It's better to buy early than to buy skillfully. For example, Bank of Communications Select, which was purchased on June 24, 2007, was still losing more than 300 yuan on March 8 due to the sharp drop on February 27. On the other hand, the Jing Shun preferred stock purchased on March 20th earned 1 1,000 yuan on April 6th. Therefore, choose to buy at the trough, hold for a long time, and choose to redeem at the peak.
3. Buy up and kill down: buy when the market rises and sell when the market falls. Being able to sell at the highest point and buy at the lowest point is the greatest skill. For example, Dacheng selected value-added, sold 1.256 on February 4, and if you can sell 1.289 on February 5, you will earn several hundred yuan more. However, if it is not sold in time, the net value by March 8 is only 1.2 137 yuan, and the price of February 14 is not kept, that is, it has been held for 22 days in vain. Bank of Communications bought it on February 26th 1.0055. If I bought it on February 27th at 0.9407, or on March 27th at 0.937, it would be several hundred yuan less. Why did you choose to buy it on February 26th? It happened to be on the market that day.
4, not afraid to buy expensive, as long as you buy it right. If you bought Xingye Trend1.1W at the price of1298 on February 28th, 2006, and kept it until April 28th, 2007, the income was 24,970 yuan, with a yield of 249%. Buy expensive, less share; Buy cheap, share more, but share represents different value. Buy expensive and buy cheap, and the income is the same under the same growth rate.
According to the expert's point of view, when the stock market continues to rise, buy the old fund, because the old fund has completed the opening of the position and the income is stable, that is, the increase reaches a certain height, such as more than 20%; When the stock continues to fall, buy a new fund, because the new fund is building a position, which can reduce the position with the change of the market and avoid greater risks. However, the yield is low, starting from 0, and it will take several months to reach 20%.
5. The key to new and old funds is to look at the level of "rate of return" and "growth rate":
Yield y = (market value-principal)/principal = [a 1 * x-b]/b * 100%, daily growth value = AI-AI- 1, and daily growth rate t = (ai-ai-1). Share x =(b- handling fee) /a0, a 1 = a0 *(a daily growth rate a 1 the interval between A0 and A0 is 1 day, the monthly growth rate is 30 days, the quarterly growth rate is 90 days, and the annual growth rate is 365 days.
Redemption profit and loss of the day = growth value of the day * x = (ai-ai-1) * x;
Redemption profit and loss in the current month = ∑ (AI-AI-1) * x;
Market value = a1* x = A0 * (1+t) * x;
Monthly income Y = market value-principal = A0 * (1+t) * x-b;
Deduction: y = A0 * (1+t) * x-b = A0 * x+A0 * x * t-b, because A0 * x = b, regardless of the handling fee, the formula is obtained:
(1) monthly income y = A0 * (t * x) = b * t, then the yield y = y/b = t = (a1/a0-1);
(2) monthly income y = a1* x-b = A0 * (1+t) * x-b.
Without considering the handling fee, the monthly income is equal to the redemption profit and loss of the current month, that is, the monthly income = the sum of the profit and loss of the current day, A0 * (1+t) * x-b = ∑ (AI-AI- 1) * X. The left and right AI-AI-1is the daily real-time net value, and t is.
Without considering the conditions such as dividends and handling fees, a0 and X are fixed at the time of purchase, so Y is directly proportional to T, that is to say, the monthly income of the same fund remains unchanged regardless of whether it is bought high or low; Monthly income mainly depends on the growth rate t, month y= month t, quarter y = quarter t and so on. However, the T published on the Internet sometimes lags behind, and the rate of return is calculated according to the actual amount incurred every day. Therefore, the two are sometimes different. Moreover, the above formulas are not completely equivalent and are for reference only.
If analyzed according to a certain period of time, such as one year, Ms. Lin and Mr. Wang both plan to invest 654.38 million yuan to purchase the fund as follows:
Net subscription rate and share subscription fee for fund share subscription
Ms. Alin Fund 2 yuan 1% 49,500 copies110,000 yuan.
