The sudden strength of the dollar has dealt a great blow to the metal market. The prices of copper and precious metal gold and silver, which we have been paying attention to, have fallen sharply in the last two trading days, seriously damaging the popularity of market bulls. Before, we even thought that the rise of metal prices would benefit from the fall of the dollar, but now it seems that the negative effect of the dollar on the metal market is still extending.
The rise of the dollar caught the metal market off guard. Before the dollar fell, it was regarded as an important expectation, guiding us to be optimistic about the metal market as a whole. It was originally expected that the decline in the metal market would bottom out in the continuous decline of the US dollar, but it was the result of the rapid rebound of the US dollar. When the US dollar is facing the key competition for the 80-point 1 line in the important bottom area, or watching its final breakthrough direction is the best choice.
The dollar has pushed up the price of most metals. The above figure lists the trend of gold, silver and copper. The rapid decline almost constitutes a significant consistency of the pattern, or the market still has expectations for the rebound of the US dollar at such a low level. The decline has led to a directional breakthrough in the precious metal market, while copper, the basic metal, seems to be just a panic and has not yet reached the point of collapse. If the dollar rises further, or this decline will continue to deepen.
The spot market differentiation of copper and aluminum still exists. The spot copper market is still weak. We have predicted that copper prices may remain low, which is a bit cold this summer. As far as copper is concerned, or it is true, the pattern of continuous discount or price increase of copper will not last long due to the decline of consumption and the pressure of inventory. Whether there may be spot premium after the price continues to fall will directly affect the downside of copper prices next week. It is recommended to wait and see.
The market premium pattern of aluminum ingots remains unchanged. Although the overall premium has decreased compared with the previous period, the market still maintained such a high premium pattern before delivery, which shows the strength of the spot market. We expect that the strong pattern of this round of aluminum ingots will be maintained until delivery. Aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly at a low level. Whenever the price of aluminum ingots tends to be stable, we all say that the low price has appeared. At present, the price of aluminum ingots has shown a balanced trend of about 20,000. With the low inventory of aluminum ingots, or this inventory will remain at a low level for some time, just like this time last year. Inventory has become an important factor reflecting the consumption of aluminum ingots in the market, so we should pay close attention to the changes of inventory and premium structure.
In the aluminum ingot market, there may be an irregular order between the domestic three-month spread structure and the LME three-month spread structure. At present, the static ratio of domestic three-month aluminum ingots to LME three-month aluminum ingots is 7. 25. Considering that aluminum ingots fell overnight, the China market did not fall. It is estimated that the trading ratio on Monday was 7. 18, three-month static warehouse profit 1226 yuan/ton. It is suggested to boldly intervene, buy domestic aluminum ingots, throw them at London aluminum ingots and trade for three months.
Ferroalloy online, China.