importent information

1. Freight rate of dry bulk cargo: BDI index 127 1 point on August 23rd, +0. 1% quarter-on-quarter and -68.9% year-on-year.

2. Container freight rate: 19 In the week of August, the SCFI container freight rate index was 3,429.83 points, which was -3.7% month-on-month and -2 1.0% year-on-year, of which the container freight rate from Shanghai to Meixi was 5,782 USD /FEU, which was -6.0% month-on-month and-2.4% year-on-year. Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is 4788 USD /TEU, which is -3.7% from the previous month and -35.3% from the same period last year.

3. In July 2022, the crude steel output of 64 countries in the world was 654.38+49.3 million tons, down 6.5% year-on-year. Among them, in July 2022, the national crude steel output was 810.4 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year; India's crude steel output 1065438+ 10,000 tons, up 3.2% year-on-year.

4. On August 23rd, the monthly report released by the Bundesbank showed that the German economy was afraid of falling into recession this winter, and the inflation rate, which had exceeded 7% for five consecutive months, was likely to reach 10% in autumn. According to the report, experts expect the inflation rate to hit a new high in autumn.

5. As of August 23rd, the foreign trade import and export situation of June-July 3rd, 20221provinces and cities has been released. Judging from the total import and export value, the total import and export value of Guangdong's foreign trade from June 5438 to July was 4,602.99 billion yuan, ranking first in the country.

6. Last week, the total iron ore inventory of seven ports in Australia and Brazil was 6.5438+0.2223 million tons, an increase of 786,000 tons from the previous month, slightly higher than the average level this year.

7. This week, Mysteel counted 45-port iron ore138.59 million tons, down 4 1 10,000 tons from the previous month; At the same time, the iron ore inventory of Port 47 was 6.5438+0.4453 million tons, down 450,000 tons from the previous month.

market outlook

In terms of containers, inflation is expected to continue to hit a new high in the context of the European energy crisis. Germany's electricity price broke through the 700 euro mark for the first time. The market expects German inflation to rise to 65,438+00% in autumn, and the demand side pressure in Europe and America is gradually emerging. It is predicted that the export growth rate of China will obviously weaken in the fourth quarter. The shortage of energy crisis in Europe may increase the imports of structural categories such as photovoltaics and chemicals in the short term, but in the long run, the intensification of recession under the background of high inflation will lead to a sharp decline in terminal demand. It is expected that the short-term container freight rate will continue to weaken. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand pattern of container transportation has been reversed, and the trend of weakening freight rates in the medium and long term remains unchanged.

In terms of dry bulk cargo, the recent high temperature weather in the northern hemisphere is beneficial to the consumption of thermal coal, and the daily consumption of domestic power plants has increased. Subsequently, with the easing of high temperature weather, demand is expected to fall back. Europe restarted coal to support coal demand, but in the context of high temperature and drought leading to difficulties in inland river transportation and port dredging, the speed of coal import is expected to slow down. In terms of iron ore, the demand for steel in major economies in the world has slowed down under the background of recession. The recovery of real estate and infrastructure in China has not exceeded market expectations. The resumption of production of steel mills is still in doubt under the background of power cut, and the demand for iron ore is still under great pressure, focusing on the degree of infrastructure development in China in the second half of the year. In terms of food, the demand for food in South America is average, and Ukraine's food exports are gradually recovering. The short-term influence of the low water level of the Rhine River on the navigation of ships continues. According to the forecast, the water level of the Rhine River will drop again after a short-term rise in the near future, and the demand for dry bulk cargo will be restricted by port opening. It is expected that the short-term freight rate will continue to be under pressure.

Soybean/soybean meal

External disk situation

Overnight, CBOT soybean index fell by 0. 1 1% to close at 1467.9 cents/pu, while US soybean meal index rose by 0.68% to close at 428 USD/short ton.