Mr. Wang's Fund B 1 Yuan1%99,000 copies 1000 Yuan.
A year later, the two funds achieved the same rate of return T = 10%! Two people each calculated an account:
Ms. Lin's A fund rose to 2.2 yuan with a market value of 108900=49500*2.2 yuan, earning 8900 yuan;
Mr. Wang's fund B rose to 1. 1 yuan, with a market value of108900 = 99000 *1.1yuan, and also earned 8900 yuan.
Comprehensive conclusion:
1, when the growth rate t of different funds is the same, the total income of new and old funds is the same: the higher the growth rate, the higher the income of new and old funds; The growth rate is low, and the income of new and old funds is low. In other words, high-net-worth funds are often old funds, with early positions, stable income and high growth rate T, such as 20%; Low net worth is often new funds, which are late in opening positions, unstable in income and low in growth rate. It takes several months to go from 0 to 20%. The results can be seen by observing the total income of the "reference fund" purchased on the same day for one month or half a year.
2. The monthly income of the same fund has nothing to do with the subscription price a0, that is, the market value of buying expensive and cheap is the same, and the monthly income depends on the monthly growth rate t.
3. Fund subscription: T+ 1 is used for confirmation, that is, the net value on the subscription day is a0, and the account is opened the next day to calculate the income. Profit and loss on the second day of subscription = profit and loss on the same day-handling fee (subscription fee 0.6%+ redemption fee 0.5%) = (A65438 on the second day of subscription+0-A0 on the day of subscription) * x-x *1.1%. But the stock market, like economic development, fluctuates, that is, a certain period is a peak and a certain period is a trough. The economic cycle of the stock market is generally 5 ~ 10 days. Choose to buy funds when the stock market is low, and then use another rising cycle of the stock market to increase income. If you choose to buy at the peak and fall after buying, then the income will decrease. Mainly consider the growth rate, you can ignore the net value and share on the day of purchase, but consider the stock market cycle, buy the peak and bottom of the economic cycle-enjoy the growth with the growth income after purchase.
In 2007, the stock market fluctuated: the peak and trough were 65438+1October 3 1 respectively, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.92%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 7.62%; On February 27th, after 27th, investors' fear of rumors caused the Shanghai Composite Index to fall by 8.84% and the Shenzhen Composite Index to fall by 9.29%. April 19, 20 days later, due to the economic indicators of the previous year published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.92% and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 5.23%. 26 days later, on May 15, due to Chairman Yin Hua's claim that there was a bubble in the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.64% and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 2.7 1%.
Redemption fund: As it is calculated according to the net value of the redemption date, if the price rises on that day, the redemption income can be increased = (0-A0 the day before the redemption date A65438) * X. If the price falls on that day, the income will be reduced. We must consider the net value on the day of redemption, that is, selling the peaks and valleys of the economic cycle-starting to fall after redemption to avoid falling losses.
4. The old fund has strong bearish ability: the opening of positions has been stable, the growth rate is stable and high, the risk resistance is strong, and the yield is high. Therefore, when the stock market continues to rise, choose the old fund. The new fund cycle is from one quarter to half a year, with low growth rate, weak risk resistance and low income. However, the position can be adjusted at any time with the change of the stock market to reduce the risk. Therefore, when the stock market fluctuates greatly, choosing a new fund can avoid greater risks.
Funds are investments, not commodities. The net value of the fund reflects the size of each asset in the fund assets. It will not be affected by the relationship between supply and demand like commodities or stocks, but will only change with the profit and loss of fund assets. When choosing a fund, we should look at its profitability (rate of return) rather than the size (net value) of its current assets. That is, the fund buys high and sells high, and the income depends on the growth rate. Just like drugs, unlike other commodities, the selling price is determined by the market, and the purchase price is high and the profit is low.
