In essence, a stock is just a kind of certificate, and its function is to prove the property rights of the holder, unlike ordinary commodities, which contain use value, so the stock itself has no value and cannot have a price. However, after holding shares, shareholders can not only attend the shareholders' meeting and exert influence on the management decision of the joint-stock company, but also enjoy the right to share dividends and obtain corresponding economic benefits. Therefore, shares are also a kind of virtual capital, which can be used as a special commodity to enter the market for circulation and transfer. The value of stock is to measure the value of stock as a means of profit in the form of money. The so-called profit-making means, that is, the economic benefits that holders can obtain by virtue of stocks. The greater the interest, the higher the value of the stock.

There are five kinds of stock values: face value, net value, realized value, market value and intrinsic value.

1. The face value of the stock. The face value of a stock is the face value indicated by a joint-stock company on the issued stock. It takes yuan A shares as the unit, and its function is to indicate the amount of capital contained in each stock. The face value of the stock is generally printed on the front of the stock, which is basically an integer, such as one hundred yuan, ten yuan, one yuan and so on. The face value of the shares circulating in China, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges must be one yuan, that is, one yuan per share. The original intention of the par value of the stock is to ensure that the holder of the stock can recover the assets marked on the par when withdrawing the stock. With the development of stocks, stocks cannot be withdrawn after purchase. Therefore, the first function of stock par value is to show the proportion of stock subscribers in the investment of joint-stock companies, as a basis for confirming shareholders' rights. If the total share capital of a listed company is10 million yuan, holding one share means that the shares in the joint-stock company are one in ten million. The second function is to use the face value of the stock as the basis for issuing pricing when issuing shares for the first time.

Generally speaking, the issue price of a stock will be higher than its face value. When the stock enters the secondary market, the price of the stock is separated from the face value of the stock, and there is no direct connection between them. Since investors love to speculate on it, how high will it be? For example, some stocks in Shanghai stock market have reached more than 80 yuan in the past few years, but their face value is only 1 yuan.

2. The net value of the stock. The net value of a stock, also known as book value and net assets per share, refers to the net assets per share calculated by accounting methods. Its calculation method is to add the registered capital of the company to various accumulation funds and accumulated surplus, which is also commonly known as shareholders' equity, and divide the net assets by the total share capital to be the net value per share. The book value of the stock is the actual property of the joint-stock company after all debts are eliminated, and it is the net assets of the joint-stock company.

As the book value is the result of accounting, its figures are highly accurate and reliable, so it is one of the important bases for stock investors to evaluate and analyze the operating strength of listed companies. The higher the book value of a joint-stock company, the more property shareholders actually own; On the contrary, if the book value of stocks is low, shareholders will have less property. Although the book value of a stock is only an accounting concept, it is of great reference to investors' investment analysis, and it is also the direct basis for generating the stock price, because the closer the stock price is to the net assets per share, the closer the stock price is to the book value of the stock.

In the stock market, shareholders should not only pay attention to the operating conditions and profitability of joint-stock companies, but also pay special attention to the net assets of stocks. The higher the net asset content, the greater the company's own capital and the stronger its ability to resist various risks.

3. liquidation value of stock. Liquidation value of shares refers to the actual value of each share when a joint-stock company goes bankrupt or liquidates after bankruptcy. Theoretically, the liquidation value per share of a stock should be consistent with the book value of the stock. However, when an enterprise goes bankrupt and liquidates, its property value is calculated according to the actual sales price, while when disposing of the property, its sales price is lower than the actual value. Therefore, the liquidation value of the stock is inconsistent with the net value of the stock, which is generally less than the net value. Share liquidation value is only used as the basis for determining the stock price when the joint-stock company is liquidated due to bankruptcy or other reasons, and it is meaningless in the process of stock issuance and circulation.

4. The market value of the stock. Stock market value, also known as stock market value, refers to the transaction price reached by both parties in the transaction process. The market value of stocks directly reflects the stock market and is the basis for investors to buy and sell stocks. Due to the influence of many factors, the market value of stocks is constantly changing. The stock market value is closely related to the stock price, which is the concentrated expression of the stock market value, and the former fluctuates with the change of the latter. In the stock market, investors analyze, judge and determine the stock price according to the change of the market value of the stock (stock market), so the stock price is usually the market value of the stock.

5. The intrinsic value of the stock. The intrinsic value of stock is the real value of stock at a certain moment, and it is also the investment value of stock. Calculating the intrinsic value of a stock requires a discount method.

Because the life span of listed companies, after-tax profit per share and average social return on investment are unknown, it is difficult to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks. In practical application, the predicted value is generally taken.

