However, in the harmonious recovery, the three weaknesses of high unemployment, low consumption and weak exports have made the American economy full of variables, and it has to rely heavily on the government's stimulating fiscal, monetary and financial policies: it is like a flat-bottomed car climbing a hill, which seems to rise slowly, but it is all carried by people and falls as soon as it is released.
Ethan, chief economist of Bank of America North America? 6? Harris of 1 said in an interview that 20 10 will be destined to be a "real watershed": in this year, people will either see investors move forward with confidence or see the hard-won slow recovery interrupted, and the United States will re-enter the second recession.
This statement is not unique, nor is it alarmist. Anyone with a discerning eye can see that the economic recovery in the United States today has only a framework, but it is actually empty. Although the stock market picked up ahead of time, the Dow Jones index rose by 60% compared with March this year; Although crude oil futures and gold prices remain high, investment is booming; Although market lending and mergers and acquisitions are increasing and financing channels are recovering, exports are sluggish and consumption is weak. Only investment is the only way to stimulate economic development.
Under those gratifying figures, 10% of the unemployed people find it difficult to find jobs, and people are timid when shopping. In the past, they contributed more than 70% of the consumption to American economic growth, but now they have no motivation; Moreover, there are many manufacturing problems in the United States, which makes the transformation of "export-driven economy" promoted by President Obama more difficult.
Summers, the chief economic adviser of US President Barack Obama, also admitted that "the previous recoveries of the US economy were unstable, because these recoveries were achieved by stimulating consumption and increasing investment, and did not fundamentally solve structural problems".
In this regard, Bank of America economist Ethan? 6? Harris believes that whether employment can be increased will become the biggest "variable" of American economic recovery, followed by promoting consumption and increasing exports. If employment growth is slow, it will not stimulate consumption growth, but will aggravate credit bad debts, which will drag down the still weak financial institutions, affect the recovery of manufacturing industry, block exports, and ultimately affect economic recovery. The three links are interlocking, and if one link is lax, the American economic chain cannot be restored.
Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has just warned that the unemployment rate in the United States will "continue to rise and remain high in the next few years". For this reason, the American economy must now rely on policymakers, and everyone is asking, "How long can the incentive plan last?" The Obama administration is also well aware of the interests involved, and is trying to expand spending on roads and bridges, and asking Congress to pass a series of plans such as "cash for house repair" as soon as possible, all in order to "expand employment".
Economist Ethan? 6? 1 Harris told reporters with certainty that "any possible decision-making mistakes will prevent the slow economic recovery in the United States."