According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in 2007, China imported 0.304 million tons of PVC/KLOC-and exported 753,000 tons. The main import and export customs are Tianjin, Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou and Jiujiang. As can be seen from customs statistics, PVC has three tax numbers in customs statistics. ① ID number: 3904 1000: PVC in primary shape, without other substances; ② ID number: 39042 100, unplasticized primary shape PVC③ ID number: 39042200, primary shape is plasticized PVC. According to the three tax codes listed by the customs, there are nearly a thousand related enterprises. From the analysis of the list of import enterprises, most of them are downstream processing enterprises, and they are direct users, so the import price is a very important factor for them. In addition, from the investigation of enterprises, we know that some enterprises have higher requirements for PVC materials, and some enterprises export processed products, so they will choose imported materials.
In 2007, with the end of the transition period of China's entry into WTO, the domestic market will be fully open and the market competition will be more intense. At the same time, the change of international crude oil price and RMB exchange rate will directly affect the change of PVC import and export pattern in China, which should be paid close attention to.
Import situation
More than 90% of the country's PVC resin imports are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas (Guangdong, Shanghai, Fujian and Jiangsu). According to customs data, the top five provinces and cities in PVC import and consumption are all eastern coastal provinces and cities. In 2007, there were 19 provinces and cities that imported and consumed primary PVC, and the main import flows were Guangdong, Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shandong. The total import volume of the top five provinces and cities accounts for 97.48% of the total import volume, while that of Guangdong, Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shandong accounts for 74.64%, 9.26% and 6.6% respectively. From the perspective of importing countries, the United States, the Russian Federation, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province are the main importing countries and regions.
According to customs data, there were 17 provinces and cities importing and consuming unplasticized PVC in 2007, and the main import flows were Hebei, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shandong. The total import volume of the top five importing and consuming provinces and cities accounts for 96.79% of the total import volume, while the imports of Hebei, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces account for 36.67% and 27% of the total import volume respectively.
In 2007, there were 20 provinces and cities that imported and consumed primary plasticized PVC, and the main import flows were Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian. The total import volume of the top five provinces and cities accounts for 85.36% of the total import volume, while that of Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian accounts for 48.8 1% and 10% respectively.
In 2007, 17 provinces and cities imported and consumed waste plastics and vinyl chloride polymer scraps, the main import flows were Guangdong Province, Hunan Province and Zhejiang Province, and the total import volume of the top five provinces and cities accounted for the proportion of the total import volume.
96.23%, Guangdong, Hunan and Zhejiang provinces accounted for 85.4%, 3.67% and 3.27% of the total import respectively.
Export situation
The production of PVC has developed rapidly, and the export volume has increased year by year. With the rapid development of China's PVC industry, China's PVC import and export pattern has undergone major changes, with exports expanding rapidly and imports decreasing year by year. In 2007, China exported 753,000 tons of PVC, up 50.8% compared with 2006, and the average export price was 90 1 USD/ton, up 16.7% compared with 2006. Imports were 65,438+0,304,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 65,438+00.2%, and the average import price reached 980 USD/ton.
Although the absolute quantity of China's PVC exports is still far less than that of imports, compared with the previous import and export pattern of China's PVC, the export volume is almost zero, China's PVC industry has made a substantial leap, and the export expansion rate ranks first among the five synthetic resins.
Since China imposed anti-dumping duties on imported PVC originating from the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and Taiwan Province Province of China in 2003 (Announcement No.48 of the Ministry of Commerce in 2003), the production of PVC in China has developed rapidly and its export volume has increased year by year.
China's PVC exports are mainly based on general trade, while imports are mainly based on processing trade. In 2007, China exported 489,000 tons of PVC by general trade, up 35.5% year-on-year, accounting for 65% of the total export. The average export price was USD 884/ton, up 65,438+06.2% year-on-year. In addition, the export of feed processing trade has also increased to a certain extent, with the export volume reaching 243,000 tons, up 84% year-on-year. The storage of re-export goods and small-scale border trade in the bonded area have increased substantially, with an increase of more than 500%.
China's PVC export market is relatively scattered. Statistics show that in 2007, China * * * exported PVC to 1 19 countries (regions) all over the world, among which India and Russia were the two most important exporters. In 2007, China exported 256,000 tons to India, a substantial increase of 1 16.6% year-on-year. The export volume accounts for 34% of the total export volume, and the average export price is 84 1 USD/ton. Exports to Russia were106,000 tons, up by 185%, accounting for 14% of all exports, and the average export price was 984 USD/ton. Provide tools for PVC enterprises to avoid and transfer risks.