Two. Operating performance and stock price

Although there are various themes in stock speculation, in general, they are generally related to business performance or business performance. Therefore, in the stock market, the stock price is positively related to the operating performance of listed companies. The better the performance, the higher the stock price. If the performance is not good, the stock price will go down accordingly. But this is not absolute at all. The operating performance of some stocks is only a few cents per share, but its price is higher than that of stocks with performance dozens of times higher than it. This is normal in the stock market.

As the stock price is determined by competition, the final transaction price will be decided by the highest bidder as long as the shareholders are willing, have enough funds and abide by the law in the stock trading process.

Theoretically speaking, the influence of operating performance on stock price is usually expressed by two formulas, one is the static calculation formula of stock price, the other is the dynamic calculation formula, and the net calculation formula is as follows:

P=L/i

Where P is the stock price, L is the after-tax profit per share, and I is the average investment profit rate that investors can get when making other investments. Generally, savings rate is used instead, because savings is the most common and convenient investment method that investors can engage in at present.

The significance of this formula is that when investors can get the income I per yuan from other investments, if they want to get the income L from investing in stocks, the amount of funds they need to pay is P, and the income from investing in stocks is equal to other investments.

If the interest rate of one-year time deposit is 10.98% and the after-tax profit of a stock is 0.66 yuan per share, the price of the stock is 6.0 1 yuan according to the above formula. At this time, if you invest 6.0 1 yuan in stocks or deposit it in the bank, the investment income will be the same.

In the above formula, the stock price is directly proportional to the operating performance and inversely proportional to the average profit rate of other investments. If the operating performance of listed companies improves or the savings rate decreases, the stock price will rise. For example, after May 1996, the People's Bank of China lowered the interest rate of residents' savings twice, which led to the stock price in Shanghai stock market more than doubling.

But it is not accurate to calculate the stock price with this formula. In fact, the stock price of the stock market is not determined by this, and the factors that affect the stock price change are not only operating performance and average investment profit rate. In addition, the operating performance of listed companies will also change with the competition in the operating environment and product market. In the above example, if the operating performance of a listed company drops to 0.55 yuan per share in the next year, according to this formula, its share price will fall by the same extent as that in 5 yuan. If investors predict that the performance of listed companies will decline in the next year, they will not buy shares at the price of 6.0 1 yuan per share, but only at the price of 5 yuan.

The above method for calculating the stock price is the net value method. Assuming that the selected parameters such as after-tax profit and savings interest rate of the stock remain unchanged, the results will definitely have considerable errors.

Although it is difficult to express the stock price with an accurate formula, one thing is that it is always in direct proportion or positive correlation with the performance of listed companies, that is, after-tax profits. The greater the after-tax profit, the higher the investor's investment income, and correspondingly, the higher the stock price.

Third, the average profit rate and stock price.

The average profit rate is an objective law about capital flow, and its functions are as follows:

When there is a difference in the investment profit rate between the two departments, the funds will flow from the department with low profit rate to the department with high profit rate until the investment profit rate of the two departments is basically equal. To express the law of average profit rate in a popular phrase is: water flows downwards and funds go to places with high profit rate.

The stock price is directly affected by the supply of funds. As the capital entering the stock market increases, the stock price will rise. For example, as soon as the bullish news comes out, peripheral funds will enter the stock market one after another, causing the stock price to rise.

1994 The "three major policies" were announced at the end of July, 17,1995 After the announcement of the suspension of treasury bonds futures in May, a large amount of funds were induced to enter the market, which led to the stock market soaring to varying degrees. When the stock market funds are withdrawn, the stock price will fall.

When the investment profit rate in a certain field changes, there will be potential differences between the stock market and the investment profit rate in this field. According to the law of average profit rate, there will be capital flow between the stock market and the investment field, and the result of capital flow will cause the change of stock price.

When investors invest in the stock market, they expect to get excess profits, that is, to get higher than the average social return on investment. And all the operations (buying and selling) of investors in the stock market are the concentrated expression of the law of average profit rate. On the whole, the law of average profit rate has the following four effects on stock price.

1, positioning the stock price

The motivation for most investors to buy stocks is that the stock price will rise, and the increase within one year is definitely higher than the investment field they can set foot in. Otherwise, investors will invest their money in other areas with high profit margins. As investors continue to invest in the stock market, the stock price will gradually rise, which will lead to a decline in the stock price yield. When the result of the capital movement makes the stock price return close to the average level in other fields, the return of investors buying stocks and making other investments is basically equal. At this time, the flow of funds will tend to be flat, and the stock price will remain at a considerable level, neither rising nor falling. Therefore, the law of average profit rate has the function of locating stock prices.

