On Thursday, despite the support of the SSE 50 Index, the Shenzhen-Shanghai A-share market continued to show a downward trend due to the decline of the overall market varieties and the increase of stocks with daily limit. On the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,990.69 points, down -36.26 points, and closed below 3,000 points. Judging from the situation of the Shanghai Composite Index, from 3000 to 3 100, a dense chip was formed in the area of 100. In recent 10 trading days, only the Shanghai stock market has formed a chip accumulation of about 10 trillion in a short time. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3,000 points, indicating that the above-mentioned areas have formed obvious pressure resistance zones, which are in line with market conditions.

For today's market to break through 3000 points, we think it is the comprehensive influence of the following factors:

1, technical factors

After the Spring Festival, the influence of policies such as Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and Growth Enterprise Market continued to rise. However, after entering this week, its technical indicators, especially the weekly technical indicators, continued to be purified at a high level, and this week entered the fifth week of purification. In addition, the GEM stock index hit a high point, but the technical indicators were weak, forming a top deviation. In the random technical indicators, KDJ and others appeared overbought of 100, so the adjustment of technical factors promoted obviously. Moreover, in this round of rise, there are many gaps in the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market, so the impact of the gap callback also has a certain adjustment impact.

Tracking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index futures shows that the MACD trend of its contract technical indicators appeared dead fork on Tuesday, which appeared in the high-end area of technical indicators. Due to the strong technical guiding significance of MACD index and the leading role of stock index futures, the high position is dead for the first time at this stage, which makes the signal that triggers market adjustment more obvious and difficult to change without substantive factors.

2. The technical indicators of stock index futures are dead.

Figure 1: Operation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Contract IF 1903

Note: Drawing and text research based on market data of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

3. Poor macroeconomic data.

He Xin tracked macroeconomic indicators and found that the PMI index of 1 in February this year was still below the threshold, indicating weakness. At the same time, the economic data of1-February released by the Bureau of Statistics today shows that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year in1-February, with an estimated 5.6% and a previous value of 6.2%. If compared with last month, it is at the lowest value, then the impact of macroeconomic indicators also constitutes a recent influencing factor. At the same time, we believe that the uncertain influence of the future science and technology innovation board on the market system also constitutes an internal factor.

Figure 1: growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the past year (chain)

Note: Data come from the Bureau of Statistics and the Information Research Center.

Judging from the net inflow of market funds, CHOICE data shows that the net outflow of main funds in the two cities was-43.754 billion yuan on that day, compared with-6110/000 million yuan yesterday, and the net outflow was obviously negative for consecutive days, indicating that the number of institutions decreased significantly during the period.

Generally speaking, from the perspective of investment strategy, for cautious investors, it is advisable to closely observe the persistence of market quantity and energy indicators and the effective gains and losses of 3000 points, and focus on strategic wait-and-see in the short term; Short-term investors should also adopt a cautious strategy, and the use of market rhythm is more critical.

Cai Xiang Securities: The phased adjustment of the market has arrived.

Today, the stock indexes of the two cities rose slightly after opening lower, and began to fall rapidly after seeing the lowest point in the whole day at 9:45; 10:4 1, rising to the noon closing; In the afternoon, the stock index was mainly arranged sideways; Hot spots on the disk: all plates turned green today, and there was no red disk; Overall: Today, the market shows a downward trend again.

Any wave of market is triggered by the faucet, and any wave of decline is also conducted by the faucet. It is the so-called thief first, king first. Then it is very important to keep an eye on the leading varieties of hot plates, because it has guiding significance for the evolution of the market.

In view of this, yesterday (13), the leading stocks of People's Daily Online and Minjiang Hydropower showed obvious signs of loosening. What signal did Cai Xiang Securities KATTO release after the close yesterday? Bowen said: "The decline of the leading players in the mainstream line has an obvious impact on market sentiment. The gradual cooling of these varieties will drag the market into the adjustment cycle. "

So from today's disk, the market trend is basically in line with our judgment. Recently, a large area of popular varieties has fallen, which directly triggered the overall weakness of today's disk. Not only 100 stocks fell, but also nearly 3 100 stocks fell, which shows that the signs of market adjustment are very obvious.

To sum up: the continuous decline of leading stocks has dealt an obvious blow to the market. After the market rose by 2440-3 129 points, the systemic risk is relatively high, especially for high-position stocks, while the security of low-position stocks is relatively high.

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