In 2008, the PVC industry in China was affected by the international financial crisis, natural disasters, policy adjustment, rising prices of upstream raw materials, shrinking downstream demand and many other unfavorable factors, and its survival was in trouble. After July last year, the international crude oil price plummeted, which caused the price of PVC to drop from 9000 yuan per ton to 10/65438+5000 yuan in October, which brought great impact to PVC production enterprises. Recently, affected by the rising price of calcium carbide and the shutdown and overhaul of enterprises, the price of PVC rebounded to about 6300-6400 yuan per ton.
Due to the lack of price early warning mechanism, the fluctuation of spot price of PVC leads production enterprises to dare not increase the operating rate when the price rises to make up for the previous losses. Trading enterprises dare not expand their business scale because they can't see the direction clearly, so they can only watch the losses of enterprises helplessly, and there is no effective tool to avoid risks in the process of price fluctuation. The introduction of PVC futures of Dashang Institute will become an important tool for related enterprises to avoid and transfer risks, further optimize the production structure of domestic chemical industry and provide more investment opportunities for investors.
Price discovery helps enterprises get rid of blindness
The unique price discovery function of futures price is helpful for enterprises to realize the stable operation and sustainable development of the industry. At present, China's PVC industry lacks centralized and authoritative reference prices, and after the introduction of PVC futures, the market can predict the future spot product prices according to the price discovery function of futures.
It is helpful to optimize the price formation mechanism of PVC.
Although the output and consumption of PVC in China reached 8.82 million tons and 9.25 million tons respectively in 2008, it has become the largest producer and consumer of PVC in the world. However, due to the large number and dispersion of chlor-alkali enterprises in China, the pricing is arbitrary and the right to speak is weak. Once introduced, PVC futures will set a price benchmark for the PVC industry. With the help of PVC futures, China PVC industry will gain certain pricing power in the region, just like soybean and copper futures now. In the international trade of PVC, China has gradually changed from a net importer to a net exporter, so carrying out PVC futures trading is conducive to obtaining international pricing power, and enterprises can gain more say in the international trade of raw materials and products. Consumption situation of PVC
The downstream of PVC industrial chain is plastic processing enterprises. According to product types, PVC processing enterprises are mainly plastic processing enterprises such as pipes and profiles. According to the statistical data provided by China Plastics Processing Association, by the end of 2006, there were 1097 PVC processing enterprises. In recent years, the consumption of PVC in China has increased steadily.
Judging from the pattern of PVC industrial chain in China, the layout of PVC industrial chain in China has such a characteristic. The production of PVC raw materials by calcium carbide method is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other provinces with more coal resources, while the downstream processing enterprises are more concentrated in Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Liaoning and other provinces and cities. At the same time, several large plastic trading markets and electronic trading markets have been formed, such as Yuyao Plastic Market in Zhejiang, Guangdong Plastic Exchange, Linyi in Shandong and Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu.
Due to a certain import and export volume of PVC, affected by the downstream processing market distribution and the geographical distribution of plastic products export enterprises, PVC products enterprises are mostly concentrated in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces and cities, and there are also many production enterprises in other central and coastal provinces and cities.
Consumption characteristics
North China: The production capacity of PVC is greater than the demand of local processing industry, and about 35%-40% of the supply is sold all over the country every year, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Shanghai as the key sales areas, because the PVC processing industry in these areas is developing rapidly, and many of them are export-oriented joint ventures. On the one hand, it has become the main base for processing materials, on the other hand, it imports a large number of foreign resins. Therefore, it is a gathering area for domestic PVC resin sales. Due to the geographical location and traffic advantages in North China, with the continuous increase of transportation bottlenecks and freight rates in recent years, the sales in surrounding areas have become the sales focus of PVC production enterprises.
East China: The production enterprises are relatively concentrated and the production processes are complex, including calcium carbide method, ethylene method and mixed method. Sales focus on the province and surrounding areas. The sales of Shanghai chlor-alkali, Jiangdong Chemical and Wuxi Chemical in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai account for 70%-85% of the total sales. Shanghai \ Nanjing \ Wenzhou \ Hangzhou \ Taizhou is the distribution center of imported goods in this area. Therefore, a large number of offshore and offshore PVC resin sources spread to various markets in East China. There are also many local middlemen engaged in PVC trade, who undertake PVC sales for chlor-alkali enterprises in North China, Northeast China, Northwest China and Central China, mainly facing small and medium-sized processing enterprises.
South China: In Minnan and Guangdong markets, only Nanning Chemical and Southeast Electrochemical are large-scale PVC producers, but their demand ranks first in the country. The production capacity of Nanning Chemical in Fujian is 1.2 million tons, but the demand for PVC in Fujian market is more than 1 10,000 tons, and many of them need other regions and imported sources. Guangdong Province is still the largest distribution center for PVC import and processing in China. PVC traders in the Pearl River Delta are the most concentrated areas in China. Guangdong PVC market is a barometer of the national PVC market. The downstream of Panyu is mainly wire and cable, the downstream of Dongguan is mainly plastic-steel doors and windows, the downstream of Shantou is mainly slippers and soles, and the downstream of Foshan Shunde is mainly pipes. Consumer contracts in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Jiangsu provinces account for 70% of the total national sales.
