But we originally thought that the fundamental reason why Mr. He was able to be invincible in casinos for decades was actually his profound understanding and application of mathematics and probability.
? In the casino run by Mr. Ho, the mathematical expectation (or expected return) of all gambling games is biased towards Mr. Ho's casino side, not the player side. Therefore, the more players go to Macau Casino to participate in the game, the more money Mr. He will make.
In the casino, the probability advantages of different gambling games are different, but most of them are distributed between 1%-3%. Let's take Baccarat as an example. Bankers usually have a probability advantage of about 2%. Don't underestimate this small 2%, because with the increase in the number of players who participate in the game and the increase in the number of players who come to Macao casinos to participate in the game, this 2% will become very huge, huge enough to bear the gambling king to build many casinos as luxurious as the palace, feed all the casino staff, and leave a huge asset of 500 billion. This humble 2% probability advantage is the enduring mystery of the gambling king Stanley Ho's all-round casino for decades.
Casinos generally employ a large number of actuaries with high salaries. After a large number of accurate calculations, the mathematical expectation value of each game item, that is, the expected rate of return, is obtained, and then the expected rate of return is slightly tilted to one's own side through the setting of game rules. Generally, it is about 2% probability advantage. This value can't be too small, otherwise the casino owner doesn't have much profit; It can't be too big, otherwise it won't attract players to bet.
Many people think that 2% is nothing. When making money, I earn 100%. Giving away such a small score is nothing. In fact, this is because the player did not carefully calculate the posting. If you can earn 100% every time you bet, this 2% is nothing. But you can't make money every time. In fact, you often lose money, and you still need to pay this 2% when you lose money. It's amazing. It's equivalent to a player betting in a casino. If you don't make money or lose 50 times, your principal will also lose!
Gambling is actually a game between two parties, but why do casino owners always make long-term profits? This is mainly because gamblers and casino owners have completely different thinking. The logic of players participating in gambling games is that they feel that they can accurately predict the outcome of this bet. When the player thinks that the result of this bet is good, as long as he has money in his hand, he is likely to bet heavily; The casino owner knows very well that the core logic of his making money actually lies in the 2% probability advantage mentioned above. Casino owners never thought they could accurately predict the outcome of their bets. However, deep down, he knows that although he can't predict a certain time, he has predicted the result of combining thousands of bets through calculation! This is a 2% probability advantage!
This probability advantage is not obvious in the case of a small number of transactions, or even not felt at all, but when the number of players going to Macao increases to thousands or tens of thousands, or the number of transactions is huge, and hundreds of thousands or millions of bets are made every day, this winning percentage advantage will be very significant. Theoretically, with a 2% probability advantage, if 50 people bet at the same time, Mr. He can win all the money of one of them. Awesome!
Some people say that casinos win money, probably because they cheat. In fact, this is just a hypothesis that a gambler analyzes problems from his own point of view. From the casino owner's point of view, he hopes to establish a fair, just and open casino environment, because only in this way can more players come to the casino to participate in the game, and he only needs to maintain a 2% probability advantage. Casino owners have no internal motivation and need to cheat. On the contrary, for gamblers, because the mathematical expectation is negative, with the increase of betting times, the result of long-term gambling must be one word: lose! So from the player's point of view, the way to win money today must be to watch more and move less, and bet at a certain time. In this way, players have more internal motives and needs for cheating. Because most players rely on a single victory for a living, just like buying lottery tickets, buying lottery tickets for a long time is definitely a loss, and buying them occasionally may make money.
It can be seen that the real mystery of Changsheng gambling king lies in mathematics and probability, and in the ability to control the expected value of mathematics. When we invest in stock futures in the future, we must learn from Stanley Ho. In other words, we must ensure that the mathematical expectation of the trading system we use is positive. Only an active trading system can make us make money under the condition of a large number of transactions, and finally ensure long-term and stable profits.
In the usual investment speculation, we should also try our best to participate in active investment. Games with negative mathematical expectations, such as gambling in Macao and playing mahjong in teahouses, can only be used as entertainment to kill boring time occasionally, but never participate in these activities for the purpose of making money. If you participate for a long time, the final result will inevitably be a loss, because the mathematical expectations of these projects are negative.
If you want to make a long-term stable profit, really make a living by trading, and hope to get a better life through investment, then you must participate in the project with positive expected rate of return, even if its expected rate of return is very low, even if it is only 2% of that of Stanley Ho, but as long as every little makes a mickle, you will succeed in the end!
Today's sharing is over. I hope it will help everyone. Thank you.