5. The fund will also lose money: if you buy a0= 1.0085 yuan from South Dolly on February 28th, 2007 and a 1= 1.0048 yuan on May 28th, 2007, the quarterly income will be -99.84 yuan. Month t = 0.37%, quarter t = 0.63%. So choosing a fund means choosing the growth rate, not the net value a0.
6. So the misunderstanding of buying a fund: the lower the net worth, the higher the income. Buy a newly issued, split and dividend-paying fund. This is a number game played by fund companies to cater to investors' fear of heights. These funds have to re-open positions after issuance, split and dividend distribution, and the growth rate is low, which affects the income.
7. Final conclusion: Choose T and choose trading opportunity. Buying different funds has nothing to do with a0, mainly considering month T or season T; The same fund has nothing to do with a0, mainly considering monthly T or quarterly T, but considering the stock market cycle, buying peaks and buying valleys. Buy the bottom of the peak, it will go up if you buy it, buy one day earlier, hold one more day, and gain one more day; Sell peaks and valleys, and sell them and they will fall. If you sell one day earlier, you will lose one day. During the continuous rise of the stock market, buying old funds has a high increase and strong resilience; During the continuous decline of the stock market, the growth rate of buying new funds is low, but the position is adjusted quickly to avoid risks? )
Growth rate T: According to the introduction of harvest fund Company, pay attention to the cumulative growth rate calculated with reference to the cumulative net value of funds above 1 year. The first third are good funds, and we cannot simply consider the current growth rate of one month, one quarter or half a year.
Time period of comparison between new fund and old fund: the accumulated net value/period of old fund is converted into monthly growth rate and compared with new fund, which is comparable.
Index fund: When a fund company buys stocks, it does not buy them according to the investment plan at the time of issuing the fund, but buys and sells stocks at any time according to the market conditions to earn the difference. This is called a replicated index. For example, Boshifu, Jiashi CSI 300, Dacheng CSI 300 and other funds.
1. Opening and closing time of stocks: 9: 30- 1 1: 30, 1: 00- 15: 00.
Trading hours of bank funds: 9: 30- 1 1: 30, 1: 00- 15: 00.
Closed on Friday, Saturday and legal holidays.
Two. Time for calculating the net value of fund subscription and redemption:
1. Fund subscription: T+ 1 is used for calculation, that is, the net value of the fund subscribed on the current day is calculated according to the net value of the current day (but announced after 20 o'clock), and it will be received the next day (postponed on weekends or holidays); But we don't know the net value of the day before 15, so we can only buy it according to the estimated net value of Dolemi and Sina. As a reference price. If it is postponed on Saturday and Sunday, it will be issued next week if it is bought on Friday.
2. Fund redemption: T+2 calculation is adopted, that is, the fund redemption on that day is calculated according to the actual net value of that day (but it will not be announced until after 20 o'clock), and the redemption amount will arrive in the account two working days later. If it is postponed on Saturday and Sunday, if it is redeemed on Friday, it will be paid next Wednesday.
3. Special circumstances: the purchase or redemption vouchers that have been traded before 15 can be opened.
4. The calculation formula of fund subscription is: subscription fee = subscription amount × subscription rate. Subscription share = (subscription amount-subscription fee) ÷ Net value of the fund unit on the application date. The calculation formula of fund redemption is: redemption fee = redemption share × net value of fund unit on redemption day × redemption rate.
If Changsheng Tongzhi Advantage 1W is purchased on May 6, 2007, the subscription fee = 10000 * 0.6% = 60 yuan, and the subscription share = (10000-60)/1.300. Redemption fee = 7606.37×1.3068× 0.5% = 49.70 yuan. Profit and loss on the day of subscription = subscription fee+redemption fee =-60-49.70 =- 109.70 yuan, that is, the income is not calculated on the day, t+ 1 calculated income, that is, 17. 17 =- 109.70+ (a1-A0 on the second day of buying) * x.
