According to the data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, from 20 10 to 12, China imported natural rubber (including latex)1680,000 tons, an increase of 8.8% over the same period in 2009. Imported synthetic rubber (including latex)1565,400 tons, an increase of 6.3% over the same period in 2009. Among them, natural rubber 180000 tons and synthetic rubber 15. 1 10000 tons were imported in June and February.
Chang Yizhi, a researcher in the chemical industry of China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., believes that due to the booming domestic automobile market in recent years, automobile production and sales have increased greatly, tire enterprises are more optimistic about the future development prospects, and they have expanded their tire production capacity one after another, making the price of 20 10 rubber high, the import volume of china rubber still increased compared with 2009.
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in 20 10, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded180,000, reaching 18264700 and180/900 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 32.44% and 32.37 respectively. Among them, the automobile production and sales in June 5438+February were 1864800 and 1666700 respectively, up 6.27% from the previous month and down 1.79% from the same period last year. It increased by 22.30% and 17.90% respectively.
The price of 20 10 rubber rose sharply. Data show that before the financial crisis, the highest price of natural rubber was about 28,000 yuan/ton. The price of 20 10 natural rubber rose sharply, especially in the second half of the year. By 1 1, the domestic rubber futures price is as high as 39,000 yuan/ton.
Chang Yizhi believes that although China's automobile production and sales increased year-on-year in 20 10, the growth rate slowed down in terms of monthly sales. Moreover, recently, big cities with spending power have begun to introduce congestion control measures, and the state's measures to encourage automobile consumption will also be withdrawn, which will curb automobile sales to a certain extent. It is predicted that 20 1 1 automobile production and sales will not be hot in 20 10. In recent years, the production capacity of automobile enterprises has expanded rapidly, and then there will be overcapacity in the automobile industry, which will affect the demand for tires.
Moreover, due to the high price of 20 10 rubber, the price of natural rubber is still at a high level, and the production cost of tire enterprises has increased greatly, resulting in losses for some domestic tire enterprises. Therefore, under the expectation of high raw material prices and limited demand, the profitability of 20 1 1 tire enterprises is not optimistic. Relevant data show that the profit of the tire industry decreased by 22% year-on-year with a loss of 26% at 2010+1.
China's tire industry suffered a "life and death robbery"
The crazy rise in the price of natural rubber has once again brought the domestic tire giants together. 13 in the afternoon, in the meeting room of China Rubber Industry Association, seven domestic tire giants held an emergency closed-door meeting to discuss how to deal with the soaring raw material prices.
38,220 yuan per ton, which is the closing price of Shanghai natural rubber futures main force 1 105 contract on June 35, 438+ 10, which is close to the historical highest level of 39,800 set in June10 last year. In 20 10, the price of natural rubber increased by more than 80%, and the price of natural rubber has doubled so far.
"Since 20 10, 10, the price of natural rubber has gone up wildly. The era of 30 thousand yuan has become a thing of the past. At present, the price of natural rubber has approached the 40,000 yuan mark. " Deng Yali, vice president of China Rubber Industry Association, said that the soaring price of rubber has caused the production cost of domestic tire enterprises to soar and faced huge negative profit pressure.
For domestic tire enterprises, this is definitely a "life and death robbery". In addition to the enormous pressure brought by the crazy rise in raw material prices, domestic tire enterprises must also deal with the challenges downstream of the industrial chain. According to the tire companies participating in the meeting, based on the expectation of tire price increase, dealers have increased their inventory one after another, increasing by more than 50% compared with last year. The cost pressure of tire manufacturers cannot be passed on at all.
Chen, a representative of Shuangqian Group Co., Ltd., said that the tire cost in the industry has increased by more than 50%, but the price increase last year did not exceed 20%. Tire companies can't quickly pass on the pressure of rising costs, and their survival is "worse".
The participating enterprises predict that the average profit of the tire industry will drop by 30%-50% in 20 10, and the situation will be even worse in the first quarter of this year, and many enterprises will suffer losses.
It is understood that since last year, the high price of natural rubber has increased the production cost of tire enterprises by 50%. Although enterprises have raised tire prices many times, they still can't offset the sharp increase in costs caused by rising raw material prices. From last year's 1 to 1 1, the profit of the tire industry decreased by 22% and the loss was 26%. Moreover, from the downstream tire market, truck and bus manufacturers, construction machinery manufacturers and maintenance markets have clearly stated that they cannot accept the continuous increase in tire prices, which will seriously squeeze the tire market this year.
In this context, most tire companies have to start planning to reduce production or even stop production. In order to cope with the soaring price of natural rubber, seven tire companies are going to take advantage of the Spring Festival holiday and plan to stop production for about half a month to reduce the use of high-priced raw materials to produce tires.
"According to common sense, 1 to February every year is the traditional off-season demand for natural rubber. Coupled with the favorable weather in rubber-producing countries such as Thailand and Malaysia this year, why did the price increase so much? Mainly because of the factors of capital speculation. At present, international capital speculators are still betting that prices will continue to rise. " Shen, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd. said.
"The natural rubber futures market in China is now a casino," Shen said. At present, the maximum natural rubber futures position is close to 200,000 lots, and the maximum trading volume is close to 2 million lots, with 6,543,800+0.5 million lots being a normal state. "One day's trading volume is more than China's consumption in two years. There is too much hot money in the china rubber futures trading market! " Shen said to.
According to reports, the annual consumption of natural rubber in the world is about 9 million tons, of which China consumes more than 3 million tons, accounting for about one third of the global consumption. In this way, the global market pool of natural rubber is not large, so if the government puts in about 654.38+10,000 tons of national storage rubber, the spot market price of the whole natural rubber can be stabilized.
"The tire industry in China is experiencing unprecedented difficulties and needs the joint efforts of the enterprise itself, the industry and the government to tide over the difficulties." Cai Weimin, Secretary-General of Tire Branch of China Rubber Industry Association, suggested that the government should improve the reserve mediation mechanism, seize the favorable opportunity to put in the national reserve rubber, improve the trading varieties in the rubber futures market, and stabilize the excessive natural rubber market price. At the same time, urge the relevant government departments to reduce the import tariff of natural rubber as soon as possible, and urge synthetic rubber production enterprises to standardize the price of synthetic rubber to ensure the stable and healthy development of the domestic tire industry.