hand, it may be related to the upward adjustment after the excessive decline in oil prices. On the other hand, it is related to the bullish oil price in the market. For example, the labor market in the United States is still tense, and Putin prohibits Russian gas from doing business with companies or individuals in "unfriendly countries", which are all beneficial to oil prices.
At present, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is basically around 7.6 yuan, and that of No.95 gasoline is basically around 8 yuan. If the price of No.92 gasoline rises by 200 yuan/ton, it will rise to about 7.75 yuan, and the price of No.95 gasoline will rise to about 8. 15 yuan.
The next oil price adjustment time is 65438+10.3, and it is suggested that the owner fill up the fuel tank in advance before this.