Three. Real-time estimation of fund net value: real-time viewing from Dolemi 123 Fund Network:
You can view the real-time ups and downs of the heavyweights on the day 10, the percentage of heavyweights in all positions, the real-time estimated fund net value and the real-time net value growth percentage on the day, but the estimated net value on the day 15:00 is different from the actual net value announced by the fund company. Deviation rate = (actual net value-estimated net value of Sina.com)/estimated net value of Sina.com×100%.
Why is there a deviation? Since the real-time estimated net value of Dolemi or Since is calculated according to the estimated proportion of the total stock positions of the Fund 10, such as 40%, the deadline for real-time estimation is the current day 15. In addition to 10 heavy positions, there are 60% other stocks, bonds and money funds. The actual net value announced by the fund company is to calculate all positions, and the calculation time is 15, but the announcement time is 20 o'clock. So there is a difference. The actual net value may be higher than the estimated net value or lower than the estimated net value.
At the same time, from Doremi Fund Network, you can also directly enter Sina.com to inquire about the fund's net value estimate, the percentage of increase and decrease, and view the real-time trend chart. But Sina's net worth is estimated. Net value estimation of com and doremi.
There are differences. Through observation, the estimated net value of Sina.com is close to the actual net value, so the estimated net value of Sina.com is taken as a reference.
4. Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index: View from Sina.com's financial horizon: My fund-click on the net value of the fund-Sina's real-time trend (see Sina's forecast page for details)-enter the "financial horizon" page-click on Shanghai Stock Exchange Index or Shanghai Stock Exchange Index-enter the index view page.
Index rise and fall = [latest index (i.e. today's closing)-yesterday's closing]/yesterday's closing = index rise and fall/yesterday's closing.
Exponential amplitude = (highest today-lowest today)/lowest today. The real-time fluctuation line is a curve that changes up and down; The black line connecting the highest and lowest is the average line of exponential amplitude.
Shanghai Stock Exchange Fund: Fund volatility index published by Shanghai Stock Exchange.
SSE Fund: It is the fund fluctuation index published by SSE Fund Exchange.
5. Best trading time of the day: 2: 50 pm is the best trading time. The fund price fluctuates with the market price, and now the market fluctuates more frequently every day. If the market rises in the afternoon, then this time is more suitable for selling, and a higher price will be sold on this day. If the market falls in the afternoon, it is more suitable for buying, because buying at this time is also a lower price in a day.
Experience summary of checking funds with intransitive verbs;
1. Determine the target of expected rate of return: Experts predict that the expected rate of return in 2007 will be much lower than that in 2006, generally 20% ~ 30%. That is, once the rate of return is reached, consider redeeming the fund.
2. Look at the market: check the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index in real time. When the market goes up, the net value of the fund goes up. Conversely, when the market falls, the net value of the fund will fall. (The historical peak of the Shanghai Composite Index is 3,000 points, and the closer it is to 3,000 points, it means that the stock is appreciating. Experts estimate that it is around 2900 before and after the Spring Festival. On February 7, 2007, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index was 754 1.74. )
3. Look at "My Fund": View the net value and trend of my fund in real time. If it keeps falling that day, it will basically reach the expected goal. You can consider redeeming in time before 15. If you don't achieve the expected goal, let it fall. On the other hand, if it falls for several days and starts to rise one day, then you can consider buying it the next day.
4. Black Tuesday: On Tuesday, February 27th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets (A shares, the same below) fluctuated downward all day. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3048.83 and closed at 277 1.79, down 268.8 1 point, or 8.84%. Shenzhen Component Index opened at 85 14.567 and closed at 7790.82, down 723.76 or 9.29%. The one-day decline of Shanghai stock market was the highest in the history of China stock market, the first time in ten years, and affected the global stock market decline.