For ordinary citizens, their economic strength is small, and they have to take care of their work. At this stage, their main investment channels are bank savings, bond purchase and stock investment. Because bank deposits are almost risk-free and do not need to spend too much time and energy, they are the first choice for ordinary citizens to invest. If you want to invest in stocks, you will generally take the bank interest rate as the expected return of stock investment. When the income from investing in stocks is greater than the interest rate of bank deposits, people will choose stocks; On the contrary, when the bank deposit rate is higher than the stock investment rate, people will choose to save. Therefore, when investors in a stock market are more rational and mature, the investment income of the stock market will be basically equal to the local one-year savings rate, so its share price will be stable at a corresponding level.

The investment profit rate of the stock market is usually measured by the reciprocal of the stock price return rate-the average price-earnings ratio of the stock market. Because the relationship between the investment profit rate of the stock market and the average P/E ratio is reciprocal, when the stock price yield is equal to the bank's one-year savings rate, there will be:

Average P/E ratio of stock market × one-year bank deposit rate = 1.

When the deposit interest rate of the bank is determined, the price-earnings ratio of the stock market will stabilize at a corresponding level, and the stock price will be determined accordingly.

Average price-earnings ratio of stock market = 1/ one-year bank deposit rate.

2, causing the stock price to rise and fall.

According to the law of average profit rate, when the investment profit rate around the stock market changes, funds always flow from the department with low profit rate to the department with high profit rate, which leads to the transfer of funds. At present, the main areas that affect the stock market funds are bank savings, bond market, futures market, real estate and so on. In addition, business, industrial investment and collection also have a certain impact on the stock market.

Bank savings and bond market: when the interest rates of savings and bonds are adjusted, the income balance between the stock market and the savings or bond market will be broken, and funds will be transferred to pursue higher profits. Specifically, when the interest rate of savings or bonds increases, the investment value of the stock market will decrease accordingly, and investors will sell stocks and put funds into savings or bonds, which will lead to a decline in stock prices; On the contrary, when the issuing interest rate of savings or bonds decreases, people will withdraw funds from the savings or bond market and invest in the stock market, which will eventually lead to an increase in stock prices.

Among the financial assets owned by China residents, savings deposits account for more than 90%, followed by bonds, and these two areas absorb the largest amount of funds. Therefore, the adjustment of bank interest rate or bond issuance rate has the greatest impact on the stock price. For example, 1996, the People's Bank of China lowered the deposit interest rate of residents twice, which led to a sharp rise in the stock prices of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.

Futures: Because futures have the characteristics of high risk and high return, the futures market in China has also absorbed a lot of hot money, and there are many securities business departments in China to act as agents for futures business, so it is very convenient to transfer funds between the stock market and futures.

When the futures market is hot, it will often attract funds from the stock market, leading to a downturn in the stock market and a decline in the stock price; When the futures market is light, the stock market is more abundant and the stock price is stronger. For example, on May 8, when the CSRC announced that it would suspend all treasury bond futures business, 1995, a large amount of funds quickly poured into the stock market, which eventually led to a sharp rise in the stock market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose by 3 1% and 23.5% respectively.

In addition, when the real estate industry, collection industry, commerce and industrial investment around the stock market are relatively prosperous, these areas will also attract some funds to flow out of the stock market due to the temptation of high profit margins. For example, in Wenzhou, China, because local residents are good at commercial and industrial investment and can achieve high profit rate in these industries, even when the market is hot, its securities trading business is relatively deserted compared with other cities.

Accordingly, the transfer of funds within the stock market will also lead to the rise and fall of stock prices. When investors think that a stock has investment value, there will be considerable funds pouring into the stock, which will promote its price to rise; When the prospect of a stock is not good, investors will sell the stock and withdraw funds from it, which will lead to the decline of the stock price. For example, when the interim annual report of 1996 was published, the performance of a stock was still more than 0.70 yuan per share. On the day of information disclosure, its price dropped by about 30%.

3, leading to the return of the stock price.

When the share price of a stock market rises too fast, the spread income of the stock will obviously exceed its territory. Under the temptation of high profits, the influx of peripheral funds will further raise the stock price and push the stock index up. Due to the inertia of capital influx, stock indexes tend to rise to relatively high points. At this time, the funds entering the stock market have been relatively surplus, and the price-earnings ratio is high. The excessive stock price is no longer attractive to funds. Compared with the surrounding investment markets, the return on investment in the stock market is obviously low. That is to say, the law of average profit rate will be applied to the stock market to guide funds to flow from the stock market to other investment markets, and some more rational investors will take the lead in withdrawing funds, and the stock price will start to fall, which will cause a joint marketing reaction and eventually lead to a stock market crash, which will make the stock index return to a level commensurate with the investment profit rate in the surrounding areas, which is also the reason for the stock market crash after the surge. On the other hand, when the stock market plummets and the stock price is too low, the stock price yield will increase, the price-earnings ratio will decrease, and the investment value of the stock will be significantly higher than other investment markets. At this time, under the action of the average profit rate, funds will be transferred from the surrounding markets to the stock market, leading to a rebound in the stock price.

