The price of pigs has broken the 30 yuan/Jin mark at the same time last month, and a Jin of pigs has shrunk by more than 2 times. As a result, the pork market has fallen sharply. At present, the average wholesale price of pork in the wholesale market has fallen below the 10 yuan mark, and the market trend has almost reached the historical low in June and July last year.
On the other hand, because of the fluctuation of international food prices, the domestic prices of wheat, corn and soybean meal keep breaking through new highs, especially after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the food crisis is imminent.
Worried that the Black Sea port is out of service, worried that other countries will restrict food in order to reduce food safely, the market anxiety is frequent, which leads to the soaring global food prices.
At present, wheat has exceeded a new high of 14, the average price of corn has soared to 1.5 yuan/kg, and soybean meal has risen to 5,000 yuan. The cost of ordinary pig breeding has reached 7~8 yuan/kg, and the high-standard and high-safety farms have even reached 8~9 yuan/kg, while the average price of pigs is only 5~6 yuan/kg. That is to say, according to the current breeding cost,
At present, the price of grain is still rising, and the loss of live pigs is still expanding. However, the good news is that with the emergence of the first-level early warning interval of pig price decline, the state has issued a plan to temporarily store and support the market. Of course, the first batch of 40,000 tons of pork did not play much role, and the second batch of pork storage and storage plan was launched soon. Coupled with the increase in losses, farmers' reluctance to sell increased, and the pig price finally ushered in March 10 to 14.
However, the market rebound only lasted for two days, and the signs of a shock callback were once again highlighted.
According to the data released by the pig price system, domestic pig prices are mixed, with foreign three yuan 12. 15 yuan/kg leading the southern market, but the pig prices in the north of the mainstream producing areas have shown signs of falling.
Among them, the northeast and southwest regions stabilized sideways, and the mainstream price was 5.5~6. 1 yuan/kg. Central China and North China rebounded slightly, rising by 0.0 1~0.05 yuan/kg in a single day, and the slaughterhouse quoted 5.8~6.3 yuan/kg. Pig prices in South China and East China fluctuated, falling by 0.65438 in a single day.
At present, the favorable storage and storage of pork is still continuing, and the mentality of resisting price and reluctant to sell at the breeding end is also strengthening. The factors that lead to the rebound of pig prices still exist. Why has the price of pork dropped again? Private thoughts are related to the following factors:
First, the current increase in pig prices is important for secondary storage. Although the number of purchasing and storage is limited, there is still some leverage, but it is only leverage. It is too difficult to push up the pig price further.
On the one hand, the quantity of pork storage is limited, and the corresponding massive domestic pork supply can be described as a drop in the bucket.
On the other hand, because the market is bearish on the afternoon pig market, the cost is weak and the consequences of purchasing and storing are not obvious. In the end, the second batch of 38,000 tons was sold only 22,000 tons, and 6,543,800 tons of pork was auctioned.
Second, the drop in pig prices and the rise in feed have brought about double pressures, which are unbearable not only for individual retail investors, but also for listed pig enterprises in a large range.
Third, slaughter enterprises and downstream traders are worried about the market outlook.
At present, it has entered the off-season, pork consumption has not been significantly boosted, and pig production capacity is still increasing. In June, the number of fertile sows in 5438+ 10 was still at a high level. According to the six-month production cycle of sows, the corresponding supply of live pigs in the second quarter of this year is on the high side, which is particularly obvious. At present, the pig production capacity is not obvious.
Some pig enterprises are even filling the bottom to expand production capacity.
The fundamentals of market supply and demand have not improved, and there are more surplus commodities in the wholesale market. The enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises and downstream traders to buy pigs has generally declined, the market sentiment has become stronger, and the price of pigs has naturally increased without foundation.
Therefore, no matter from the perspective of expenditure or pork supply, it is unlikely that the pig price will rebound this round. After short-term market fluctuations, there is still the risk of re-entering the downtrend channel.
In addition, it should be noted that because the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still fermenting, the factors of global food price rise and fluctuation still exist.
Earlier, the United States announced a speculative statement on the grain market, claiming that the bumper wheat harvest in Australia and the increase in Indian wheat exports would ease the decline of Russian grain exports in the Black Sea, and international wheat futures plummeted in the short term.
However, in terms of scope, the wheat exports of Australia and India are not enough to offset the wheat export gap of Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine is a big corn exporter. In the future, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will greatly affect Ukraine's corn exports and bring many constant factors to the rise of food prices.
In addition, due to the sharp rise in global energy and chemical industry, farmers' planting costs continue to increase, and their belief in price resistance is strong. In addition, the price of new grain corn may continue to be high in the early stage of listing, which also means that feed prices still have certain opportunities to rise.