In the letter, Jiangxi Zhili pointed out that the reason for the price increase was "the rising price of raw materials". Indeed, as an essential raw material for the cathode of lithium ferrous phosphate, the price of lithium carbonate has risen many times this year due to insufficient supply capacity and increased downstream installed capacity.
Lithium with different valence states
Compared with ternary lithium batteries, lithium carbonate has a particularly significant effect on lithium ferrous phosphate. The cost of lithium carbonate in lithium ferrous phosphate accounts for more than 30% of the material cost, and the price per ton of lithium carbonate increases by 1 1,000 yuan, which means that the cost per ton of lithium ferrous phosphate cathode will increase at least by more than 300 yuan. However, it accounts for no more than 10% of the cost of ternary lithium materials, so the price increase of lithium carbonate has little effect on the cost of ternary lithium.
Outbreak, supply contraction
It is understood that there are two main reasons for the increase in the price of lithium carbonate: First, the demand side of the global demand for new energy vehicles has increased in the peak season, and it is expected to seize the momentum at the end of the year; Second, lithium extraction from salt lakes in winter at the supply end was blocked, and some overseas upstream mines stopped production, resulting in shrinking supply.
In terms of supply, although China is rich in lithium resources, it is mainly concentrated in high-altitude cold areas such as Qinghai and Tibet. On the one hand, the mining environment is harsh, on the other hand, the local infrastructure construction is relatively weak. Therefore, although China's lithium reserves account for 22% of the world's total, there is still a large proportion of lithium ore to be imported.
However, with the outbreak of overseas epidemics, major lithium-producing countries such as Australia and South America's "lithium triangle" (Bolivia, Chile and Argentina) have successively implemented isolation measures. Among them, two mining areas in Argentina, with an annual output of 22,000 tons and 1.75 million tons respectively, have successively announced the reduction of production and production. At the same time, South Africa, Indonesia and other countries have also issued bans, which have hindered mining and transportation and greatly reduced the supply side.
Three cars "with goods", the demand has increased significantly?
On the demand side, the domestic demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has risen sharply. 108-June, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery doubled for three consecutive months, increasing by 100.2%, 146. 1% and 127.5% respectively.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, from June 5438 to June 20201October, the load of power batteries in China was 5.9GWh, up 44.0% year-on-year, and the growth trend continued. Among them, the ternary lithium battery was loaded with 3.4GWh, up 15.7% year-on-year and down19.1%month-on-month; The lithium iron phosphate battery was loaded with 2.4GWh, up 65,438+027.5% year-on-year and 3.5% quarter-on-quarter.
In the field of passenger cars, BYD Han EV and Wuling Hong Guang MINI? The hot sales of EV and the new Tesla Model3 have played a "bringing goods" role in increasing the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Starting from 10, Tesla (Shanghai) factory mass-produced standard endurance models? 3 equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery from contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., as the current sales king, model? The change of 3 naturally led to a sharp increase in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
At the same time, as BYD, which has always adhered to the lithium ferrous phosphate route, its main model is Han? 5438+ 10 The sales volume of EV reached 5055 vehicles in June, and it is estimated that the average power consumption of bicycles is about 76.9kWh (the power consumption of different bicycles is different). In June+10/October, 5438, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery contributed by this model alone reached 388.73MWh.
Another hot-selling model-Hong Guang MINI? 10 EV sales reached 23,762 vehicles. Although the capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery on this model is only 13.9kWh, such a high sales volume is expected to drive the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery.
The appearance of these three on-board models has undoubtedly played an important role in promoting the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, it can be seen from the insurance data released by the Association that a number of lithium iron phosphate batteries with a price below 6,543,800 yuan are affected by the policy of new energy vehicles going to the countryside, which indirectly drives the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries to rise rapidly.
Unexpectedly, despite the booming production and sales of downstream models, the price of lithium ferrous phosphate is still in an inertial decline. By the end of the first ten days of 1 1, the price of power lithium ferrous phosphate including tax is only 32-34,000/ton, and there are still 3-6 months of accounting period. This situation can barely level the cost for lithium ferrous phosphate production enterprises, but with the rising price of raw materials, many enterprises are facing the situation of more sales but thanks to it.
With the continuous innovation of materials, technology and packaging of lithium ferrous phosphate by new energy head enterprises, the performance of lithium ferrous phosphate has been steadily improved. Considering its advantages in cost, life and safety, more models will adopt this battery in the future. Therefore, although the head enterprises only raise prices for small and medium-sized retail investors at present, if this high demand continues and the prices of raw materials continue to rise, the production enterprises will have to transfer the costs to the downstream, so that the price increase will be implemented. Facing the double pressure of tight supply and rising cost, the main engine factory whose terminal price is "only falling but not rising" has just ushered in sales growth and may face new sales pressure.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.