Wednesday: many experts have saved the next day, and there will be a retaliatory rebound on Wednesday, which turns out to be a rebound; On the same day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded strongly, with increases exceeding 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 288 1.07 points, up 109.28 points or 3.94% from the previous trading day. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8039.70 points, up 3. 19% from the previous trading day.
Thursday: It fell by 3% again, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower at 2,877.2 points on that day, and then it went out of a volatile downward market. The highest point in the whole day was 2878.36, and it fell to 2760.9 1 point. Although it rebounded, it failed to regain the integer mark of 2800 points, and finally closed at 2797. 19 points, down 8 1. 17 points, down 2.9 1% compared with the previous trading day. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 803.28 and closed at 7801.1point, down 23 1.69 points, down 2.97% from the previous trading day.
Friday: Experts say it is a mid-term adjustment, and Friday is a watershed, that is, the trend is upward, and Xiaoyang will be seen in the future, otherwise it will continue to fall. It should be said that most stocks rebounded in different degrees in early trading on Friday, but the hot spots were chaotic and scattered. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2792.94 and closed at 283 1.53, up or down 34.34 or 1.23%. Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened at 7795.35 and closed at 7923.33, up or down 1 18.98, up 1.52%.
When I saw Xiaoyang on Wednesday, I entered the warehouse, which was growing by 5,000 yuan, and Changsheng Hongzhi earned 5,000 yuan. This was the buying decision of the market when it was rebounding, but it fell by 3% on Thursday. Error: I only saw Xiaoyang, without considering the oscillation factor of "mid-term adjustment" suggested by experts. The decision to buy when the market is low is accurate, but being able to buy at the lowest time and sell at the highest time is the most capable performance. Therefore, we should not only look at the timely trend, but also look at the long-term trend.
5. How to look at the stock market index: The market index is represented by white lines and yellow lines, namely:
1) white curve: it represents the weighted index of the broader market, that is, the actual index of the broader market published by the stock exchange every day. Straight flush is called real-time trend line.
2) Yellow curve: the market does not contain weighted indicators, that is, regardless of the size of the stock sector, all stocks are regarded as having the same impact on the index to calculate the market index. Straight flush is called average price trend line.
Referring to the mutual position of the white and yellow curves, we can know that: a) when the market index rises, the yellow line is above the white line, indicating that the stocks with smaller circulation have a larger increase; On the contrary, the yellow line is below the white line, indicating that small-cap stocks lag behind large-cap stocks. B) When the market index falls, the yellow line is above the white line, indicating that there are fewer stocks with smaller circulation than those with larger circulation; On the other hand, small stocks fell more than large stocks.
So we mainly look at the timely trend of the white line, and at the same time look at the ups and downs of the day (ups and downs = today's closing-yesterday's closing) and ups and downs (today's ups and downs/yesterday's closing).
3) Red (buy) green (sell) column line: There is a red-green column line near the red-white curve, reflecting the trading ratio of all stocks in the market at the moment. The shortening of the growth of the red bar indicates the increase or decrease of purchasing power; The shortening of the growth of the green column line shows the strength of downward selling.
4) Yellow bar line: below the red and white figure, it is used to indicate the turnover per minute, and the unit is hand (each hand is equal to 100 shares).
How to see the real-time time time-sharing trend chart of individual stocks;
1) White curve: It represents the real-time transaction price of this stock.
2) Yellow curve: It represents the real-time average transaction price of this stock, that is, the total transaction amount of the day divided by the total number of shares traded.
3) Yellow bar line: below the red and white figure, used to represent the turnover per minute.
6. There are two yellow lines and white lines at the bottom of the big reference V-line. Referring to the mutual position of the white line and the yellow line, we can know that: a) When the market index rises, the yellow line is above the white line, indicating that the stocks with smaller circulation have a larger increase; On the contrary, the yellow line is below the white line, indicating that small-cap stocks lag behind large-cap stocks. B) When the market index falls, the yellow line is above the white line, indicating that there are fewer stocks with smaller circulation than those with larger circulation; On the other hand, small stocks fell more than large stocks.