Delivery procedure
1) Take SG5 first-class products and superior products that meet the national standards of PVC as the delivery quality standards.
The quality standard of PVC futures delivery follows the national standard system, and products that meet the quality requirements of national first-class products and excellent products can enter the futures market for delivery.
2) PVC produced by ethylene method and PVC produced by calcium carbide method are not distinguished.
PVC is polymerized from vinyl chloride, which can be obtained by ethylene method or calcium carbide method. However, the PVC obtained after the final polymerization is indistinguishable in the national standard, and it is impossible to determine whether it is ethylene or calcium carbide through inspection. Therefore, PVC futures delivery goods do not distinguish between ethylene and calcium carbide.
First of all, from the spot market situation, the quality of ethylene is pure and uniform, and the price is usually about 200 yuan/ton higher than that of calcium carbide, but the price difference is unstable, which is greatly affected by market supply and demand. For example, there is no difference between Tianjin Daguhua's ethylene material and South China Xinjiang Tianye's calcium carbide. In addition, although some special-purpose products have special requirements for ethylene materials, such as food packaging materials and medical infusion equipment. This proportion is very small, less than 10% of the total consumption of PVC SG5 materials. In the remaining 90% consumption, which material does not affect the production of downstream processing enterprises?
Secondly, in terms of national standards, China's current national standard for PVC is to determine the model and grade of PVC according to the physical and chemical properties of the final product, and PVC produced by ethylene method and calcium carbide method is measured within a unified framework, and there is no difference. And from the actual production quality, the quality of PVC products produced by ethylene method or calcium carbide method can meet the requirements of national standards.
3) SG5-type first-class products that meet the national standards are selected as the standard products for delivery, and high-quality products are delivered at no premium.
First of all, from the production point of view, production enterprises mainly produce first-class products or first-class products, and many enterprises regard the first-class product qualification rate as the assessment index of production workshops. For example, the qualified rate of first-class products of Zhejiang Juhua reached 97%, and a small number of qualified products were mostly transitional materials for maintenance and debugging, mostly first-class products and first-class products in spot trade circulation.
Secondly, in terms of quality inspection, according to the sampling results of common brands commissioned by CCIC and SGS, the proportion of first-class products that meet the national standards exceeds 85%. Among the 23 batches inspected by CCIC, 17 batches of products are excellent products, and 8 batches of products inspected by SGS are also excellent products.
In addition, due to the strong substitutability of first-class products and first-class products in the spot market, downstream consumption is not treated differently. From the quality standards, there is little difference between the two indicators. In spot trade, there is usually no special distinction between first-class products and first-class products, and the price difference between them is at most 50 yuan/ton, which accounts for a small proportion, about 0.5% ~ 0.9%, relative to the value of the product itself.
4) Implement the recommended brand launching system.
In 2007, Dashang adopted the recommended brand delivery system in LLDPE futures for the first time. After nearly two years of market operation experience, the system can reduce the cost of ex-factory inspection to a certain extent and reflect the unified quality characteristics of industrial products. Considering that PVC and LLDPE belong to five major resin products, they have many similarities. So PVC futures still follow this law. For the recommended brand products produced by the recommended manufacturer, if investors can provide the quality inspection certificate and the original quality commitment letter issued by the manufacturer, the registered warehouse receipt can be exempted from inspection.
When choosing recommended brands, the following factors are mainly considered: first, according to the spot trading habits, choose manufacturers and brands with high market recognition; Second, ensure sufficient delivery, and all brands that have reached a certain production scale and quality control level can enter the recommended brands; Third, fully consider the qualifications of manufacturers and choose brands of large-scale production enterprises with market competitive advantages. According to the above principles, Dashang Institute has identified 13 recommended brands among more than 90 production enterprises, covering 10 provinces and cities, with production capacity accounting for more than 50% of the total.
5) The delivery place is the delivery warehouse designated by Dalian Commodity Exchange.
In order to realize the function of price discovery and risk avoidance in the futures market, the delivery place should be located in the region with the most representative price and at the mobile node with the largest transaction volume, and the delivery cost should be competitive to avoid the reverse flow of spot. At the same time, the delivery place should have reliable and guaranteed transportation and storage conditions to meet the needs of mass delivery under special circumstances. According to the production and consumption pattern, trade direction, price representativeness and warehousing and logistics characteristics of PVC market, we take seven cities in East China, such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Changzhou, and Guangzhou and Foshan in South China as futures delivery places, and there is no premium between regions.