After this adjustment, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions was lowered to 12%, and the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium financial institutions was lowered to 10%. Looking at the changes of China's deposit reserve ratio in the past 15 years, it has experienced a process of continuous upward adjustment to continuous downward adjustment. After the deposit reserve ratio peaked at 20 1 1, it went through a long downward adjustment process. Take large financial institutions as an example, it has dropped from 20 1 1 to 2 1.5% in June to 12% now. As for small and medium-sized financial institutions, it dropped from 19.5% at that time to 10%.
The RRR cut of the central bank itself is one of the important monetary policies of the central bank. From the perspective of the central bank, by reducing the statutory deposit reserve ratio, the purpose of releasing liquidity and stimulating the economy can be achieved. Although China's deposit reserve ratio has been lowered by 10 years, compared with the mature global market, there is still room for adjustment.
This time, the central bank's comprehensive reduction of RRR interest rate exceeded market expectations. In the final analysis, the market is more active in the current economic recovery. Under normal circumstances, it will not use comprehensive RRR cuts to stimulate the economy. However, from the comprehensive RRR cut analysis of the central bank, we mainly consider the impact of the continuous rise in commodity prices in the first half of the year, which has had a certain impact on small and micro enterprises. The most direct impact is to increase operating costs and operating pressure.
According to the statement of the central bank, the prudent monetary policy orientation has not changed. Then, we also need to look at the market's reaction to the central bank's overall RRR cut.
It is less than 48 hours from the release of the RRR cut signal by the National People's Congress to the comprehensive RRR cut by the central bank. It can be seen that the market is not fully prepared for this RRR cut. From the reaction analysis of market investment sentiment, it is estimated that short-term stimulus will be formed. In addition, we can note that when the central bank issued a comprehensive RRR interest rate cut policy, the A50 futures index showed a straight upward trend, which is also a sign that the market is optimistic about this news.
With the implementation of the central bank's comprehensive RRR reduction measures, it is estimated that the central bank's expectation of raising interest rates during the year may fail, which also reflects that the current domestic monetary policy has not changed substantially. Previously, the market was worried that the currency would tighten expectations, and even the pressure of the interest rate hike cycle would be significantly eased.
This time, the RRR comprehensive fee reduction policy can be implemented quickly, to some extent, due to the increase in operating costs of SMEs caused by the increase in commodity prices in the first half of the year. At the same time, it also benefited from the fact that the current CPI data is still at a low level, and the year-on-year increase of PPI data began to peak down. Under the background of stable and controllable important economic data, the measures to reduce RRR in an all-round way have also been accelerated.
However, from the background analysis of the introduction of the policy, on the one hand, it is related to the fact that the Fed is still hesitant to raise interest rates, and it is difficult for the Fed to make a decision to raise interest rates in advance in a short time, which also brings room for policy adjustment to the world; On the other hand, taking into account the demand for sustained and stable market liquidity in the second half of the year, we will release some liquidity by lowering the deposit reserve ratio, guide financial institutions to make moderate profits, and reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
From the investor's point of view, the overall RRR cut will release a certain amount of liquidity, and where these liquidity will flow is undoubtedly a concern of everyone.
From the direct impact analysis of the overall RRR interest rate cut, the most direct impact is to boost the real economy and reduce the financing cost of the real economy. However, it is not excluded that some liquidity will flow to investment channels such as stock market and real estate.
But unlike many years ago, the pertinence of capital guidance and supervision has been significantly improved. Even if some funds indirectly flow to the stock market and the property market, it is only a very low proportion of funds. At the same time, the current property market has a policy of "housing and not speculating", and the credit environment of the real estate market is relatively difficult, so it will be more effective to benefit from RRR's comprehensive interest rate cut. For the stock market, the market index has been obviously distorted, and the stock market has basically maintained a wide fluctuation pattern. The probability of unilateral rise in the second half of the year, such as 20 19 or 2020, is not too high. However, judging from the market investment sentiment, it will definitely be stimulated more or less, and the current trend of the A-share market is more susceptible to factors such as market investment sentiment.
Behind the central bank's comprehensive RRR reduction measures, some people are happy and others are worried. It is estimated that the people who are most worried now are investors who invest in big finance, real estate and infrastructure. In just half a year, white horse stocks including China Ping An, Midea Group, Conch and Sany Heavy Industry all fell by more than 30%, which has reached or even exceeded the adjustment of 20 18 years. Obviously, this is an abnormal market phenomenon in itself.
Fundamentally, although there are twists and turns, it will not completely deteriorate. Compared with 4,000 listed companies in the A-share market, these companies are at least better than more than 98%. As for the ability of profit growth, there may be pressure at this stage, and even the bottleneck of profit growth will appear. However, excellent enterprises are different from ordinary enterprises and have strong profit recovery ability, and short-term pain is more likely to bring long-term healthy development. In addition, it may be related to the change of market investment style and the centralized selling of institutional investors. Perhaps, from the perspective of institutional funds, the investment logic of such enterprises has begun to change. Big capital is unwilling to wait for the reform and transformation process of enterprises for a long time, but chooses to seek more certain investment opportunities under the background of stock capital, which is also the sequela of excessive group gathering of institutions in the early stage.
For the falling white horse stocks, the policy of blowing warm air may not immediately change the downward trend of the stock price. But for these listed companies, one or more Changyang lines are most needed to break the dilemma, which may also be an effective way to reverse the dilemma of such white horse stocks. From a certain point of view, emotional factors dominate the unexpected price trend of White Horse shares. When the extremely pessimistic emotional risk is released, the stock price will have a gradual repair process.