Of course, it's not surprising if it's just the rise in pig prices. After all, there have been too many cases of pig prices rising and falling before. The difference this time is that not only the pig price has risen, but also the pig futures market has ushered in its first daily limit after the opening of 1 1. As we all know, futures are different from the spot market, and futures often reflect the future trend of the live pig market. Now that the spot is rebounding and the futures are trading daily, does it mean that the pig price will bottom out?

1. Why did the pig price go up?

On the whole, although the pig price has experienced "six consecutive rises", the overall increase is very limited. At present, it has only risen from "4 prefix" to "5 prefix". There are three reasons behind this round of rise:

First, consumption suddenly exerted its strength. In the past, the consumption of pork in the market was really average, but since November, the price of pork in many places has dropped to single digits, which really makes many people lament that "pork is really cheap." Take the author's hometown of Hebei as an example, the pork belly with good appearance is less than 10 yuan a catty. After the National Day, the weather in the north turned cold obviously, and the demand for bacon and sausage increased. In addition, meat is cheap, and the processing cost is about 3 yuan/kg. As a result, many citizens began to queue up to buy meat to make bacon sausages, ranging from ten kilograms to thirty or forty kilograms with a large family population. Therefore, this wave of consumption has indeed played a certain role in boosting the market. After all, considering that a catty of pork cost 30 to 40 yuan at the beginning of the year, it is now less than 10, which is really a world of difference. So many people took the opportunity to buy more and hoard more.

The second is to store and boost the market. Judging from the second round of central purchasing and storage in June 10, all 30,000 tons of pork were sold, and the transaction price was between 9.9- 10 yuan/kg, and the converted pig price was about 7.3-7.5 yuan/kg. This price has a great influence on the market. It is under this influence that the market sentiment has been greatly boosted, directly guiding the futures price to break through the high point and usher in the first daily limit since listing. On the other hand, it is also because this round of pig prices has fallen too much and spent too long in 4 yuan, so the market has placed great hopes on purchasing and storage.

Third, affected by three waves of cold air, there was a large-scale cooling and rainy weather in the country, and the rhythm of pig slaughter slowed down. At this time, the sudden strength of consumption superimposed, and the price of pigs began to rise.

Second, has the pig price bottomed out?

"Cash on hand" has increased. Does this mean that pig prices will bottom out and rebound?

First of all, the first question: what is the price of pigs? According to previous CCTV reports, the number of fertile sows increased from 1.9 1.3 million at the end of September 2009 to 45.64 million at the end of June this year, an increase of 2.3 times. This is also one of the main reasons for the current decline in pig prices, that is, there are too many pigs. However, with the decline of pig prices, most farmers have suffered losses. In the second quarter, except for Muyuan, other listed pig enterprises suffered large losses. As the pig price continues to drop to the prefix 4, which is obviously lower than the cost line, it means that the whole pig industry has entered a stage of total loss, which also means that the pig price has basically entered the bottom.

Let's look at the second question: Is it necessary to bargain-hunting? Judging from the current production capacity, the production capacity of live pigs is still at a high level, and the inventory of frozen products such as imported pork is high this year. Therefore, even if the consumer market starts to exert its strength, it is still a drop in the bucket in the face of huge supply. Therefore, although the current pig price is rising, it is more of a superposition of phased benefits and storage functions, which does not mean that it has ushered in a real bottoming out. Not only that, but the pig market is also facing a "2 robbery".

Third, the "second robbery" of the pig market

1, the slaughter peak is still behind.

The data showed that the number of fertile sows began to decline for the first time in July, but it still showed an inertial growth before July. Therefore, according to the market after 10, the peak of pig slaughter may be ushered in the first half of next year, which may drive the pig price to bottom again.

2. Touching the bottom many times.

Judging from the factors that triggered this round of pig cycle, besides swine fever, there are multiple factors such as epidemic situation, weather and current energy shortage, which means that this round of pig cycle will be more complicated, and only one or two shocks may not make the market really warm up, so the follow-up may face two or three or even more bottom shocks.

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The rainy autumn harvest this year puts a lot of pressure on growers. While the pig price has been falling all the way, the feed price has been rising frequently, and the pressure on farmers has doubled. The current pig cycle is far from over, so the follow-up farmers should adjust their mentality, reasonably adjust the rhythm of slaughter, make good use of every small market under the general trend of the market and spend the cycle smoothly.