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Due to the design of supervision, industry contracts and information release rules, there are many factors that affect the price of crude oil in the United States. Output, inventory, dollar index, price control of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, political situation, and major economic data may all affect the price fluctuation. Weekly API/EIA inventory report, drilling report and initial unemployment report; Small non-agricultural and large non-agricultural monthly reports, three major crude oil institutions monthly reports; Semiannual meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; Eight Fed meetings on interest rates a year; Events and data such as supply interruption that will happen at any time in risk areas will generally cause more than three times of short-term fluctuation space, and the fluctuation is the highest in the world.
The news with the highest frequency and large fluctuation is the weekly EIA inventory data, which we call EIA trading day.
Today is another EIA trading day, how to grasp the gains of more than twice?
First, in general, don't bet on real-time market.
The so-called real-time market is to open a position before the release of EIA, and then hope that the direction is the same and get several times of huge profits. Because in practice, even if the direction is wrong, it may be because the short-term back test touches the investor's stop loss.
Second, don't guess how long it is.
The long-term similarity between API and EIA reaches 87%, but it has no guiding role for investors to decide how long and short the current EIA data is, because there may be a 23% probability of dissimilarity today. Other methods of guessing the length, such as the prediction of big banks, media surveys, or the inventory data of Cushing ahead of Gencape, are often far from the actual value. So EIA is not accurate, so it is unpredictable. Don't test it.
Third, make a safety mat first.
The advantage of EIA trading day is that the liquidity of that day will be better than usual. In the short term, volatility and liquidity will increase. If short-term take profit and strict stop loss can be well grasped, it is easy to stack multiple profits through +8 or so after the trading frequency increases. If we can achieve +30 points, we generally think that the safety mat has been built.
Fourth, the safety mat is built and real-time quotation is made.
As I said before, we generally don't do real-time quotes, so what's the special case? That is, when making a safety cushion, the regular stop loss of T+0 traders is around-10, and when the EIA volatility rises, it is generally around -20. If you add 30 points of space in the safety mat, you can make an exposure of -50 points, which can generally resist short-term reverse backtesting and be realized. If the direction measurement is correct, you can hold a position.
Fifth, generally follow the trend after the data is released.
After the data is released, it is more or less clear at a glance, and you can follow the trend without hesitation. Generally, there will be short-term profits. However, the characteristic of EIA data is that the price may digest the favorable or unfavorable factors of EIA in a short time after the release of the expected data, so there is a back test, so we should wait patiently for the direction before entering the market after adjustment.
Schwab Yingtai 24-hour global trading center specializes in foreign futures brokerage and investment services. Real compliance, based on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange group member brokerage channels.