7. Experts usually use 5th (black line), 10 (blue line) and 30th (red line) when saving trends. When the trend of this file falls below 5 days, 10 days and 30 days, it shows that the market has fallen seriously. For example, on February 27, 2007, it was like this, with an average decline of 8%; On March 1 day, the trend fell below the 5th and 10 lines, approaching the 30th line, with an average decrease of 3%.
8. The trend line of Sina's Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index. Com: The blue line indicates the timely fluctuation trend of the index, and the black line indicates the timely amplitude trend, that is, the average fluctuation interval, which is called the moving average.
Is it better to buy a new fund than an old one? When the stock market continues to rise, the performance of new funds is often not as good as that of old funds. It will take several months for new funds to open positions, and some gains will be missed, while the old funds with higher positions can get more gains. When the stock market continues to rise, the old fund should be preferred; When the market is at a high level and the direction is unclear, you can choose a new fund first.
Bull market: Bull market, also known as bull market, refers to a market that is generally bullish and lasts for a long time.
Bear market: Bear market, also known as short market, refers to the general bear market, which lasts for a relatively long time.
Long position: the trading behavior of buying a certain number of stocks at the current price and then selling them at a high price in anticipation of future price increases, characterized by buying first and then selling.
Short position: in the case of expected future market decline, sell the stocks at the current price and buy them after the market decline to make a profit. It is characterized by the trading behavior of selling first and then buying.
Lidu; Various factors and news that are beneficial to bulls and can stimulate stock prices to rise, such as loose monetary policy and accelerated GDP growth.
Not good; Factors and information that are beneficial to short positions and can lead to stock price decline, such as interest rate rise, economic recession, company operating losses, etc.
For foreign exchange trading, shorting means shorting, and buying means going long. Short selling requires money, not stocks, while long selling requires stocks, not money. Simple.
At noon on April 18, 2007, it was reported that more than 60% of the funds significantly reduced their positions, with partial stocks reducing their positions by 5.58 percentage points and stocks by 4.8 percentage points. Reason: The market continued to rise for one round, and its buoyancy weakened, so it temporarily withdrew from the stock market and lightened its position.
April 17 forecast, April 19 positive growth rate announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, etc. Thursday is a crucial day for stocks, real estate, bonds, etc. Later changes were announced at 3 pm for fear of causing the stock market to skyrocket. Someone warned that it was "Black Thursday". At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3449.02,-163.38,-4.52%; Shenzhen Stock Exchange closed at 9857.23, -544.39 and -5.23%. The decline on February 27th was 57%, exceeding the 3% on February 29th. The amplitude is 7.2%. Confirmed the "black Thursday" predicted by experts.
On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes got rid of the shadow of yesterday's huge decline, opened higher and went higher, both recovered their 5-day moving averages, and the trading volume shrank slightly. The Shanghai stock market opened at 3,460.90 points today, with a maximum of 359 1.46 points and a minimum of 3,460.90 points, and closed at 3,584.30 points, up by 135 17 points, with a turnover of1573.9 million yuan, an increase of 3.92%. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 9884.48 points today, with the highest at 10305.00 points and the lowest at 9884.48 points, and closed at 10258.64 points, up 40 1.465438 points, or 4.07%, with a turnover of 86.727 billion yuan.
Stock index futures: the full name is "stock index futures", which is based on the stock index. It is a standardized agreement that the buyer and the seller agree to conduct stock index trading at a predetermined stock price in the future.
The subscription of newly issued funds is generally based on the unit of face value 1 yuan, and the subscription price is 1 yuan no matter whether the net value of the fund rises or falls on the day of issuance; The net purchase value of the split old fund is the net value announced after the close of the day.
Friday, May 25th, 2007 will be a key trading day. If the index recovers the negative line that fell on Thursday, it is more likely that the market will continue to rise.