In the late 1980s, Japan's Tokyo stock market rose by more than 30% for several years, and the spread income of the stock market was much higher than that of other industries, so the funds entering the stock market snowballed, pushing the Nikkei index from 1 in 1986 to more than 39,000 in 1989. During the period of 1995, the Nikkei index fell above 14000, only 38% of the highest point, and almost returned to the starting point from the end point. As of now, the Nikkei index is still at 2.

Wandering around eight o'clock Similarly, the Hong Kong stock market rose by more than 100% at 1993, and peaked at more than 12000 at the beginning of 1994, but today's Hang Seng Index is still hovering around 12000. The course of China stock market in the past five years is basically the same. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets started counting from 1990, 65438+February and1991April respectively. Due to the effect of getting rich by stock trading, China residents poured a lot of money into the stock market in just two years, which led to a sharp rise in stock prices. As of 1992, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose from 100 to 780 and 24 1 point respectively, with an average annual increase of 179% and 68% respectively. 1993 in the first half of the year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes reached an all-time high.

Four. Net assets and stock prices

The net assets of a stock is the actual amount of assets contained in each share of a listed company, also known as the book value or net value of the stock, and refers to the asset value contained in the stock calculated by accounting methods. It marks the economic strength of listed companies, because the operation of any enterprise is based on net assets. If the enterprise has too much debt and less net assets, it means that most of the operating results will be used to pay off debts; If there is too much debt, the enterprise will face the danger of bankruptcy.

Stock investment is different from bank savings. Because the interest rate of savings is fixed in advance, the income of savings is directly proportional to the amount of savings. The more you save, the greater the profit. The return on stock investment is only proportional to the number of stocks held, and more investment does not mean greater returns. Even if investors invest the same amount of money, the return on investment may vary greatly due to the different number of stocks they buy.

Since the return of stocks depends on the number of stocks rather than the price of stocks, and the net assets contained in each stock determine the operating strength and performance of listed companies, the net assets contained in each stock have a decisive impact on the stock price.

There is no fixed formula for the relationship between stock price and net assets per share.

Because in addition to net assets, the management level, technical equipment, market share and external image of products will all have an impact on the final operating efficiency of enterprises, and the impact of net assets on stock prices mainly comes from the law of average profit rate.

As mentioned above, due to the law of average profit rate, the return on net assets of enterprises will fluctuate at an average level. For listed companies, due to strict examination, flexible management mechanism and high management level, their profitability is generally higher than that of ordinary enterprises.

For example, in recent years, the average profit rate of enterprises in China is about 10%, while the average return on equity of listed companies is 16% in 1994 and 13.5% in 1995. The macro-economy is tightening, and the operating income of industrial enterprises is low.

The research shows that the average return on equity of listed companies in various countries is generally higher than the local average investment profit rate, but it will not exceed the range of 150%.

Therefore, only when the average stock price does not exceed 65438+ 0.5 times of net assets per share can the income from investing in the stock market be equivalent to the average value of bank savings or other investments. When the stock price exceeds 0.5 times the average net asset value of listed companies, the income from buying stocks is not as good as other investments.

The above conclusions are relative to the overall average level of the stock market and do not apply to one or a few listed companies. If a listed company has outstanding management level, high market share and long-term stability, advanced production means and technical equipment, it can certainly look up to its share price, but it cannot exceed three times its net assets. According to the statistical data of 1994, only two listed companies have a return on equity of more than 36%, and less than 1% of them are more than three times the average level, and the same is true of 1995.

The lower limit of the stock price can also be determined by the net asset content. As long as the business scope of listed companies does not belong to industries restricted by national policies or sunset industries, it is worthwhile to buy such stocks when their share prices fall below their net assets. When the stock price falls below the net asset content, listed companies are faced with the problem of being acquired and merged. For investors, instead of using the same funds to build a company of the same size as this listed company, it is better to buy it in the stock market. It not only saves a lot of pre-project work, such as declaration, selection and feasibility study, but also saves construction time by purchasing ready-made listed companies, and listed companies also have ready-made employees and sales networks to use. After a listed company is merged, the acquiring enterprise can reorganize its production, such as adjusting management personnel and product structure, so as to quickly improve its operating efficiency. From this, it can be considered that the lowest price of a stock can be set at more than 80% of its net assets per share.

For rational investors, the average price of buying stocks can be controlled between 80% and 150% of the average net asset value, namely:

0.8 × average net assets per share