What are the influencing factors of the Monkey City?

Lifting the ban on large and small non-tradable shares

The share-trading reform has been completed institutionally, but there is still a process to implement full circulation at the market level. In 2008, 130 billion fully-circulated shares were lifted, with a market value equivalent to 3 trillion. Of course, according to common sense, the possibility of reducing the circulation of these shares, especially state-owned shares, is quite small, especially for the controlling shareholders. The three documents issued by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in 2007 have minimized the impact of the reduction. But no matter how small it is, if calculated based on the actual incidence rate of 20%, the market will still need to provide 600 billion in acquisition funds. The scale of 600 billion has exceeded the scale of IPOs in 2007.

Financing scale

In 2007, the financing amount was about 450 billion, and refinancing was about 350 billion. The total amount added up to about 800 billion. No one knows what kind of scale it will maintain in 2008; no one knows whether the management will take into account the capital needs of large and small non-reducing holdings; no one knows whether the large-cap blue-chip money-trap financing and refinancing will Due to restrictions, no one knows whether Ping An's huge financing is just an isolated case.

GEM

GEM is actually a risk board. Its timely introduction will be helpful to solve the financing difficulties for the development of China's small and medium-sized enterprises, and will also promote the sustainable development of China's economy. . However, the launch of GEM also requires funds. If the funds required to reach 500 companies a year are only 100 billion, which is not a large amount in a bull market, then it is a moderate problem in a weak market. Whether the launch of the GEM should be coordinated with the return of large-cap blue chips and refinancing in the main board market? Will there be vicious competition between the main board and the GEM for funds? Investors have no clear expectations and management has no clear arrangements.

Stock Index Futures

As a systematic improvement of two-way trading, the launch of stock index futures is a matter of time, but the timing is also a matter of certainty. The launch of bull market will help the rise, and the launch of the bear market will help the fall. . Investors must now try to figure out the management's thoughts. Is it going to suppress the index or push it up? The management also needs to consider whether the launch of stock index futures will trap retail investors in the same way as the launch of gold futures, whether it will become a scapegoat for everyone's investment failure. After all, stock index futures will also divert some market funds.

Stamp duty

The stamp duty in 2007 was as high as 200.5 billion, enough to finance two GEMs. The same funds go to different directions and have completely different effects. The former increases investment costs, while the latter boosts economic development. With funds so tight in 2008, unilateral stamp duty collection can support a GEM. When will such good things that benefit the country and the people be put into action? The macro economy does not support a bear market, and the financing orientation does not support a bull market. The Chinese stock market can only choose the monkey market.